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2028 forecast · Pennsylvania · Republican primary

Pennsylvania Republican primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

VanceFavorite, wins 68% of runs
54.1%Vance's projected share
1,590,141Projected primary votes
4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Vance54.1%859,66068%38.0%
Rubio29.7%471,93024%18.3%
Trump Jr.6.3%99,4708%9.4%
DeSantis0.9%14,5201%5.4%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Pennsylvania votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
Vance

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Pennsylvania
America First46%
Suburban professional19%
Populist working class16%
Libertarian15%
Republican leaning independents2%

Black 2%, Hispanic 2.7%, Asian and other 1.7%, under 30 9%, 65 and up 33.2%, college graduates 43.2%, women 44.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 1,594,475 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,590,141 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Allegheny County148,762Vance47.4%Rubio37.4%
Montgomery County107,683Vance48.1%Rubio36.5%
Philadelphia County107,432Vance50.2%Rubio33.9%
Bucks County91,628Vance51.3%Rubio33.0%
Chester County71,372Vance47.0%Rubio37.8%
Lancaster County69,369Vance55.3%Rubio28.4%
Delaware County63,068Vance51.8%Rubio32.3%
York County61,734Vance57.3%Rubio26.0%
Westmoreland County54,012Vance56.7%Rubio26.8%
Berks County49,727Vance55.2%Rubio28.3%
Lehigh County42,054Vance52.5%Rubio31.4%
Northampton County40,211Vance53.5%Rubio30.3%
Luzerne County37,988Vance56.7%Rubio26.6%
Cumberland County34,637Vance53.4%Rubio30.6%
Butler County32,058Vance55.2%Rubio28.5%
Erie County30,877Vance54.5%Rubio29.2%
Dauphin County30,756Vance54.5%Rubio29.2%
Washington County30,620Vance56.2%Rubio27.3%
Lackawanna County26,140Vance53.8%Rubio30.1%
Beaver County22,993Vance57.0%Rubio26.4%
Franklin County22,801Vance59.2%Rubio23.8%
Schuylkill County19,815Vance60.3%Rubio22.5%
Lebanon County19,051Vance58.1%Rubio25.0%
Cambria County18,932Vance59.3%Rubio23.7%
Monroe County18,280Vance56.3%Rubio27.0%
Centre County18,196Vance50.0%Rubio34.4%
Blair County17,732Vance59.2%Rubio23.8%
Fayette County16,611Vance59.8%Rubio23.0%
Lycoming County15,959Vance59.8%Rubio23.1%
Adams County15,853Vance58.2%Rubio25.0%
Mercer County14,718Vance58.5%Rubio24.6%
Lawrence County12,122Vance59.6%Rubio23.3%
Somerset County12,027Vance61.4%Rubio21.1%
Northumberland County11,623Vance60.4%Rubio22.4%
Clearfield County11,577Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Crawford County11,430Vance60.2%Rubio22.6%
Indiana County11,170Vance59.2%Rubio23.8%
Armstrong County10,753Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Carbon County9,266Vance59.4%Rubio23.5%
Bedford County8,973Vance61.9%Rubio20.5%
Bradford County8,753Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Pike County8,618Vance58.3%Rubio24.9%
Columbia County8,355Vance57.7%Rubio25.6%
Wayne County7,713Vance60.0%Rubio22.8%
Perry County7,326Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Venango County7,260Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Jefferson County6,918Vance61.3%Rubio21.2%
Huntingdon County6,516Vance61.2%Rubio21.4%
Mifflin County6,476Vance61.5%Rubio21.0%
Tioga County6,205Vance60.8%Rubio22.0%
Susquehanna County6,190Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Clarion County5,652Vance60.5%Rubio22.2%
Snyder County5,580Vance60.5%Rubio22.3%
Warren County5,550Vance60.4%Rubio22.3%
McKean County5,476Vance60.6%Rubio22.1%
Union County5,135Vance58.3%Rubio24.8%
Clinton County4,956Vance60.0%Rubio22.8%
Elk County4,816Vance60.7%Rubio22.0%
Greene County4,729Vance60.4%Rubio22.4%
Wyoming County3,995Vance59.7%Rubio23.2%
Juniata County3,680Vance61.6%Rubio20.8%
Potter County2,777Vance61.7%Rubio20.8%
Fulton County2,663Vance61.9%Rubio20.5%
Montour County2,448Vance55.1%Rubio28.7%
Sullivan County1,043Vance60.8%Rubio21.9%
Forest County678Vance61.6%Rubio20.7%
Cameron County623Vance61.9%Rubio20.5%