2028 forecast · Kansas · Republican primary
Kansas Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 58% of runs
35.0%Vance's projected share
296,873Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 35.0% | 103,829 | 58% | 33.7% |
| Rubio | 29.0% | 86,077 | 35% | 20.5% |
| Trump Jr. | 16.2% | 47,997 | 5% | 8.8% |
| DeSantis | 6.0% | 17,716 | 1% | 6.5% |
| Haley | 3.3% | 9,677 | <1% | 3.3% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.5% | 4,506 | <1% | 3.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Kansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceRubioTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in KansasBlack 0.9%, Hispanic 3.9%, Asian and other 1.6%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 45.4%, women 44.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 78,978 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 296,873 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | 70,682 | Rubio | 53.0% | Vance | 21.2% |
| Sedgwick County | 45,440 | Vance | 37.5% | Rubio | 27.7% |
| Shawnee County | 16,634 | Vance | 35.8% | Rubio | 31.8% |
| Douglas County | 10,880 | Rubio | 57.6% | Vance | 17.3% |
| Wyandotte County | 8,612 | Vance | 34.8% | Rubio | 26.2% |
| Leavenworth County | 8,150 | Vance | 38.1% | Rubio | 27.9% |
| Butler County | 7,954 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 19.5% |
| Reno County | 6,335 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Saline County | 5,440 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 19.5% |
| Riley County | 4,897 | Rubio | 46.1% | Vance | 25.3% |
| Miami County | 4,616 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Crawford County | 3,713 | Vance | 40.6% | Rubio | 23.1% |
| Harvey County | 3,603 | Vance | 41.1% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| McPherson County | 3,470 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 18.8% |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,451 | Vance | 42.5% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Ellis County | 3,375 | Vance | 41.5% | Rubio | 20.8% |
| Cowley County | 3,268 | Vance | 43.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.8% |
| Montgomery County | 3,144 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Franklin County | 3,115 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Lyon County | 2,888 | Vance | 38.6% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Barton County | 2,830 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Sumner County | 2,716 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Finney County | 2,602 | Vance | 37.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.5% |
| Dickinson County | 2,424 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Jefferson County | 2,410 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 22.4% |
| Cherokee County | 2,262 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Ford County | 2,064 | Vance | 36.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Osage County | 2,025 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Labette County | 1,882 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Geary County | 1,829 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Neosho County | 1,715 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.8% |
| Atchison County | 1,714 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Bourbon County | 1,711 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Nemaha County | 1,594 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Jackson County | 1,580 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.7% |
| Marion County | 1,501 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Linn County | 1,409 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Allen County | 1,399 | Vance | 44.6% | Trump Jr. | 25.7% |
| Marshall County | 1,272 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Coffey County | 1,160 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Seward County | 1,131 | Trump Jr. | 35.4% | Vance | 34.5% |
| Cloud County | 1,092 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Clay County | 1,084 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.7% |
| Kingman County | 1,081 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Brown County | 1,057 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.7% |
| Rice County | 1,055 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Pratt County | 1,046 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 25.5% |
| Thomas County | 1,027 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Anderson County | 1,023 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.5% |
| Wilson County | 994 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Doniphan County | 984 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Wabaunsee County | 984 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Russell County | 895 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Mitchell County | 891 | Vance | 44.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Ottawa County | 859 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Phillips County | 816 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Greenwood County | 790 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Washington County | 777 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Sherman County | 746 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Rooks County | 735 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Harper County | 711 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Morris County | 705 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Ellsworth County | 703 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Republic County | 687 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Pawnee County | 675 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Grant County | 654 | Vance | 38.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Scott County | 650 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Gray County | 643 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Norton County | 638 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Barber County | 634 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Smith County | 575 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Stevens County | 575 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Stafford County | 538 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Osborne County | 508 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Meade County | 500 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Jewell County | 467 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Trego County | 467 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Rush County | 451 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Chautauqua County | 436 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Sheridan County | 427 | Vance | 43.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Lincoln County | 420 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Gove County | 418 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Ness County | 417 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Decatur County | 415 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Logan County | 413 | Vance | 44.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Rawlins County | 413 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Woodson County | 412 | Vance | 45.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Cheyenne County | 409 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Elk County | 385 | Vance | 43.6% | Trump Jr. | 32.1% |
| Kearny County | 381 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.7% |
| Chase County | 378 | Vance | 44.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Haskell County | 367 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Edwards County | 365 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Graham County | 352 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Morton County | 328 | Vance | 40.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.2% |
| Kiowa County | 318 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Clark County | 299 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Hodgeman County | 288 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Wichita County | 259 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Lane County | 256 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Comanche County | 250 | Vance | 44.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Hamilton County | 242 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Wallace County | 239 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Stanton County | 193 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Greeley County | 179 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
RubioFavorite, wins 66% of runs
35.5%Rubio's projected share
296,873Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 35.5% | 105,238 | 66% | 30.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 27.7% | 82,311 | 27% | 15.5% |
| DeSantis | 14.5% | 42,959 | 6% | 10.9% |
| Haley | 7.1% | 21,004 | <1% | 4.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.8% | 14,134 | <1% | 5.8% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 1,753 | <1% | 4.1% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 1,051 | <1% | 3.6% |
| Carlson | 0.3% | 916 | <1% | 2.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Kansas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in KansasBlack 0.9%, Hispanic 3.9%, Asian and other 1.6%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 45.4%, women 44.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 78,978 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 296,873 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson County | 70,682 | Rubio | 59.3% | Haley | 12.4% |
| Sedgwick County | 45,440 | Rubio | 37.1% | Trump Jr. | 24.0% |
| Shawnee County | 16,634 | Rubio | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.0% |
| Douglas County | 10,880 | Rubio | 60.8% | Haley | 14.4% |
| Wyandotte County | 8,612 | Rubio | 32.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| Leavenworth County | 8,150 | Rubio | 37.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| Butler County | 7,954 | Trump Jr. | 35.4% | Rubio | 25.8% |
| Reno County | 6,335 | Trump Jr. | 45.1% | Rubio | 18.1% |
| Saline County | 5,440 | Trump Jr. | 35.0% | Rubio | 26.2% |
| Riley County | 4,897 | Rubio | 52.6% | Haley | 11.3% |
| Miami County | 4,616 | Trump Jr. | 35.4% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Crawford County | 3,713 | Rubio | 31.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Harvey County | 3,603 | Trump Jr. | 31.1% | Rubio | 30.1% |
| McPherson County | 3,470 | Trump Jr. | 34.2% | Rubio | 26.7% |
| Pottawatomie County | 3,451 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Ellis County | 3,375 | Trump Jr. | 31.0% | Rubio | 28.9% |
| Cowley County | 3,268 | Trump Jr. | 43.4% | Rubio | 19.1% |
| Montgomery County | 3,144 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Franklin County | 3,115 | Trump Jr. | 42.4% | Rubio | 20.1% |
| Lyon County | 2,888 | Rubio | 31.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.5% |
| Barton County | 2,830 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Sumner County | 2,716 | Trump Jr. | 45.7% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Finney County | 2,602 | Trump Jr. | 44.1% | DeSantis | 19.1% |
| Dickinson County | 2,424 | Trump Jr. | 49.5% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Jefferson County | 2,410 | Trump Jr. | 41.5% | Rubio | 21.0% |
| Cherokee County | 2,262 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Ford County | 2,064 | Trump Jr. | 40.5% | Rubio | 20.9% |
| Osage County | 2,025 | Trump Jr. | 48.2% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Labette County | 1,882 | Trump Jr. | 48.5% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Geary County | 1,829 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | Rubio | 22.3% |
| Neosho County | 1,715 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Atchison County | 1,714 | Trump Jr. | 44.5% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Bourbon County | 1,711 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Nemaha County | 1,594 | Trump Jr. | 49.8% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Jackson County | 1,580 | Trump Jr. | 47.4% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Marion County | 1,501 | Trump Jr. | 43.0% | Rubio | 19.3% |
| Linn County | 1,409 | Trump Jr. | 53.8% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Allen County | 1,399 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Marshall County | 1,272 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Coffey County | 1,160 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Seward County | 1,131 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 18.2% |
| Cloud County | 1,092 | Trump Jr. | 54.2% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Clay County | 1,084 | Trump Jr. | 50.0% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Kingman County | 1,081 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Brown County | 1,057 | Trump Jr. | 53.0% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Rice County | 1,055 | Trump Jr. | 48.9% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Pratt County | 1,046 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Thomas County | 1,027 | Trump Jr. | 43.5% | Rubio | 18.3% |
| Anderson County | 1,023 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Wilson County | 994 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Doniphan County | 984 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Wabaunsee County | 984 | Trump Jr. | 46.3% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Russell County | 895 | Trump Jr. | 56.5% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Mitchell County | 891 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Ottawa County | 859 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Phillips County | 816 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Greenwood County | 790 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Washington County | 777 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Sherman County | 746 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Rooks County | 735 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Harper County | 711 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 16.8% |
| Morris County | 705 | Trump Jr. | 42.8% | Rubio | 19.4% |
| Ellsworth County | 703 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Republic County | 687 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Pawnee County | 675 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Grant County | 654 | Trump Jr. | 48.4% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Scott County | 650 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Gray County | 643 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Norton County | 638 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Barber County | 634 | Trump Jr. | 54.2% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Smith County | 575 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Stevens County | 575 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Stafford County | 538 | Trump Jr. | 50.2% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Osborne County | 508 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Meade County | 500 | Trump Jr. | 53.3% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Jewell County | 467 | Trump Jr. | 62.3% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Trego County | 467 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Rush County | 451 | Trump Jr. | 55.8% | DeSantis | 16.5% |
| Chautauqua County | 436 | Trump Jr. | 61.0% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Sheridan County | 427 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Lincoln County | 420 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Gove County | 418 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 16.1% |
| Ness County | 417 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Decatur County | 415 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Logan County | 413 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Rawlins County | 413 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Woodson County | 412 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Cheyenne County | 409 | Trump Jr. | 56.8% | DeSantis | 16.6% |
| Elk County | 385 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Kearny County | 381 | Trump Jr. | 57.2% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Chase County | 378 | Trump Jr. | 44.4% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Haskell County | 367 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Edwards County | 365 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Graham County | 352 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Morton County | 328 | Trump Jr. | 60.7% | DeSantis | 15.8% |
| Kiowa County | 318 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Clark County | 299 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Hodgeman County | 288 | Trump Jr. | 50.5% | DeSantis | 17.8% |
| Wichita County | 259 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Lane County | 256 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 17.2% |
| Comanche County | 250 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Hamilton County | 242 | Trump Jr. | 52.7% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Wallace County | 239 | Trump Jr. | 59.0% | DeSantis | 16.2% |
| Stanton County | 193 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Greeley County | 179 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | DeSantis | 18.4% |