2026 midterms Results are inFinal forecastSenate D 81%House D 91%Governors D 91%How the forecast did
Search
The Weighting Room
FINAL · RESULTS VS FORECAST
TX GovHinojosa D +7.0forecast R +0.2SC SenAndrews D +4.5forecast D +1.1FL GovDonalds R +1.3forecast R +1.6NE SenRicketts R +6.5forecast I +2.0NE GovPillen R +8.2forecast R +3.6TX SenTalarico D +9.7forecast D +3.7FL SenMoody R +2.9forecast R +3.7IA SenTurek D +4.2forecast D +3.7KS GovHolscher leads D +0.5forecast D +3.8GA GovBottoms D +8.6forecast D +3.9KS SenHamilton D +5.0forecast D +5.0AK SenSullivan leads R +0.9forecast D +5.1OH GovActon D +7.2forecast D +5.7ME SenJackson D +8.1forecast D +5.7NV GovFord D +7.2forecast D +6.1WI GovCrowley D +8.4forecast D +6.5OH SenBrown D +4.2forecast D +6.7MI SenEl-Sayed D +6.6forecast D +8.8

2028 forecast · New York · Republican primary

New York Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 59% of runs
52.5%Vance's projected share
1,130,714Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance52.5%593,48459%34.5%
Rubio31.4%355,11333%21.0%
Trump Jr.6.1%68,6937%7.5%
DeSantis0.9%10,6291%6.6%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New York votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
VanceRubio

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New York
America First44%
Suburban professional21%
Libertarian16%
Populist working class15%
Republican leaning independents2%

Black 3.3%, Hispanic 7.2%, Asian and other 3.6%, under 30 8.6%, 65 and up 33.6%, college graduates 51.9%, women 43.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 936,527 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,130,714 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Suffolk County119,293Vance53.4%Rubio30.4%
Nassau County103,066Vance52.8%Rubio31.1%
Kings County91,025Vance49.5%Rubio34.7%
New York County79,823Rubio42.8%Vance42.5%
Queens County76,612Vance56.1%Rubio27.0%
Erie County64,866Vance50.6%Rubio33.8%
Westchester County60,536Vance48.0%Rubio36.5%
Monroe County50,056Vance48.8%Rubio35.8%
Richmond County32,362Vance55.3%Rubio28.2%
Onondaga County32,138Vance49.4%Rubio35.1%
Bronx County31,499Vance53.8%Rubio29.0%
Orange County26,356Vance55.5%Rubio27.9%
Rockland County22,570Vance54.4%Rubio29.2%
Dutchess County22,163Vance52.4%Rubio31.6%
Saratoga County20,291Vance51.1%Rubio33.2%
Albany County20,054Vance49.9%Rubio34.5%
Oneida County16,304Vance57.5%Rubio25.8%
Niagara County16,198Vance57.1%Rubio26.3%
Ulster County13,928Vance51.7%Rubio32.5%
Broome County13,425Vance55.2%Rubio28.4%
Rensselaer County11,798Vance53.4%Rubio30.5%
Schenectady County10,163Vance53.5%Rubio30.4%
Chautauqua County9,402Vance58.6%Rubio24.5%
Ontario County9,296Vance53.1%Rubio30.9%
Oswego County9,110Vance58.2%Rubio25.0%
Putnam County9,097Vance52.7%Rubio31.2%
Steuben County7,854Vance59.3%Rubio23.7%
Wayne County7,409Vance57.8%Rubio25.5%
St. Lawrence County7,165Vance58.2%Rubio25.0%
Jefferson County7,004Vance58.3%Rubio24.8%
Tompkins County6,245Vance45.0%Rubio40.1%
Chemung County5,981Vance57.5%Rubio25.9%
Cattaraugus County5,874Vance60.1%Rubio22.7%
Cayuga County5,759Vance58.3%Rubio24.9%
Warren County5,601Vance55.2%Rubio28.5%
Sullivan County5,530Vance57.8%Rubio25.4%
Clinton County5,485Vance56.5%Rubio26.9%
Madison County5,415Vance57.0%Rubio26.4%
Columbia County5,179Vance53.6%Rubio30.3%
Livingston County5,141Vance57.4%Rubio26.0%
Herkimer County5,082Vance60.0%Rubio22.9%
Genesee County4,967Vance59.7%Rubio23.2%
Washington County4,703Vance59.1%Rubio23.9%
Otsego County4,434Vance55.9%Rubio27.7%
Fulton County4,219Vance60.2%Rubio22.6%
Tioga County4,100Vance58.8%Rubio24.3%
Greene County4,054Vance58.0%Rubio25.2%
Chenango County3,813Vance60.0%Rubio22.9%
Delaware County3,777Vance58.7%Rubio24.5%
Wyoming County3,536Vance61.1%Rubio21.4%
Allegany County3,517Vance60.0%Rubio22.9%
Montgomery County3,517Vance59.3%Rubio23.6%
Cortland County3,431Vance56.3%Rubio27.1%
Orleans County3,206Vance60.7%Rubio21.9%
Franklin County2,994Vance58.4%Rubio24.7%
Essex County2,934Vance55.9%Rubio27.8%
Schoharie County2,737Vance59.3%Rubio23.7%
Lewis County2,392Vance60.9%Rubio21.7%
Seneca County2,365Vance58.2%Rubio25.0%
Yates County1,698Vance58.5%Rubio24.7%
Schuyler County1,576Vance58.7%Rubio24.4%
Hamilton County589Vance59.1%Rubio24.0%