2028 forecast · North Dakota · Republican primary
North Dakota Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 79% of runs
44.7%Vance's projected share
36,977Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 44.7% | 16,514 | 79% | 41.0% |
| Trump Jr. | 22.4% | 8,294 | 20% | 15.6% |
| Rubio | 14.2% | 5,249 | 1% | 7.9% |
| DeSantis | 5.9% | 2,167 | <1% | 5.5% |
| Haley | 2.1% | 763 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.6% | 584 | <1% | 3.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North DakotaBlack 0.5%, Hispanic 3.4%, Asian and other 2.7%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 32.5%, college graduates 35.4%, women 45.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, has no vote count. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 36,977 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cass County | 8,167 | Vance | 41.8% | Rubio | 25.1% |
| Burleigh County | 5,359 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 17.9% |
| Ward County | 2,952 | Vance | 45.3% | Trump Jr. | 26.2% |
| Grand Forks County | 2,910 | Vance | 44.2% | Rubio | 19.6% |
| Morton County | 1,827 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.6% |
| Stark County | 1,739 | Vance | 45.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.0% |
| Williams County | 1,736 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Stutsman County | 1,049 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Richland County | 831 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| McKenzie County | 624 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 36.7% |
| McLean County | 592 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Barnes County | 535 | Vance | 47.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.0% |
| Mercer County | 532 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Ramsey County | 517 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Walsh County | 474 | Vance | 44.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.8% |
| Traill County | 406 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 20.5% |
| Bottineau County | 374 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 25.5% |
| Mountrail County | 374 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 35.5% |
| Pembina County | 334 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 28.1% |
| McHenry County | 314 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Dickey County | 266 | Vance | 47.2% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Ransom County | 258 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 23.1% |
| Wells County | 256 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Dunn County | 254 | Vance | 44.4% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Emmons County | 237 | Vance | 45.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.4% |
| LaMoure County | 234 | Vance | 47.4% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Rolette County | 216 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 39.1% |
| Pierce County | 212 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Cavalier County | 211 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 27.4% |
| Sargent County | 200 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Bowman County | 195 | Vance | 46.1% | Trump Jr. | 29.6% |
| Foster County | 190 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Nelson County | 175 | Vance | 46.9% | Trump Jr. | 20.9% |
| Kidder County | 162 | Vance | 46.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| McIntosh County | 160 | Vance | 45.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Grant County | 152 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Hettinger County | 151 | Vance | 46.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Benson County | 150 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.7% |
| Renville County | 142 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Griggs County | 140 | Vance | 47.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Adams County | 135 | Vance | 46.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.2% |
| Divide County | 132 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.7% |
| Oliver County | 130 | Vance | 46.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Eddy County | 127 | Vance | 46.7% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Logan County | 127 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Burke County | 124 | Vance | 43.9% | Trump Jr. | 33.7% |
| Golden Valley County | 119 | Vance | 45.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Towner County | 115 | Vance | 45.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.1% |
| Steele County | 99 | Vance | 46.5% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| Sheridan County | 91 | Vance | 45.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Billings County | 76 | Vance | 47.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Slope County | 48 | Vance | 46.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Sioux County | 47 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Vance | 39.0% |
Trump Jr.Favorite, wins 90% of runs
41.6%Trump Jr.'s projected share
36,977Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr. | 41.6% | 15,395 | 90% | 28.2% |
| Rubio | 20.7% | 7,645 | 5% | 14.7% |
| DeSantis | 14.9% | 5,509 | 4% | 10.1% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.1% | 2,240 | <1% | 6.7% |
| Haley | 5.4% | 1,986 | <1% | 1.6% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 318 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Cruz | 0.6% | 208 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Carlson | 0.5% | 168 | 1% | 5.0% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 126 | <1% | 2.7% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North DakotaBlack 0.5%, Hispanic 3.4%, Asian and other 2.7%, under 30 9.1%, 65 and up 32.5%, college graduates 35.4%, women 45.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, has no vote count. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 36,977 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cass County | 8,167 | Rubio | 36.3% | Trump Jr. | 22.7% |
| Burleigh County | 5,359 | Trump Jr. | 34.1% | Rubio | 25.7% |
| Ward County | 2,952 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 16.0% |
| Grand Forks County | 2,910 | Trump Jr. | 30.3% | Rubio | 29.1% |
| Morton County | 1,827 | Trump Jr. | 50.5% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Stark County | 1,739 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Williams County | 1,736 | Trump Jr. | 59.2% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Stutsman County | 1,049 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Richland County | 831 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | Rubio | 15.8% |
| McKenzie County | 624 | Trump Jr. | 63.5% | DeSantis | 13.6% |
| McLean County | 592 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Barnes County | 535 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Mercer County | 532 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Ramsey County | 517 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Walsh County | 474 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Traill County | 406 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | Rubio | 21.5% |
| Bottineau County | 374 | Trump Jr. | 49.9% | DeSantis | 15.4% |
| Mountrail County | 374 | Trump Jr. | 62.0% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Pembina County | 334 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| McHenry County | 314 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Dickey County | 266 | Trump Jr. | 49.2% | DeSantis | 15.3% |
| Ransom County | 258 | Trump Jr. | 44.8% | Rubio | 17.8% |
| Wells County | 256 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Dunn County | 254 | Trump Jr. | 60.5% | DeSantis | 14.2% |
| Emmons County | 237 | Trump Jr. | 60.4% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| LaMoure County | 234 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Rolette County | 216 | Trump Jr. | 65.9% | DeSantis | 13.1% |
| Pierce County | 212 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 15.2% |
| Cavalier County | 211 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Sargent County | 200 | Trump Jr. | 51.3% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Bowman County | 195 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Foster County | 190 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Nelson County | 175 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | Rubio | 20.9% |
| Kidder County | 162 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| McIntosh County | 160 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 14.1% |
| Grant County | 152 | Trump Jr. | 58.7% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Hettinger County | 151 | Trump Jr. | 58.8% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Benson County | 150 | Trump Jr. | 63.1% | DeSantis | 13.8% |
| Renville County | 142 | Trump Jr. | 58.3% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Griggs County | 140 | Trump Jr. | 49.2% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Adams County | 135 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Divide County | 132 | Trump Jr. | 51.4% | DeSantis | 15.1% |
| Oliver County | 130 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 14.4% |
| Eddy County | 127 | Trump Jr. | 45.7% | Rubio | 16.7% |
| Logan County | 127 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 14.5% |
| Burke County | 124 | Trump Jr. | 61.3% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Golden Valley County | 119 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 14.0% |
| Towner County | 115 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 14.9% |
| Steele County | 99 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Sheridan County | 91 | Trump Jr. | 59.9% | DeSantis | 13.5% |
| Billings County | 76 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Slope County | 48 | Trump Jr. | 58.6% | DeSantis | 14.6% |
| Sioux County | 47 | Trump Jr. | 66.5% | DeSantis | 13.0% |