2028 forecast · Washington · President · 12 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Washington.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +38.8 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +45.6 and D +31.8. Projected votes: 2,687,406 Democratic, 1,185,836 Republican, 107,999 other, 3,981,241 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +38.82028 margin
D +18.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +18.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +36.8 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +38.8 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,898,835 in 2024, 3,981,242 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Washington| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +40.4 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +40.2 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +39.8 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +39.6 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +39.6 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +39.3 | >99% |
| Harris | D +39.2 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +39.1 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +38.9 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +38.9 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +38.8 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +38.7 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +38.7 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +38.6 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +38.5 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +38.5 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +38.3 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +38.2 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +37.9 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +37.7 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +37.6 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +37.2 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +37.2 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +35.3 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Washington| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +39.4 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +39.1 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +39.1 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +39.1 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +39.0 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +39.0 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +38.9 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +38.9 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +38.9 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +38.8 | >99% |
| Vance | D +38.8 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +38.7 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +38.3 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
39 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King County | D +53.5 | D +80.1 | D +88 to D +72 | 978,403 | 108,336 | 1,117,707 | D +0.18 | R +0.17 |
| Pierce County | D +11.1 | D +28.7 | D +37 to D +21 | 278,997 | 154,609 | 445,759 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Snohomish County | D +19.6 | D +40.2 | D +48 to D +32 | 290,608 | 124,059 | 426,971 | D +0.10 | Even |
| Spokane County | R +5.1 | D +8.9 | D +17 to D +1 | 156,002 | 130,369 | 294,324 | R +0.13 | D +0.16 |
| Clark County | D +7.2 | D +24.8 | D +33 to D +17 | 175,240 | 105,651 | 288,119 | Even | D +0.15 |
| Thurston County | D +21.1 | D +39.7 | D +48 to D +32 | 114,249 | 49,305 | 168,619 | Even | Even |
| Kitsap County | D +21.7 | D +39.5 | D +47 to D +32 | 108,272 | 46,963 | 159,918 | Even | Even |
| Whatcom County | D +25.7 | D +39.7 | D +48 to D +32 | 96,345 | 41,548 | 141,896 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Benton County | R +22.5 | Even | D +8 to R +8 | 51,398 | 51,416 | 105,508 | D +0.05 | D +0.48 |
| Yakima County | R +14.7 | D +10.8 | D +20 to D +1 | 47,952 | 38,633 | 88,584 | D +0.46 | D +0.07 |
| Skagit County | D +9.1 | D +26.1 | D +34 to D +18 | 43,856 | 25,704 | 71,483 | R +0.05 | D +0.06 |
| Cowlitz County | R +20.5 | R +9.6 | R +1 to R +18 | 26,976 | 32,720 | 61,233 | R +0.15 | D +0.27 |
| Island County | D +17.1 | D +31.6 | D +39 to D +24 | 33,161 | 17,239 | 51,766 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Clallam County | D +8.1 | D +22.5 | D +31 to D +15 | 29,445 | 18,621 | 49,268 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Lewis County | R +34.0 | R +17.5 | R +9 to R +26 | 19,281 | 27,456 | 47,975 | R +0.15 | D +0.64 |
| Chelan County | R +9.7 | D +10.6 | D +19 to D +3 | 23,082 | 18,659 | 42,762 | Even | D +0.14 |
| Grays Harbor County | R +6.2 | D +5.8 | D +14 to R +3 | 19,991 | 17,815 | 38,787 | R +0.11 | D +0.15 |
| Mason County | R +2.6 | D +10.3 | D +19 to D +2 | 20,786 | 16,903 | 38,778 | R +0.12 | D +0.31 |
| Grant County | R +38.5 | R +15.6 | R +7 to R +24 | 15,489 | 21,208 | 37,592 | D +0.20 | D +0.54 |
| Franklin County | R +23.3 | D +3.3 | D +13 to R +6 | 16,633 | 15,565 | 32,951 | D +0.51 | D +0.37 |
| Stevens County | R +45.3 | R +29.6 | R +21 to R +38 | 10,301 | 18,942 | 29,929 | R +0.16 | D +0.76 |
| Walla Walla County | R +8.3 | D +7.6 | D +16 to R +1 | 15,409 | 13,232 | 29,372 | Even | Even |
| Kittitas County | R +15.1 | R +2.3 | D +6 to R +10 | 13,063 | 13,683 | 27,509 | R +0.13 | D +0.30 |
| Jefferson County | D +46.8 | D +70.2 | D +78 to D +62 | 20,989 | 3,671 | 25,350 | R +0.15 | R +0.11 |
| Douglas County | R +27.7 | R +5.6 | D +3 to R +14 | 10,286 | 11,511 | 22,321 | D +0.05 | D +0.59 |
| Okanogan County | R +15.4 | D +2.7 | D +11 to R +5 | 10,647 | 10,079 | 21,250 | Even | D +0.32 |
| Whitman County | D +9.3 | D +22.7 | D +31 to D +15 | 11,782 | 7,429 | 19,800 | Even | Even |
| Pacific County | R +1.3 | D +12.7 | D +21 to D +5 | 8,114 | 6,291 | 14,733 | R +0.16 | D +0.17 |
| Klickitat County | R +9.6 | D +9.0 | D +17 to D +1 | 7,556 | 6,306 | 14,247 | R +0.15 | D +0.34 |
| San Juan County | D +53.5 | D +79.3 | D +87 to D +71 | 11,679 | 1,350 | 13,457 | R +0.14 | R +0.20 |
| Asotin County | R +26.4 | R +12.7 | R +5 to R +21 | 4,932 | 6,365 | 11,590 | R +0.24 | D +0.11 |
| Pend Oreille County | R +40.6 | R +27.9 | R +20 to R +36 | 3,212 | 5,698 | 9,119 | R +0.19 | D +0.81 |
| Lincoln County | R +51.7 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 2,459 | 5,133 | 7,753 | R +0.20 | D +1.18 |
| Skamania County | R +11.5 | D +7.9 | D +16 to R +0 | 4,037 | 3,446 | 7,681 | R +0.20 | D +0.30 |
| Adams County | R +44.3 | R +17.0 | R +7 to R +27 | 2,224 | 3,135 | 5,474 | D +0.43 | D +0.36 |
| Ferry County | R +34.0 | R +21.2 | R +13 to R +30 | 1,642 | 2,527 | 4,275 | Even | D +0.43 |
| Wahkiakum County | R +18.7 | R +6.2 | D +2 to R +14 | 1,524 | 1,724 | 3,335 | R +0.18 | D +0.68 |
| Columbia County | R +44.9 | R +28.7 | R +21 to R +37 | 894 | 1,613 | 2,576 | R +0.15 | D +0.49 |
| Garfield County | R +49.3 | R +31.1 | R +23 to R +39 | 475 | 904 | 1,417 | R +0.21 | D +0.68 |