2028 forecast · Washington · Democratic primary

Washington Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

Ocasio-CortezFavorite, wins 45% of runs

20.2%Ocasio-Cortez's projected share

1,545,072Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Buttigieg	24.7%	381,538	42%	15.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	20.2%	311,619	45%	18.1%
Harris	14.5%	224,488	1%	5.1%
Newsom	13.9%	214,251	9%	9.9%
Ossoff	8.2%	126,394	1%	7.1%
Kelly	3.8%	59,188	1%	6.4%
Shapiro	2.7%	41,764	1%	5.1%
Beshear	0.6%	9,272	<1%	3.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Washington votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Washington

Progressive36%

Institutional19%

Democratic leaning independents14%

Working class and union14%

Civil rights coalition9%

Moderate independents3%

Black 7.5%, Hispanic 11.4%, Asian and other 10.2%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 32.3%, college graduates 45%, women 54.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,558,776 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,545,072 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
King County	498,438	Buttigieg	28.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.1%
Pierce County	177,287	Harris	20.5%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.2%
Snohomish County	164,975	Buttigieg	23.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.8%
Clark County	103,448	Buttigieg	23.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.2%
Spokane County	101,019	Buttigieg	24.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.4%
Thurston County	65,298	Buttigieg	24.3%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.6%
Kitsap County	61,332	Buttigieg	25.2%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.9%
Whatcom County	53,586	Buttigieg	27.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.5%
Benton County	34,764	Buttigieg	22.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	17.4%
Yakima County	34,604	Harris	21.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.8%
Skagit County	26,461	Buttigieg	22.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.9%
Island County	20,173	Buttigieg	24.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.4%
Cowlitz County	18,767	Buttigieg	21.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.4%
Clallam County	17,523	Buttigieg	25.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.5%
Chelan County	15,193	Buttigieg	23.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.6%
Lewis County	13,468	Buttigieg	22.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.4%
Grays Harbor County	12,852	Buttigieg	20.5%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.3%
Mason County	12,717	Buttigieg	21.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.2%
Franklin County	12,486	Harris	23.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	17.0%
Grant County	11,847	Harris	21.1%	Buttigieg	16.8%
Walla Walla County	10,881	Buttigieg	21.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.1%
Jefferson County	9,761	Buttigieg	30.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	23.4%
Kittitas County	9,011	Buttigieg	27.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	18.2%
Stevens County	7,617	Buttigieg	24.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.7%
Whitman County	7,598	Buttigieg	31.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.2%
Douglas County	6,996	Buttigieg	19.4%	Harris	18.3%
Okanogan County	6,837	Buttigieg	22.7%	Ocasio-Cortez	22.2%
San Juan County	5,336	Buttigieg	33.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	23.5%
Pacific County	4,949	Buttigieg	23.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.5%
Klickitat County	4,653	Buttigieg	25.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	21.9%
Asotin County	3,494	Buttigieg	25.4%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.9%
Skamania County	2,465	Buttigieg	25.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	17.7%
Pend Oreille County	2,368	Buttigieg	23.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.9%
Lincoln County	1,862	Buttigieg	25.4%	Harris	16.2%
Adams County	1,807	Harris	22.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.8%
Ferry County	1,168	Buttigieg	22.6%	Harris	17.5%
Wahkiakum County	976	Buttigieg	23.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.6%
Columbia County	693	Buttigieg	24.0%	Ocasio-Cortez	20.4%
Garfield County	362	Buttigieg	28.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	16.6%

Ocasio-CortezFavorite, wins 47% of runs

22.4%Ocasio-Cortez's projected share