2028 forecast · Wisconsin · Democratic primary

Wisconsin Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 59% of runs

56.2%Harris's projected share

989,999Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	56.2%	556,360	59%	8.6%
Buttigieg	10.8%	106,909	15%	13.9%
Newsom	10.5%	103,936	13%	9.0%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.8%	56,964	7%	12.9%
Ossoff	5.1%	50,640	6%	7.7%
Kelly	0.4%	4,305	<1%	5.9%
Shapiro	0.2%	1,982	<1%	5.4%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Wisconsin votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Wisconsin

Progressive38%

Working class and union17%

Institutional16%

Democratic leaning independents13%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 9.7%, Hispanic 4.1%, Asian and other 2.9%, under 30 13.2%, 65 and up 30.4%, college graduates 42.9%, women 54.5%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 925,065 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 989,999 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Milwaukee County	185,671	Harris	59.0%	Newsom	10.0%
Dane County	121,663	Harris	54.6%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Waukesha County	73,273	Harris	54.9%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Brown County	41,432	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Racine County	33,060	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Outagamie County	30,202	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Kenosha County	26,717	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Winnebago County	26,381	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Rock County	26,097	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Washington County	21,662	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
La Crosse County	20,715	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Marathon County	19,967	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Eau Claire County	18,001	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Sheboygan County	17,776	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Ozaukee County	17,477	Harris	54.8%	Buttigieg	11.7%
St. Croix County	15,699	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Walworth County	15,583	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Fond du Lac County	14,208	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Jefferson County	13,043	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Dodge County	12,131	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Portage County	11,973	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Manitowoc County	11,421	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Wood County	10,522	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Sauk County	10,305	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Chippewa County	9,608	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Columbia County	9,535	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Calumet County	8,497	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Waupaca County	7,067	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Douglas County	7,016	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Grant County	6,955	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Polk County	6,667	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Dunn County	6,589	Harris	55.3%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Pierce County	6,570	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Barron County	6,362	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Oneida County	6,308	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Green County	6,103	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Door County	5,799	Harris	55.3%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Monroe County	5,725	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Marinette County	5,477	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Oconto County	5,380	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Shawano County	5,328	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Vernon County	4,365	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Lincoln County	4,159	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Iowa County	4,137	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Trempealeau County	4,011	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Vilas County	3,990	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Juneau County	3,480	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Clark County	3,383	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Waushara County	3,373	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Bayfield County	3,190	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Adams County	3,141	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Kewaunee County	2,882	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Sawyer County	2,856	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Jackson County	2,681	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Langlade County	2,646	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Washburn County	2,624	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Green Lake County	2,536	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Burnett County	2,530	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Ashland County	2,469	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Richland County	2,376	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Crawford County	2,338	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Taylor County	2,322	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Lafayette County	2,211	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Marquette County	2,211	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Price County	2,053	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Buffalo County	1,911	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Rusk County	1,859	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Forest County	1,167	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Pepin County	1,032	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Iron County	981	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Florence County	657	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Menominee County	463	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.2%

NewsomFavorite, wins 28% of runs

26.1%Newsom's projected share