2028 forecast · South Carolina · Republican primary
South Carolina Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 89% of runs
32.4%Vance's projected share
751,600Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 32.4% | 243,229 | 89% | 33.5% |
| Rubio | 13.7% | 103,044 | 7% | 13.9% |
| Trump Jr. | 10.8% | 81,136 | 3% | 10.6% |
| DeSantis | 6.4% | 48,291 | <1% | 6.2% |
| Haley | 5.5% | 41,507 | <1% | 5.5% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 3.7% | 27,818 | <1% | 3.6% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 3.7% | 27,601 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Cruz | 2.2% | 16,387 | <1% | 2.1% |
| Carlson | 2.0% | 14,979 | <1% | 1.9% |
| Rand Paul | 1.4% | 10,846 | <1% | 1.4% |
| MassieHYP | 1.4% | 10,250 | <1% | 1.3% |
| DonaldsHYP | 1.1% | 8,545 | <1% | 1.1% |
| GreeneHYP | 1.1% | 8,084 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 1.0% | 7,587 | <1% | 1.0% |
| KempHYP | 0.8% | 6,396 | <1% | 0.8% |
| BannonHYP | 0.5% | 4,058 | <1% | 0.5% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.5% | 3,954 | <1% | 0.5% |
| NoemHYP | 0.5% | 3,801 | <1% | 0.5% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.5% | 3,772 | <1% | 0.5% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.5% | 3,542 | <1% | 0.5% |
| CottonHYP | 0.5% | 3,446 | <1% | 0.4% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.4% | 3,236 | <1% | 0.4% |
| Youngkin | 0.3% | 2,433 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in South CarolinaBlack 5.2%, Hispanic 2.7%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 7.8%, 65 and up 37.3%, college graduates 42.5%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 740,881 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 751,600 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville County | 82,167 | Vance | 31.1% | Rubio | 20.3% |
| Horry County | 68,525 | Vance | 38.5% | Trump Jr. | 12.7% |
| Charleston County | 60,696 | Rubio | 29.2% | Vance | 21.0% |
| Spartanburg County | 49,075 | Vance | 36.4% | Trump Jr. | 13.7% |
| Lexington County | 47,698 | Vance | 36.0% | Rubio | 13.9% |
| York County | 45,840 | Vance | 32.0% | Rubio | 18.8% |
| Richland County | 40,055 | Rubio | 24.7% | Vance | 20.4% |
| Anderson County | 33,676 | Vance | 38.5% | Trump Jr. | 14.0% |
| Berkeley County | 32,912 | Vance | 34.5% | Rubio | 11.4% |
| Beaufort County | 31,633 | Vance | 29.3% | Rubio | 22.9% |
| Aiken County | 25,990 | Vance | 35.8% | Rubio | 11.6% |
| Dorchester County | 22,487 | Vance | 34.1% | Rubio | 13.4% |
| Pickens County | 21,583 | Vance | 38.4% | Trump Jr. | 13.0% |
| Lancaster County | 16,674 | Vance | 35.5% | Rubio | 13.5% |
| Florence County | 15,537 | Vance | 31.7% | Trump Jr. | 16.4% |
| Oconee County | 15,200 | Vance | 39.8% | Trump Jr. | 14.4% |
| Georgetown County | 10,960 | Vance | 36.6% | Trump Jr. | 11.9% |
| Sumter County | 10,566 | Vance | 30.3% | Trump Jr. | 15.0% |
| Kershaw County | 10,077 | Vance | 35.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.3% |
| Laurens County | 9,581 | Vance | 34.2% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Greenwood County | 9,074 | Vance | 34.6% | Trump Jr. | 16.6% |
| Cherokee County | 8,421 | Vance | 35.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Darlington County | 7,946 | Vance | 32.7% | Trump Jr. | 17.2% |
| Orangeburg County | 7,336 | Vance | 24.2% | Trump Jr. | 18.9% |
| Newberry County | 5,508 | Vance | 34.6% | Trump Jr. | 17.7% |
| Chesterfield County | 5,324 | Vance | 31.7% | Trump Jr. | 22.6% |
| Colleton County | 4,983 | Vance | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 20.3% |
| Jasper County | 4,875 | Vance | 31.9% | Trump Jr. | 15.0% |
| Chester County | 4,273 | Vance | 32.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Edgefield County | 4,082 | Vance | 33.5% | Trump Jr. | 17.9% |
| Clarendon County | 4,065 | Vance | 29.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Abbeville County | 3,759 | Vance | 34.1% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Union County | 3,658 | Vance | 32.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Saluda County | 2,918 | Vance | 33.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.1% |
| Dillon County | 2,897 | Vance | 27.2% | Trump Jr. | 23.6% |
| Marion County | 2,887 | Vance | 25.5% | Trump Jr. | 21.9% |
| Williamsburg County | 2,728 | Vance | 20.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.2% |
| Barnwell County | 2,515 | Vance | 28.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.8% |
| Fairfield County | 2,374 | Vance | 24.6% | Trump Jr. | 21.1% |
| Marlboro County | 2,246 | Trump Jr. | 25.8% | Vance | 23.5% |
| Calhoun County | 2,095 | Vance | 32.4% | Trump Jr. | 16.6% |
| Hampton County | 1,826 | Vance | 25.5% | Trump Jr. | 23.4% |
| McCormick County | 1,597 | Vance | 32.7% | Trump Jr. | 19.0% |
| Lee County | 1,586 | Trump Jr. | 23.8% | Vance | 20.8% |
| Bamberg County | 1,171 | Vance | 25.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Allendale County | 524 | Trump Jr. | 20.2% | Vance | 19.4% |
RubioFavorite, wins 56% of runs
20.6%Rubio's projected share
751,600Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 20.6% | 154,858 | 56% | 21.3% |
| Trump Jr. | 17.1% | 128,612 | 34% | 17.4% |
| DeSantis | 10.1% | 76,137 | 6% | 9.9% |
| Haley | 8.1% | 60,869 | 2% | 8.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.8% | 43,817 | 1% | 5.8% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 5.7% | 42,558 | 1% | 5.5% |
| Cruz | 3.5% | 26,152 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Carlson | 3.2% | 24,039 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Rand Paul | 2.3% | 17,096 | <1% | 2.2% |
| MassieHYP | 2.2% | 16,442 | <1% | 2.1% |
| DonaldsHYP | 1.8% | 13,368 | <1% | 1.7% |
| GreeneHYP | 1.7% | 12,957 | <1% | 1.6% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 1.6% | 12,166 | <1% | 1.6% |
| KempHYP | 1.3% | 9,913 | <1% | 1.3% |
| BannonHYP | 0.9% | 6,538 | <1% | 0.8% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.8% | 6,367 | <1% | 0.8% |
| NoemHYP | 0.8% | 6,120 | <1% | 0.8% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.8% | 6,054 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.8% | 5,653 | <1% | 0.7% |
| CottonHYP | 0.7% | 5,527 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.7% | 5,020 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Youngkin | 0.5% | 3,681 | <1% | 0.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in South CarolinaBlack 5.2%, Hispanic 2.7%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 7.8%, 65 and up 37.3%, college graduates 42.5%, women 45.1%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 740,881 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 751,600 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville County | 82,167 | Rubio | 30.5% | Haley | 12.2% |
| Horry County | 68,525 | Trump Jr. | 21.7% | Rubio | 16.5% |
| Charleston County | 60,696 | Rubio | 37.7% | Haley | 24.4% |
| Spartanburg County | 49,075 | Trump Jr. | 22.5% | Rubio | 14.9% |
| Lexington County | 47,698 | Rubio | 22.7% | Trump Jr. | 15.3% |
| York County | 45,840 | Rubio | 28.6% | Haley | 11.3% |
| Richland County | 40,055 | Rubio | 31.6% | Haley | 18.8% |
| Anderson County | 33,676 | Trump Jr. | 23.9% | Rubio | 14.2% |
| Berkeley County | 32,912 | Rubio | 18.2% | Trump Jr. | 17.8% |
| Beaufort County | 31,633 | Rubio | 33.4% | Haley | 15.4% |
| Aiken County | 25,990 | Rubio | 19.0% | Trump Jr. | 17.7% |
| Dorchester County | 22,487 | Rubio | 21.2% | Trump Jr. | 15.7% |
| Pickens County | 21,583 | Trump Jr. | 22.2% | Rubio | 15.4% |
| Lancaster County | 16,674 | Rubio | 21.9% | Trump Jr. | 15.6% |
| Florence County | 15,537 | Trump Jr. | 25.0% | DeSantis | 11.0% |
| Oconee County | 15,200 | Trump Jr. | 25.3% | Rubio | 13.0% |
| Georgetown County | 10,960 | Trump Jr. | 19.7% | Rubio | 15.6% |
| Sumter County | 10,566 | Trump Jr. | 22.3% | DeSantis | 11.1% |
| Kershaw County | 10,077 | Trump Jr. | 26.4% | DeSantis | 10.9% |
| Laurens County | 9,581 | Trump Jr. | 32.3% | DeSantis | 9.3% |
| Greenwood County | 9,074 | Trump Jr. | 26.4% | DeSantis | 11.1% |
| Cherokee County | 8,421 | Trump Jr. | 34.4% | DeSantis | 8.8% |
| Darlington County | 7,946 | Trump Jr. | 26.5% | DeSantis | 10.5% |
| Orangeburg County | 7,336 | Trump Jr. | 25.5% | Tim Scott | 12.8% |
| Newberry County | 5,508 | Trump Jr. | 28.2% | DeSantis | 10.8% |
| Chesterfield County | 5,324 | Trump Jr. | 34.3% | DeSantis | 8.6% |
| Colleton County | 4,983 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | DeSantis | 9.6% |
| Jasper County | 4,875 | Trump Jr. | 22.9% | DeSantis | 12.1% |
| Chester County | 4,273 | Trump Jr. | 32.0% | DeSantis | 8.9% |
| Edgefield County | 4,082 | Trump Jr. | 27.9% | DeSantis | 10.7% |
| Clarendon County | 4,065 | Trump Jr. | 31.4% | DeSantis | 9.3% |
| Abbeville County | 3,759 | Trump Jr. | 33.1% | DeSantis | 9.2% |
| Union County | 3,658 | Trump Jr. | 34.0% | DeSantis | 8.6% |
| Saluda County | 2,918 | Trump Jr. | 31.1% | DeSantis | 10.1% |
| Dillon County | 2,897 | Trump Jr. | 33.3% | DeSantis | 8.2% |
| Marion County | 2,887 | Trump Jr. | 30.2% | Tim Scott | 8.9% |
| Williamsburg County | 2,728 | Trump Jr. | 26.0% | Tim Scott | 13.7% |
| Barnwell County | 2,515 | Trump Jr. | 34.3% | DeSantis | 8.2% |
| Fairfield County | 2,374 | Trump Jr. | 28.6% | Tim Scott | 10.2% |
| Marlboro County | 2,246 | Trump Jr. | 34.4% | Carlson | 8.1% |
| Calhoun County | 2,095 | Trump Jr. | 25.4% | DeSantis | 11.3% |
| Hampton County | 1,826 | Trump Jr. | 32.1% | DeSantis | 8.2% |
| McCormick County | 1,597 | Trump Jr. | 29.2% | DeSantis | 10.7% |
| Lee County | 1,586 | Trump Jr. | 30.6% | Tim Scott | 10.1% |
| Bamberg County | 1,171 | Trump Jr. | 27.8% | Tim Scott | 11.0% |
| Allendale County | 524 | Trump Jr. | 25.6% | Tim Scott | 15.6% |