2028 forecast · Texas · Republican primary
Texas Republican primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
VanceFavorite, wins 51% of runs
31.7%Vance's projected share
3,052,979Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance | 31.7% | 967,760 | 51% | 25.5% |
| Rubio | 27.6% | 843,930 | 33% | 20.8% |
| Trump Jr. | 18.5% | 564,576 | 12% | 9.0% |
| DeSantis | 8.1% | 246,569 | 4% | 7.8% |
| Haley | 3.1% | 94,773 | <1% | 2.2% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 1.7% | 51,878 | <1% | 3.6% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Texas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareVanceTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in TexasBlack 2.9%, Hispanic 21.1%, Asian and other 3.3%, under 30 9.8%, 65 and up 30.1%, college graduates 44.2%, women 45.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,836,488 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 3,052,979 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris County | 362,860 | Rubio | 35.5% | Vance | 27.3% |
| Tarrant County | 206,159 | Rubio | 34.1% | Vance | 31.0% |
| Bexar County | 190,001 | Rubio | 43.7% | Vance | 22.3% |
| Dallas County | 184,955 | Rubio | 40.6% | Vance | 25.2% |
| Travis County | 137,495 | Rubio | 62.8% | Vance | 11.8% |
| Collin County | 132,647 | Rubio | 34.5% | Vance | 32.0% |
| Denton County | 119,019 | Rubio | 33.6% | Vance | 32.3% |
| Montgomery County | 95,426 | Vance | 38.6% | Rubio | 21.4% |
| Williamson County | 80,362 | Rubio | 38.3% | Vance | 29.6% |
| Fort Bend County | 79,609 | Vance | 32.5% | Rubio | 26.2% |
| El Paso County | 63,532 | Rubio | 43.6% | Vance | 18.2% |
| Hidalgo County | 61,492 | Trump Jr. | 26.5% | Rubio | 25.4% |
| Galveston County | 44,480 | Vance | 37.8% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Brazoria County | 42,200 | Vance | 36.4% | Trump Jr. | 21.6% |
| Lubbock County | 37,503 | Vance | 36.9% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Nueces County | 33,817 | Vance | 30.8% | Rubio | 23.6% |
| Cameron County | 33,281 | Rubio | 25.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.6% |
| Hays County | 33,264 | Rubio | 44.4% | Vance | 24.9% |
| Comal County | 32,950 | Vance | 38.3% | Rubio | 21.6% |
| Bell County | 32,723 | Vance | 37.6% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Parker County | 31,254 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 22.2% |
| Smith County | 30,225 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 24.4% |
| Ellis County | 28,015 | Vance | 38.8% | Trump Jr. | 23.3% |
| McLennan County | 27,872 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Johnson County | 25,617 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 23.9% |
| Brazos County | 25,158 | Vance | 33.3% | Rubio | 29.2% |
| Guadalupe County | 24,625 | Vance | 35.8% | Rubio | 21.1% |
| Randall County | 22,181 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 22.0% |
| Grayson County | 20,853 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.9% |
| Jefferson County | 19,737 | Vance | 37.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Midland County | 19,693 | Vance | 37.4% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Webb County | 18,886 | Rubio | 26.7% | Trump Jr. | 26.4% |
| Kaufman County | 18,854 | Vance | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 23.0% |
| Rockwall County | 18,833 | Vance | 37.5% | Rubio | 25.2% |
| Taylor County | 17,024 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 22.9% |
| Hunt County | 14,812 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 26.0% |
| Tom Green County | 14,364 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.7% |
| Ector County | 14,104 | Vance | 34.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Wise County | 13,377 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Gregg County | 13,248 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 26.8% |
| Wichita County | 13,221 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 23.7% |
| Henderson County | 12,658 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Hood County | 12,432 | Vance | 44.5% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Orange County | 11,999 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Bastrop County | 11,167 | Vance | 37.0% | Trump Jr. | 21.5% |
| Victoria County | 10,870 | Vance | 36.9% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Angelina County | 10,484 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Bowie County | 10,404 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.3% |
| Liberty County | 10,208 | Vance | 37.6% | Trump Jr. | 35.5% |
| Van Zandt County | 9,839 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Kendall County | 9,818 | Vance | 39.2% | Rubio | 21.4% |
| Hardin County | 9,780 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.3% |
| Potter County | 9,595 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Burnet County | 9,174 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.3% |
| Wilson County | 9,097 | Vance | 38.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Kerr County | 9,074 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 25.1% |
| Harrison County | 8,843 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Chambers County | 8,280 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Wood County | 8,275 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| San Patricio County | 7,931 | Vance | 35.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.7% |
| Medina County | 7,820 | Vance | 35.5% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Polk County | 7,809 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Waller County | 7,302 | Vance | 36.5% | Trump Jr. | 25.4% |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,224 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 24.8% |
| Walker County | 7,031 | Vance | 40.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.9% |
| Cooke County | 6,976 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Coryell County | 6,758 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Upshur County | 6,725 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Rusk County | 6,723 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.0% |
| Lamar County | 6,672 | Vance | 42.6% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Cherokee County | 6,504 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Erath County | 6,279 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 24.5% |
| Navarro County | 6,081 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Atascosa County | 6,047 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Vance | 32.9% |
| Brown County | 5,938 | Vance | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Anderson County | 5,921 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Hill County | 5,571 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Hopkins County | 5,569 | Vance | 42.3% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Washington County | 5,538 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.1% |
| Gillespie County | 5,533 | Vance | 43.2% | Trump Jr. | 22.8% |
| Fannin County | 5,479 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Wharton County | 5,109 | Vance | 37.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Starr County | 5,086 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | Vance | 23.4% |
| Jasper County | 5,077 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Austin County | 5,072 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 29.0% |
| Maverick County | 4,874 | Trump Jr. | 36.0% | Vance | 24.0% |
| Bandera County | 4,583 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Palo Pinto County | 4,548 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Val Verde County | 4,520 | Trump Jr. | 30.5% | Vance | 27.5% |
| Llano County | 4,490 | Vance | 44.7% | Trump Jr. | 25.2% |
| Cass County | 4,482 | Vance | 41.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Grimes County | 4,449 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Fayette County | 4,388 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 27.6% |
| Caldwell County | 4,382 | Vance | 34.5% | Trump Jr. | 24.6% |
| Aransas County | 4,257 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 24.2% |
| San Jacinto County | 4,218 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.9% |
| Matagorda County | 4,118 | Vance | 37.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Montague County | 3,996 | Vance | 42.4% | Trump Jr. | 32.3% |
| Jim Wells County | 3,914 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Vance | 28.2% |
| Lampasas County | 3,699 | Vance | 42.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.6% |
| Panola County | 3,686 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Lavaca County | 3,684 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Milam County | 3,542 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.8% |
| Howard County | 3,275 | Vance | 37.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Bosque County | 3,273 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Titus County | 3,246 | Vance | 37.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.1% |
| Tyler County | 3,191 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.5% |
| Shelby County | 3,161 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Hale County | 3,156 | Vance | 34.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Leon County | 3,153 | Vance | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Colorado County | 3,151 | Vance | 39.4% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Uvalde County | 3,064 | Trump Jr. | 31.8% | Vance | 30.9% |
| Burleson County | 3,017 | Vance | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.4% |
| Eastland County | 2,994 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Young County | 2,981 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Hutchinson County | 2,945 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.0% |
| Freestone County | 2,881 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 35.2% |
| Hockley County | 2,811 | Vance | 36.8% | Trump Jr. | 32.7% |
| Kleberg County | 2,800 | Vance | 28.9% | Trump Jr. | 26.7% |
| Blanco County | 2,793 | Vance | 42.7% | Trump Jr. | 22.1% |
| Limestone County | 2,747 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Houston County | 2,729 | Vance | 38.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.9% |
| Lee County | 2,726 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 30.3% |
| Gray County | 2,697 | Vance | 39.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.3% |
| Bee County | 2,660 | Trump Jr. | 34.2% | Vance | 33.2% |
| DeWitt County | 2,638 | Vance | 38.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Calhoun County | 2,535 | Vance | 37.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.8% |
| Gonzales County | 2,510 | Trump Jr. | 36.3% | Vance | 35.5% |
| Callahan County | 2,495 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 30.1% |
| Trinity County | 2,430 | Vance | 41.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.7% |
| Robertson County | 2,422 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Gaines County | 2,418 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | Vance | 37.1% |
| Comanche County | 2,346 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Jones County | 2,335 | Vance | 37.8% | Trump Jr. | 36.7% |
| Rains County | 2,268 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Andrews County | 2,250 | Vance | 35.5% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Jackson County | 2,183 | Vance | 38.4% | Trump Jr. | 35.0% |
| Clay County | 2,139 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Scurry County | 2,045 | Vance | 36.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.9% |
| Sabine County | 1,939 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 36.2% |
| Moore County | 1,879 | Trump Jr. | 38.1% | Vance | 33.7% |
| Somervell County | 1,871 | Vance | 43.0% | Trump Jr. | 27.3% |
| Archer County | 1,854 | Vance | 43.4% | Trump Jr. | 29.7% |
| Newton County | 1,813 | Vance | 38.6% | Trump Jr. | 38.6% |
| Franklin County | 1,803 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.8% |
| Red River County | 1,799 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 34.3% |
| Falls County | 1,779 | Vance | 39.2% | Trump Jr. | 31.7% |
| Live Oak County | 1,764 | Trump Jr. | 36.6% | Vance | 36.3% |
| Madison County | 1,704 | Vance | 38.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Nolan County | 1,694 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Karnes County | 1,626 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | Vance | 34.5% |
| Camp County | 1,580 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Hamilton County | 1,563 | Vance | 43.8% | Trump Jr. | 27.9% |
| Morris County | 1,558 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Zapata County | 1,539 | Trump Jr. | 35.7% | Vance | 24.6% |
| Jack County | 1,535 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.8% |
| Willacy County | 1,532 | Trump Jr. | 31.9% | Vance | 25.8% |
| Coleman County | 1,486 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Deaf Smith County | 1,479 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Vance | 31.5% |
| Runnels County | 1,472 | Vance | 39.3% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Lamb County | 1,467 | Trump Jr. | 35.3% | Vance | 35.1% |
| Wilbarger County | 1,445 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Frio County | 1,431 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Vance | 28.0% |
| Marion County | 1,384 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Pecos County | 1,369 | Trump Jr. | 36.8% | Vance | 30.9% |
| Stephens County | 1,350 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 34.4% |
| Ward County | 1,327 | Trump Jr. | 37.6% | Vance | 33.9% |
| Goliad County | 1,318 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 31.5% |
| Brewster County | 1,269 | Vance | 31.9% | Rubio | 31.8% |
| McCulloch County | 1,265 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Duval County | 1,254 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | Vance | 27.3% |
| Terry County | 1,194 | Trump Jr. | 38.5% | Vance | 34.3% |
| Dawson County | 1,169 | Trump Jr. | 36.8% | Vance | 34.4% |
| Ochiltree County | 1,169 | Vance | 36.5% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Carson County | 1,151 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Reeves County | 1,131 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | Vance | 27.0% |
| San Augustine County | 1,118 | Vance | 40.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Mills County | 993 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| San Saba County | 985 | Vance | 40.7% | Trump Jr. | 31.4% |
| Parmer County | 934 | Trump Jr. | 35.2% | Vance | 34.6% |
| Refugio County | 931 | Trump Jr. | 35.0% | Vance | 34.8% |
| Lynn County | 926 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 28.4% |
| Yoakum County | 903 | Vance | 34.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.5% |
| Dimmit County | 894 | Trump Jr. | 34.7% | Vance | 25.9% |
| Zavala County | 893 | Trump Jr. | 32.6% | Vance | 23.4% |
| Delta County | 880 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Kimble County | 869 | Vance | 41.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.6% |
| Mason County | 865 | Vance | 43.1% | Trump Jr. | 23.5% |
| Mitchell County | 858 | Trump Jr. | 37.4% | Vance | 36.9% |
| Wheeler County | 850 | Vance | 40.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Hansford County | 789 | Vance | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 28.5% |
| Childress County | 784 | Trump Jr. | 37.8% | Vance | 37.1% |
| Haskell County | 782 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 29.9% |
| Martin County | 781 | Vance | 36.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Swisher County | 757 | Vance | 36.2% | Trump Jr. | 35.8% |
| Floyd County | 741 | Trump Jr. | 36.2% | Vance | 34.8% |
| Hartley County | 732 | Vance | 39.5% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Winkler County | 706 | Trump Jr. | 38.5% | Vance | 33.6% |
| Castro County | 696 | Vance | 34.4% | Trump Jr. | 34.1% |
| Real County | 668 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 32.6% |
| Coke County | 666 | Vance | 41.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| La Salle County | 655 | Trump Jr. | 36.5% | Vance | 29.5% |
| Shackelford County | 641 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 25.9% |
| Brooks County | 623 | Trump Jr. | 30.6% | Vance | 24.3% |
| Fisher County | 612 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.3% |
| Crosby County | 610 | Vance | 35.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.6% |
| Donley County | 598 | Vance | 41.1% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Bailey County | 596 | Vance | 34.6% | Trump Jr. | 34.5% |
| Baylor County | 593 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 31.6% |
| Hemphill County | 583 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 31.9% |
| Garza County | 548 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | Vance | 33.5% |
| Dallam County | 531 | Trump Jr. | 37.3% | Vance | 36.3% |
| Sutton County | 529 | Trump Jr. | 35.9% | Vance | 32.8% |
| Crane County | 527 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | Vance | 30.2% |
| Crockett County | 513 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | Vance | 31.2% |
| Upton County | 503 | Trump Jr. | 40.2% | Vance | 33.1% |
| Hardeman County | 490 | Vance | 39.7% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Presidio County | 484 | Rubio | 37.9% | Vance | 22.1% |
| Knox County | 475 | Vance | 38.8% | Trump Jr. | 35.4% |
| Kinney County | 473 | Trump Jr. | 36.6% | Vance | 34.3% |
| Lipscomb County | 463 | Vance | 39.4% | Trump Jr. | 33.5% |
| Concho County | 425 | Vance | 38.9% | Trump Jr. | 35.1% |
| Jim Hogg County | 425 | Trump Jr. | 28.7% | Vance | 23.6% |
| Collingsworth County | 424 | Vance | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.6% |
| Armstrong County | 409 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 30.7% |
| Hall County | 405 | Vance | 38.7% | Trump Jr. | 34.2% |
| Schleicher County | 394 | Vance | 35.2% | Trump Jr. | 34.7% |
| Edwards County | 371 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | Vance | 33.2% |
| Oldham County | 371 | Vance | 40.5% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Menard County | 363 | Vance | 41.3% | Trump Jr. | 30.4% |
| Reagan County | 352 | Trump Jr. | 39.0% | Vance | 31.1% |
| Dickens County | 350 | Vance | 39.6% | Trump Jr. | 33.4% |
| Hudspeth County | 349 | Trump Jr. | 37.6% | Vance | 30.2% |
| Sherman County | 344 | Vance | 40.9% | Trump Jr. | 29.3% |
| Jeff Davis County | 339 | Vance | 38.9% | Rubio | 20.4% |
| Throckmorton County | 326 | Vance | 42.9% | Trump Jr. | 32.8% |
| Irion County | 318 | Vance | 39.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.5% |
| Cochran County | 317 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | Vance | 32.7% |
| Briscoe County | 272 | Vance | 40.3% | Trump Jr. | 33.2% |
| Glasscock County | 258 | Vance | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 30.2% |
| Stonewall County | 248 | Vance | 42.2% | Trump Jr. | 33.0% |
| Sterling County | 240 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 31.2% |
| Motley County | 236 | Vance | 40.1% | Trump Jr. | 36.2% |
| Cottle County | 231 | Vance | 37.3% | Trump Jr. | 35.2% |
| Culberson County | 222 | Trump Jr. | 35.4% | Vance | 29.1% |
| Roberts County | 218 | Vance | 41.7% | Trump Jr. | 33.8% |
| McMullen County | 206 | Trump Jr. | 40.8% | Vance | 29.6% |
| Foard County | 180 | Vance | 42.8% | Trump Jr. | 31.1% |
| Kent County | 159 | Vance | 42.1% | Trump Jr. | 32.2% |
| Borden County | 148 | Vance | 44.8% | Trump Jr. | 26.5% |
| Terrell County | 135 | Vance | 36.9% | Trump Jr. | 30.9% |
| Kenedy County | 57 | Trump Jr. | 41.2% | Vance | 25.2% |
| King County | 50 | Vance | 42.5% | Trump Jr. | 32.0% |
| Loving County | 32 | Trump Jr. | 43.3% | Vance | 36.0% |
RubioFavorite, wins 53% of runs
31.9%Rubio's projected share
3,052,979Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubio | 31.9% | 973,147 | 53% | 27.7% |
| Trump Jr. | 27.5% | 838,330 | 33% | 13.1% |
| DeSantis | 17.3% | 528,972 | 11% | 10.9% |
| Haley | 6.3% | 192,366 | <1% | 2.9% |
| Kennedy Jr. | 5.2% | 159,534 | <1% | 5.1% |
| Cruz | 1.1% | 34,673 | 3% | 14.8% |
| Tim ScottHYP | 0.9% | 28,128 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Carlson | 0.3% | 10,445 | <1% | 2.4% |
| Rand Paul | 0.3% | 9,218 | <1% | 2.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Texas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 9%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareTrump Jr.Rubio
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in TexasBlack 2.9%, Hispanic 21.1%, Asian and other 3.3%, under 30 9.8%, 65 and up 30.1%, college graduates 44.2%, women 45.3%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Republican contest, in 2016, cast 2,836,488 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 3,052,979 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris County | 362,860 | Rubio | 40.6% | Trump Jr. | 18.4% |
| Tarrant County | 206,159 | Rubio | 41.2% | Trump Jr. | 17.7% |
| Bexar County | 190,001 | Rubio | 48.6% | DeSantis | 14.7% |
| Dallas County | 184,955 | Rubio | 45.9% | DeSantis | 14.8% |
| Travis County | 137,495 | Rubio | 61.8% | Haley | 17.7% |
| Collin County | 132,647 | Rubio | 42.3% | DeSantis | 15.5% |
| Denton County | 119,019 | Rubio | 41.5% | Trump Jr. | 16.5% |
| Montgomery County | 95,426 | Trump Jr. | 29.1% | Rubio | 27.9% |
| Williamson County | 80,362 | Rubio | 46.1% | DeSantis | 13.9% |
| Fort Bend County | 79,609 | Rubio | 30.8% | Trump Jr. | 24.3% |
| El Paso County | 63,532 | Rubio | 45.7% | Trump Jr. | 17.6% |
| Hidalgo County | 61,492 | Trump Jr. | 31.8% | Rubio | 25.3% |
| Galveston County | 44,480 | Trump Jr. | 29.2% | Rubio | 27.6% |
| Brazoria County | 42,200 | Trump Jr. | 32.9% | Rubio | 23.5% |
| Lubbock County | 37,503 | Trump Jr. | 30.1% | Rubio | 26.5% |
| Nueces County | 33,817 | Trump Jr. | 31.0% | Rubio | 26.8% |
| Cameron County | 33,281 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 26.0% |
| Hays County | 33,264 | Rubio | 50.8% | DeSantis | 12.0% |
| Comal County | 32,950 | Trump Jr. | 28.7% | Rubio | 28.0% |
| Bell County | 32,723 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | Rubio | 20.8% |
| Parker County | 31,254 | Trump Jr. | 39.0% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Smith County | 30,225 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | DeSantis | 20.3% |
| Ellis County | 28,015 | Trump Jr. | 37.1% | DeSantis | 20.5% |
| McLennan County | 27,872 | Trump Jr. | 33.4% | Rubio | 23.4% |
| Johnson County | 25,617 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Brazos County | 25,158 | Rubio | 35.1% | Trump Jr. | 20.8% |
| Guadalupe County | 24,625 | Trump Jr. | 31.2% | Rubio | 25.9% |
| Randall County | 22,181 | Trump Jr. | 37.2% | Rubio | 20.3% |
| Grayson County | 20,853 | Trump Jr. | 46.8% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Jefferson County | 19,737 | Trump Jr. | 43.7% | DeSantis | 21.0% |
| Midland County | 19,693 | Trump Jr. | 38.3% | DeSantis | 21.2% |
| Webb County | 18,886 | Trump Jr. | 30.9% | Rubio | 26.1% |
| Kaufman County | 18,854 | Trump Jr. | 36.6% | Rubio | 20.5% |
| Rockwall County | 18,833 | Rubio | 33.0% | Trump Jr. | 24.2% |
| Taylor County | 17,024 | Trump Jr. | 38.2% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Hunt County | 14,812 | Trump Jr. | 44.4% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Tom Green County | 14,364 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | DeSantis | 20.3% |
| Ector County | 14,104 | Trump Jr. | 46.7% | DeSantis | 20.9% |
| Wise County | 13,377 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Gregg County | 13,248 | Trump Jr. | 44.8% | DeSantis | 19.8% |
| Wichita County | 13,221 | Trump Jr. | 40.4% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Henderson County | 12,658 | Trump Jr. | 52.2% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Hood County | 12,432 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | DeSantis | 19.9% |
| Orange County | 11,999 | Trump Jr. | 51.7% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Bastrop County | 11,167 | Trump Jr. | 33.3% | Rubio | 24.1% |
| Victoria County | 10,870 | Trump Jr. | 42.8% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Angelina County | 10,484 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Bowie County | 10,404 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Liberty County | 10,208 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Van Zandt County | 9,839 | Trump Jr. | 54.7% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Kendall County | 9,818 | Rubio | 28.3% | Trump Jr. | 28.2% |
| Hardin County | 9,780 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Potter County | 9,595 | Trump Jr. | 45.7% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Burnet County | 9,174 | Trump Jr. | 43.7% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Wilson County | 9,097 | Trump Jr. | 44.3% | DeSantis | 20.8% |
| Kerr County | 9,074 | Trump Jr. | 42.7% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Harrison County | 8,843 | Trump Jr. | 50.0% | DeSantis | 19.5% |
| Chambers County | 8,280 | Trump Jr. | 50.1% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Wood County | 8,275 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| San Patricio County | 7,931 | Trump Jr. | 41.4% | DeSantis | 20.8% |
| Medina County | 7,820 | Trump Jr. | 43.3% | DeSantis | 21.5% |
| Polk County | 7,809 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 18.2% |
| Waller County | 7,302 | Trump Jr. | 38.6% | DeSantis | 20.8% |
| Nacogdoches County | 7,224 | Trump Jr. | 40.9% | DeSantis | 20.0% |
| Walker County | 7,031 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | DeSantis | 19.7% |
| Cooke County | 6,976 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Coryell County | 6,758 | Trump Jr. | 45.1% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Upshur County | 6,725 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Rusk County | 6,723 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Lamar County | 6,672 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Cherokee County | 6,504 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Erath County | 6,279 | Trump Jr. | 41.9% | DeSantis | 19.5% |
| Navarro County | 6,081 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Atascosa County | 6,047 | Trump Jr. | 46.9% | DeSantis | 21.5% |
| Brown County | 5,938 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Anderson County | 5,921 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Hill County | 5,571 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Hopkins County | 5,569 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Washington County | 5,538 | Trump Jr. | 45.9% | DeSantis | 20.6% |
| Gillespie County | 5,533 | Trump Jr. | 39.7% | DeSantis | 21.0% |
| Fannin County | 5,479 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 18.3% |
| Wharton County | 5,109 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Starr County | 5,086 | Trump Jr. | 42.6% | DeSantis | 25.2% |
| Jasper County | 5,077 | Trump Jr. | 58.4% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Austin County | 5,072 | Trump Jr. | 47.9% | DeSantis | 20.3% |
| Maverick County | 4,874 | Trump Jr. | 43.4% | DeSantis | 25.1% |
| Bandera County | 4,583 | Trump Jr. | 48.4% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Palo Pinto County | 4,548 | Trump Jr. | 53.7% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Val Verde County | 4,520 | Trump Jr. | 39.4% | DeSantis | 24.0% |
| Llano County | 4,490 | Trump Jr. | 45.4% | DeSantis | 20.3% |
| Cass County | 4,482 | Trump Jr. | 56.7% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Grimes County | 4,449 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Fayette County | 4,388 | Trump Jr. | 47.4% | DeSantis | 20.2% |
| Caldwell County | 4,382 | Trump Jr. | 36.4% | Rubio | 21.3% |
| Aransas County | 4,257 | Trump Jr. | 41.2% | DeSantis | 20.4% |
| San Jacinto County | 4,218 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 18.2% |
| Matagorda County | 4,118 | Trump Jr. | 48.9% | DeSantis | 20.9% |
| Montague County | 3,996 | Trump Jr. | 55.7% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Jim Wells County | 3,914 | Trump Jr. | 41.0% | DeSantis | 23.1% |
| Lampasas County | 3,699 | Trump Jr. | 48.7% | DeSantis | 19.5% |
| Panola County | 3,686 | Trump Jr. | 56.1% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Lavaca County | 3,684 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Milam County | 3,542 | Trump Jr. | 51.3% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Howard County | 3,275 | Trump Jr. | 52.7% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Bosque County | 3,273 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Titus County | 3,246 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Tyler County | 3,191 | Trump Jr. | 60.1% | DeSantis | 16.4% |
| Shelby County | 3,161 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 17.8% |
| Hale County | 3,156 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 20.6% |
| Leon County | 3,153 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Colorado County | 3,151 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 20.0% |
| Uvalde County | 3,064 | Trump Jr. | 43.7% | DeSantis | 22.4% |
| Burleson County | 3,017 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | DeSantis | 19.9% |
| Eastland County | 2,994 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Young County | 2,981 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Hutchinson County | 2,945 | Trump Jr. | 56.3% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Freestone County | 2,881 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 17.8% |
| Hockley County | 2,811 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 20.2% |
| Kleberg County | 2,800 | Trump Jr. | 35.6% | DeSantis | 22.2% |
| Blanco County | 2,793 | Trump Jr. | 38.3% | DeSantis | 20.4% |
| Limestone County | 2,747 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Houston County | 2,729 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Lee County | 2,726 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Gray County | 2,697 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Bee County | 2,660 | Trump Jr. | 49.1% | DeSantis | 20.9% |
| DeWitt County | 2,638 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 19.1% |
| Calhoun County | 2,535 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Gonzales County | 2,510 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Callahan County | 2,495 | Trump Jr. | 52.9% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Trinity County | 2,430 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Robertson County | 2,422 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 19.8% |
| Gaines County | 2,418 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| Comanche County | 2,346 | Trump Jr. | 53.5% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Jones County | 2,335 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Rains County | 2,268 | Trump Jr. | 54.8% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Andrews County | 2,250 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 20.0% |
| Jackson County | 2,183 | Trump Jr. | 55.6% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Clay County | 2,139 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Scurry County | 2,045 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Sabine County | 1,939 | Trump Jr. | 60.8% | DeSantis | 16.3% |
| Moore County | 1,879 | Trump Jr. | 55.3% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Somervell County | 1,871 | Trump Jr. | 47.5% | DeSantis | 19.7% |
| Archer County | 1,854 | Trump Jr. | 52.1% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Newton County | 1,813 | Trump Jr. | 62.1% | DeSantis | 15.6% |
| Franklin County | 1,803 | Trump Jr. | 49.2% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Red River County | 1,799 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Falls County | 1,779 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 19.9% |
| Live Oak County | 1,764 | Trump Jr. | 55.8% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Madison County | 1,704 | Trump Jr. | 55.1% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Nolan County | 1,694 | Trump Jr. | 53.0% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Karnes County | 1,626 | Trump Jr. | 53.4% | DeSantis | 20.0% |
| Camp County | 1,580 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 19.8% |
| Hamilton County | 1,563 | Trump Jr. | 49.3% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Morris County | 1,558 | Trump Jr. | 57.0% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Zapata County | 1,539 | Trump Jr. | 43.6% | DeSantis | 24.9% |
| Jack County | 1,535 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Willacy County | 1,532 | Trump Jr. | 40.1% | DeSantis | 23.8% |
| Coleman County | 1,486 | Trump Jr. | 57.8% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Deaf Smith County | 1,479 | Trump Jr. | 50.7% | DeSantis | 21.1% |
| Runnels County | 1,472 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Lamb County | 1,467 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 20.2% |
| Wilbarger County | 1,445 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Frio County | 1,431 | Trump Jr. | 47.2% | DeSantis | 22.8% |
| Marion County | 1,384 | Trump Jr. | 56.3% | DeSantis | 17.9% |
| Pecos County | 1,369 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 21.6% |
| Stephens County | 1,350 | Trump Jr. | 56.9% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Ward County | 1,327 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Goliad County | 1,318 | Trump Jr. | 50.4% | DeSantis | 19.9% |
| Brewster County | 1,269 | Rubio | 39.0% | Trump Jr. | 19.4% |
| McCulloch County | 1,265 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Duval County | 1,254 | Trump Jr. | 48.5% | DeSantis | 22.0% |
| Terry County | 1,194 | Trump Jr. | 56.6% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Dawson County | 1,169 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Ochiltree County | 1,169 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Carson County | 1,151 | Trump Jr. | 52.4% | DeSantis | 18.5% |
| Reeves County | 1,131 | Trump Jr. | 51.5% | DeSantis | 21.9% |
| San Augustine County | 1,118 | Trump Jr. | 57.9% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Mills County | 993 | Trump Jr. | 52.0% | DeSantis | 19.1% |
| San Saba County | 985 | Trump Jr. | 52.0% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Parmer County | 934 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Refugio County | 931 | Trump Jr. | 51.8% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Lynn County | 926 | Trump Jr. | 45.4% | DeSantis | 21.0% |
| Yoakum County | 903 | Trump Jr. | 50.8% | DeSantis | 20.8% |
| Dimmit County | 894 | Trump Jr. | 43.8% | DeSantis | 23.3% |
| Zavala County | 893 | Trump Jr. | 39.5% | DeSantis | 24.0% |
| Delta County | 880 | Trump Jr. | 58.1% | DeSantis | 16.9% |
| Kimble County | 869 | Trump Jr. | 51.9% | DeSantis | 19.7% |
| Mason County | 865 | Trump Jr. | 40.7% | DeSantis | 21.4% |
| Mitchell County | 858 | Trump Jr. | 58.0% | DeSantis | 17.5% |
| Wheeler County | 850 | Trump Jr. | 57.6% | DeSantis | 17.6% |
| Hansford County | 789 | Trump Jr. | 45.5% | DeSantis | 21.5% |
| Childress County | 784 | Trump Jr. | 58.9% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Haskell County | 782 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Martin County | 781 | Trump Jr. | 50.5% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Swisher County | 757 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 19.2% |
| Floyd County | 741 | Trump Jr. | 53.6% | DeSantis | 20.0% |
| Hartley County | 732 | Trump Jr. | 54.2% | DeSantis | 19.3% |
| Winkler County | 706 | Trump Jr. | 56.0% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Castro County | 696 | Trump Jr. | 49.9% | DeSantis | 21.3% |
| Real County | 668 | Trump Jr. | 55.3% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Coke County | 666 | Trump Jr. | 54.4% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| La Salle County | 655 | Trump Jr. | 49.0% | DeSantis | 21.8% |
| Shackelford County | 641 | Trump Jr. | 46.6% | DeSantis | 19.9% |
| Brooks County | 623 | Trump Jr. | 37.5% | DeSantis | 24.5% |
| Fisher County | 612 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 18.6% |
| Crosby County | 610 | Trump Jr. | 50.5% | DeSantis | 20.4% |
| Donley County | 598 | Trump Jr. | 58.5% | DeSantis | 16.7% |
| Bailey County | 596 | Trump Jr. | 50.6% | DeSantis | 20.9% |
| Baylor County | 593 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 18.5% |
| Hemphill County | 583 | Trump Jr. | 52.5% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Garza County | 548 | Trump Jr. | 57.3% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Dallam County | 531 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 18.1% |
| Sutton County | 529 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 21.4% |
| Crane County | 527 | Trump Jr. | 55.9% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Crockett County | 513 | Trump Jr. | 52.0% | DeSantis | 21.0% |
| Upton County | 503 | Trump Jr. | 58.2% | DeSantis | 18.4% |
| Hardeman County | 490 | Trump Jr. | 57.4% | DeSantis | 17.7% |
| Presidio County | 484 | Rubio | 41.0% | Trump Jr. | 20.4% |
| Knox County | 475 | Trump Jr. | 56.8% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Kinney County | 473 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 19.5% |
| Lipscomb County | 463 | Trump Jr. | 54.1% | DeSantis | 19.1% |
| Concho County | 425 | Trump Jr. | 56.5% | DeSantis | 18.0% |
| Jim Hogg County | 425 | Trump Jr. | 35.1% | DeSantis | 22.8% |
| Collingsworth County | 424 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Armstrong County | 409 | Trump Jr. | 53.1% | DeSantis | 18.7% |
| Hall County | 405 | Trump Jr. | 54.5% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Schleicher County | 394 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Edwards County | 371 | Trump Jr. | 51.0% | DeSantis | 20.7% |
| Oldham County | 371 | Trump Jr. | 51.6% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Menard County | 363 | Trump Jr. | 50.9% | DeSantis | 20.1% |
| Reagan County | 352 | Trump Jr. | 53.9% | DeSantis | 20.5% |
| Dickens County | 350 | Trump Jr. | 54.3% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Hudspeth County | 349 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 20.8% |
| Sherman County | 344 | Trump Jr. | 48.5% | DeSantis | 20.2% |
| Jeff Davis County | 339 | Trump Jr. | 30.9% | Rubio | 27.0% |
| Throckmorton County | 326 | Trump Jr. | 57.1% | DeSantis | 17.4% |
| Irion County | 318 | Trump Jr. | 49.7% | DeSantis | 20.2% |
| Cochran County | 317 | Trump Jr. | 56.4% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Briscoe County | 272 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 18.9% |
| Glasscock County | 258 | Trump Jr. | 50.3% | DeSantis | 19.7% |
| Stonewall County | 248 | Trump Jr. | 56.8% | DeSantis | 17.3% |
| Sterling County | 240 | Trump Jr. | 51.1% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Motley County | 236 | Trump Jr. | 59.6% | DeSantis | 17.0% |
| Cottle County | 231 | Trump Jr. | 54.6% | DeSantis | 19.4% |
| Culberson County | 222 | Trump Jr. | 47.0% | DeSantis | 23.3% |
| Roberts County | 218 | Trump Jr. | 57.5% | DeSantis | 17.1% |
| McMullen County | 206 | Trump Jr. | 54.9% | DeSantis | 20.6% |
| Foard County | 180 | Trump Jr. | 54.0% | DeSantis | 18.2% |
| Kent County | 159 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 18.8% |
| Borden County | 148 | Trump Jr. | 47.7% | DeSantis | 19.6% |
| Terrell County | 135 | Trump Jr. | 47.1% | DeSantis | 22.7% |
| Kenedy County | 57 | Trump Jr. | 50.7% | DeSantis | 24.1% |
| King County | 50 | Trump Jr. | 55.0% | DeSantis | 19.0% |
| Loving County | 32 | Trump Jr. | 66.9% | DeSantis | 13.8% |