2028 forecast · Wisconsin · President · 10 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Wisconsin.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +8.9 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +13.8 and D +4.0. Projected votes: 1,870,077 Democratic, 1,565,198 Republican, 53,839 other, 3,489,114 in all.
99%Democratic win chance
D +8.92028 margin
R +0.92024 actual
15%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +0.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +10.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.8% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +8.9 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,415,213 in 2024, 3,489,114 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Wisconsin| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +10.3 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +10.0 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +10.0 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +9.7 | 99% |
| Harris | D +9.6 | 99% |
| Cuban | D +9.5 | 99% |
| BookerHYP | D +9.2 | 99% |
| BrownHYP | D +9.1 | 99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +9.1 | 99% |
| Ossoff | D +9.0 | 99% |
| WalzHYP | D +9.0 | 99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +9.0 | 99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +8.9 | 99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +8.9 | 99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +8.9 | 99% |
| KellyHYP | D +8.8 | 99% |
| PolisHYP | D +8.8 | 99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +8.7 | 99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +8.6 | 99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +8.4 | 99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +8.3 | 99% |
| Shapiro | D +8.3 | 99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +8.2 | 98% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +8.1 | 98% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +8.0 | 98% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +7.6 | 98% |
| MooreHYP | D +7.6 | 98% |
| Newsom | D +6.8 | 96% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +5.6 | 93% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Wisconsin| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +9.8 | 99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +9.7 | 99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +9.6 | 99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +9.5 | 99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +9.4 | 99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +9.4 | 99% |
| KempHYP | D +9.3 | 99% |
| Rubio | D +9.3 | 99% |
| CruzHYP | D +9.3 | 99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +9.3 | 99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +9.0 | 99% |
| Vance | D +8.9 | 99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +8.6 | 99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
72 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee County | D +39.2 | D +53.9 | D +60 to D +48 | 351,430 | 105,205 | 464,693 | D +0.31 | Even |
| Dane County | D +52.5 | D +66.7 | D +73 to D +60 | 323,209 | 64,673 | 394,017 | D +0.07 | R +0.16 |
| Waukesha County | R +20.0 | R +7.3 | R +1 to R +14 | 128,417 | 148,645 | 281,150 | R +0.24 | D +0.17 |
| Brown County | R +7.6 | D +1.2 | D +7 to R +5 | 76,933 | 75,110 | 154,300 | R +0.13 | D +0.10 |
| Outagamie County | R +10.3 | R +2.1 | D +4 to R +8 | 55,854 | 58,272 | 115,980 | R +0.20 | D +0.13 |
| Racine County | R +6.2 | D +2.5 | D +9 to R +4 | 54,615 | 51,981 | 108,122 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Winnebago County | R +4.8 | D +1.7 | D +8 to R +5 | 49,205 | 47,606 | 98,391 | R +0.19 | D +0.05 |
| Washington County | R +36.7 | R +26.2 | R +20 to R +33 | 33,816 | 57,807 | 92,849 | R +0.28 | D +0.18 |
| Kenosha County | R +6.3 | D +1.6 | D +8 to R +5 | 45,863 | 44,384 | 91,590 | Even | Even |
| Rock County | D +7.4 | D +14.3 | D +21 to D +8 | 50,592 | 37,898 | 89,893 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Marathon County | R +18.9 | R +12.0 | R +6 to R +18 | 34,360 | 43,740 | 79,192 | R +0.30 | D +0.06 |
| La Crosse County | D +9.5 | D +16.7 | D +23 to D +10 | 43,481 | 31,055 | 75,722 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Eau Claire County | D +10.7 | D +18.5 | D +25 to D +12 | 39,479 | 27,147 | 67,712 | R +0.14 | D +0.06 |
| Sheboygan County | R +16.6 | R +9.8 | R +4 to R +16 | 29,933 | 36,465 | 67,430 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Ozaukee County | R +10.6 | D +1.6 | D +8 to R +5 | 32,618 | 31,587 | 65,157 | R +0.29 | D +0.17 |
| St. Croix County | R +19.6 | R +7.6 | R +1 to R +14 | 28,845 | 33,584 | 63,608 | R +0.26 | D +0.32 |
| Walworth County | R +22.5 | R +16.2 | R +10 to R +22 | 25,579 | 35,471 | 61,915 | R +0.23 | D +0.07 |
| Fond du Lac County | R +29.0 | R +22.9 | R +16 to R +29 | 22,244 | 35,434 | 58,470 | R +0.30 | D +0.07 |
| Jefferson County | R +16.6 | R +9.7 | R +4 to R +16 | 22,555 | 27,424 | 50,756 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Dodge County | R +33.4 | R +26.8 | R +20 to R +33 | 18,048 | 31,234 | 50,032 | R +0.28 | D +0.05 |
| Manitowoc County | R +23.7 | R +18.3 | R +12 to R +25 | 18,383 | 26,607 | 45,684 | R +0.39 | D +0.05 |
| Portage County | D +1.2 | D +7.8 | D +14 to D +2 | 24,199 | 20,682 | 45,647 | R +0.19 | D +0.07 |
| Wood County | R +20.2 | R +15.2 | R +9 to R +22 | 17,391 | 23,607 | 41,601 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Chippewa County | R +23.2 | R +16.1 | R +10 to R +23 | 16,126 | 22,308 | 38,962 | R +0.36 | D +0.18 |
| Sauk County | R +1.7 | D +4.8 | D +11 to R +2 | 19,386 | 17,620 | 37,629 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Columbia County | R +4.7 | D +2.8 | D +9 to R +4 | 17,525 | 16,560 | 34,598 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Calumet County | R +20.2 | R +10.3 | R +4 to R +17 | 14,927 | 18,368 | 33,801 | R +0.24 | D +0.17 |
| Waupaca County | R +33.8 | R +28.3 | R +22 to R +35 | 10,577 | 18,920 | 29,882 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Grant County | R +18.4 | R +13.8 | R +7 to R +20 | 12,064 | 15,920 | 28,426 | R +0.27 | D +0.08 |
| Polk County | R +31.3 | R +25.5 | R +19 to R +32 | 10,373 | 17,488 | 28,259 | R +0.41 | D +0.22 |
| Dunn County | R +16.1 | R +10.4 | R +4 to R +17 | 12,056 | 14,841 | 27,297 | R +0.20 | D +0.10 |
| Pierce County | R +17.3 | R +10.3 | R +4 to R +17 | 11,753 | 14,465 | 26,906 | R +0.21 | D +0.20 |
| Barron County | R +30.3 | R +25.9 | R +19 to R +33 | 9,431 | 16,036 | 26,253 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Oconto County | R +43.5 | R +36.4 | R +30 to R +43 | 7,897 | 16,954 | 25,138 | R +0.38 | D +0.40 |
| Douglas County | D +5.4 | D +11.9 | D +18 to D +5 | 13,810 | 10,875 | 25,081 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Oneida County | R +17.8 | R +12.5 | R +6 to R +19 | 10,509 | 13,506 | 24,353 | R +0.51 | D +0.13 |
| Marinette County | R +38.4 | R +33.7 | R +27 to R +40 | 7,895 | 15,925 | 24,125 | R +0.46 | D +0.27 |
| Shawano County | R +36.7 | R +32.3 | R +26 to R +39 | 7,833 | 15,323 | 23,462 | R +0.33 | D +0.22 |
| Monroe County | R +26.4 | R +20.2 | R +14 to R +27 | 9,171 | 13,819 | 23,320 | R +0.34 | D +0.06 |
| Green County | D +0.3 | D +8.0 | D +15 to D +2 | 11,693 | 9,955 | 21,966 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Door County | D +2.3 | D +8.3 | D +15 to D +2 | 10,968 | 9,286 | 20,522 | R +0.55 | D +0.11 |
| Lincoln County | R +25.5 | R +20.8 | R +14 to R +27 | 6,583 | 10,035 | 16,874 | R +0.45 | D +0.05 |
| Vernon County | R +7.9 | R +2.6 | D +4 to R +9 | 8,015 | 8,449 | 16,736 | R +0.45 | D +0.16 |
| Trempealeau County | R +21.7 | R +16.6 | R +10 to R +23 | 6,623 | 9,255 | 16,091 | R +0.36 | D +0.09 |
| Vilas County | R +23.3 | R +18.6 | R +12 to R +25 | 6,409 | 9,341 | 15,928 | R +0.48 | D +0.35 |
| Clark County | R +39.8 | R +37.0 | R +30 to R +44 | 4,762 | 10,343 | 15,412 | R +0.34 | D +0.14 |
| Iowa County | D +7.8 | D +15.1 | D +21 to D +9 | 8,319 | 6,139 | 14,720 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Waushara County | R +35.6 | R +31.2 | R +25 to R +38 | 4,854 | 9,266 | 14,301 | R +0.42 | D +0.37 |
| Juneau County | R +32.5 | R +28.6 | R +22 to R +35 | 5,034 | 9,075 | 14,282 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Adams County | R +27.2 | R +24.2 | R +18 to R +31 | 4,671 | 7,652 | 12,752 | R +0.52 | D +0.53 |
| Kewaunee County | R +34.1 | R +27.8 | R +21 to R +34 | 4,435 | 7,852 | 12,451 | R +0.38 | D +0.12 |
| Langlade County | R +35.0 | R +31.2 | R +24 to R +38 | 3,890 | 7,417 | 11,449 | R +0.45 | D +0.13 |
| Sawyer County | R +16.5 | R +12.2 | R +6 to R +19 | 4,845 | 6,188 | 11,154 | R +0.38 | D +0.35 |
| Bayfield County | D +11.4 | D +17.0 | D +23 to D +11 | 6,404 | 4,545 | 11,153 | R +0.45 | D +0.10 |
| Taylor County | R +48.8 | R +43.7 | R +37 to R +51 | 3,072 | 7,848 | 11,084 | R +0.36 | D +0.16 |
| Green Lake County | R +36.8 | R +31.2 | R +25 to R +38 | 3,745 | 7,134 | 11,022 | R +0.40 | D +0.23 |
| Washburn County | R +28.6 | R +24.1 | R +18 to R +31 | 4,077 | 6,669 | 10,888 | R +0.50 | D +0.34 |
| Burnett County | R +31.3 | R +28.1 | R +22 to R +35 | 3,801 | 6,768 | 10,709 | R +0.53 | D +0.52 |
| Jackson County | R +19.8 | R +16.9 | R +10 to R +24 | 4,236 | 5,961 | 10,346 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Marquette County | R +30.0 | R +26.9 | R +20 to R +34 | 3,351 | 5,812 | 9,282 | R +0.49 | D +0.27 |
| Lafayette County | R +20.5 | R +16.5 | R +10 to R +23 | 3,712 | 5,181 | 9,010 | R +0.40 | D +0.34 |
| Ashland County | D +4.8 | D +8.9 | D +15 to D +2 | 4,834 | 4,044 | 9,012 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Richland County | R +13.3 | R +11.1 | R +5 to R +18 | 3,928 | 4,910 | 8,961 | R +0.51 | Even |
| Crawford County | R +14.0 | R +11.3 | R +5 to R +18 | 3,860 | 4,842 | 8,824 | R +0.48 | Even |
| Price County | R +31.5 | R +28.9 | R +22 to R +36 | 2,998 | 5,437 | 8,537 | R +0.51 | D +0.07 |
| Rusk County | R +38.5 | R +35.4 | R +29 to R +42 | 2,569 | 5,387 | 8,054 | R +0.46 | D +0.10 |
| Buffalo County | R +30.7 | R +26.4 | R +20 to R +33 | 2,888 | 4,961 | 7,967 | R +0.45 | D +0.08 |
| Forest County | R +33.6 | R +31.1 | R +24 to R +38 | 1,760 | 3,351 | 5,155 | R +0.35 | D +0.48 |
| Pepin County | R +29.5 | R +24.9 | R +18 to R +32 | 1,615 | 2,687 | 4,349 | R +0.48 | D +0.30 |
| Iron County | R +26.5 | R +23.3 | R +17 to R +30 | 1,481 | 2,381 | 3,902 | R +0.57 | D +0.14 |
| Florence County | R +50.1 | R +43.0 | R +37 to R +50 | 885 | 2,223 | 3,134 | R +0.46 | D +0.62 |
| Menominee County | D +62.1 | D +71.7 | D +78 to D +65 | 1,338 | 220 | 1,569 | D +0.46 | Even |