2028 forecast · New Hampshire · Republican primary
New Hampshire Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 31.4% | 83,845 | 57% | 32.1% |
| Rubio | 28.2% | 75,268 | 42% | 29.0% |
| Haley | 6.1% | 16,187 | <1% | 5.9% |
| DeSantis | 5.2% | 13,982 | <1% | 4.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 4.5% | 11,941 | <1% | 4.3% |
| Trump Jr. | 4.2% | 11,294 | <1% | 4.0% |
| Rand Paul | 2.5% | 6,770 | <1% | 2.4% |
| MassieHYP | 1.3% | 3,574 | <1% | 1.3% |
| KempHYP | 1.2% | 3,272 | <1% | 1.2% |
| Cruz | 0.8% | 2,259 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.8% | 2,050 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BurgumHYP | 0.7% | 1,932 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Youngkin | 0.7% | 1,782 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Carlson | 0.6% | 1,580 | <1% | 0.6% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 0.6% | 1,496 | <1% | 0.5% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.3% | 896 | <1% | 0.3% |
| CottonHYP | 0.3% | 903 | <1% | 0.3% |
| DonaldsHYP | 0.3% | 854 | <1% | 0.3% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.3% | 831 | <1% | 0.3% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.3% | 798 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Hampshire votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in New HampshireBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 1.4%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 48.3%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 285,916 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 267,163 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County | 75,399 | Rubio | 30.4% | Vance | 29.7% |
| Rockingham County | 67,435 | Rubio | 31.5% | Vance | 29.1% |
| Merrimack County | 29,844 | Vance | 33.4% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Strafford County | 24,002 | Rubio | 30.8% | Vance | 28.5% |
| Grafton County | 17,133 | Rubio | 32.5% | Vance | 27.8% |
| Cheshire County | 14,323 | Vance | 34.5% | Rubio | 24.7% |
| Belknap County | 13,830 | Vance | 39.6% | Rubio | 17.3% |
| Carroll County | 11,267 | Vance | 37.6% | Rubio | 21.7% |
| Sullivan County | 8,171 | Vance | 39.3% | Rubio | 18.2% |
| Coos County | 5,759 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 13.0% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 42.1% | 112,409 | 98% | 44.3% |
| Haley | 9.2% | 24,602 | 1% | 8.9% |
| DeSantis | 8.2% | 21,787 | 1% | 7.7% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 6.9% | 18,476 | <1% | 6.7% |
| Trump Jr. | 6.7% | 17,971 | <1% | 6.5% |
| Rand Paul | 3.9% | 10,464 | <1% | 3.7% |
| MassieHYP | 2.1% | 5,594 | <1% | 2.0% |
| KempHYP | 1.9% | 5,071 | <1% | 1.8% |
| Cruz | 1.3% | 3,577 | <1% | 1.3% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 1.2% | 3,193 | <1% | 1.1% |
| BurgumHYP | 1.1% | 2,986 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Youngkin | 1.0% | 2,740 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Carlson | 0.9% | 2,540 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | 0.9% | 2,367 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Ramaswamy | 0.5% | 1,405 | <1% | 0.5% |
| CottonHYP | 0.5% | 1,426 | <1% | 0.5% |
| DonaldsHYP | 0.5% | 1,353 | <1% | 0.5% |
| StefanikHYP | 0.5% | 1,315 | <1% | 0.5% |
| HawleyHYP | 0.5% | 1,266 | <1% | 0.5% |
| NoemHYP | 0.5% | 1,231 | <1% | 0.4% |
| GreeneHYP | 0.3% | 876 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Hampshire votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in New HampshireBlack 0.2%, Hispanic 1.4%, Asian and other 1.4%, under 30 9.4%, 65 and up 31.7%, college graduates 48.3%, women 44.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 285,916 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 267,163 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County | 75,399 | Rubio | 44.5% | Haley | 9.8% |
| Rockingham County | 67,435 | Rubio | 45.7% | Haley | 11.0% |
| Merrimack County | 29,844 | Rubio | 40.2% | DeSantis | 8.7% |
| Strafford County | 24,002 | Rubio | 44.3% | Haley | 10.5% |
| Grafton County | 17,133 | Rubio | 46.2% | Haley | 11.9% |
| Cheshire County | 14,323 | Rubio | 39.1% | DeSantis | 8.8% |
| Belknap County | 13,830 | Rubio | 30.1% | Trump Jr. | 13.7% |
| Carroll County | 11,267 | Rubio | 36.3% | DeSantis | 10.3% |
| Sullivan County | 8,171 | Rubio | 31.6% | Trump Jr. | 13.3% |
| Coos County | 5,759 | Trump Jr. | 23.9% | Rubio | 17.9% |