2028 forecast · Vermont · President · 3 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Vermont.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +49.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +56.5 and D +42.8. Projected votes: 269,682 Democratic, 90,584 Republican, 9,812 other, 370,078 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +49.72028 margin
D +32.82024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +32.8 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +48.0 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.7 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.7% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +49.7 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 366,389 in 2024, 370,079 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Vermont| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +52.3 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +51.2 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +50.8 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +50.6 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +50.5 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +50.4 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +50.4 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +50.3 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +50.2 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +50.1 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +50.0 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +50.0 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +49.9 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +49.9 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +49.8 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +49.7 | >99% |
| Harris | D +49.6 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +49.5 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +49.4 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +49.3 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +49.0 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +49.0 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +48.8 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +48.6 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +48.3 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +48.0 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +48.0 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +47.7 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +45.4 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Vermont| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Tim ScottHYP | D +51.0 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +50.9 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +50.9 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +50.7 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +50.6 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +50.5 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +50.4 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +50.1 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +50.1 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +50.0 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +49.9 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +49.8 | >99% |
| Vance | D +49.7 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
14 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | D +55.3 | D +75.4 | D +84 to D +67 | 86,180 | 12,081 | 100,812 | R +0.05 | R +0.05 |
| Washington County | D +44.9 | D +66.1 | D +74 to D +58 | 28,292 | 5,769 | 35,081 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Windsor County | D +36.7 | D +53.7 | D +61 to D +46 | 24,932 | 7,510 | 33,293 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Rutland County | D +5.4 | D +17.3 | D +25 to D +10 | 19,009 | 13,394 | 33,212 | R +0.44 | Even |
| Franklin County | D +3.1 | D +17.5 | D +25 to D +10 | 15,583 | 10,945 | 27,247 | R +0.32 | D +0.09 |
| Windham County | D +44.2 | D +60.5 | D +68 to D +53 | 19,633 | 4,832 | 25,186 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Addison County | D +37.0 | D +51.5 | D +59 to D +44 | 16,958 | 5,432 | 22,997 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Bennington County | D +23.1 | D +36.7 | D +45 to D +29 | 13,387 | 6,194 | 20,049 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Orange County | D +20.9 | D +34.5 | D +42 to D +27 | 11,594 | 5,642 | 17,774 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Caledonia County | D +12.9 | D +25.7 | D +34 to D +18 | 10,052 | 5,943 | 16,490 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Lamoille County | D +37.0 | D +57.1 | D +65 to D +49 | 11,399 | 3,117 | 14,926 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Orleans County | R +1.6 | D +8.1 | D +16 to D +0 | 7,680 | 6,524 | 14,570 | R +0.46 | D +0.07 |
| Grand Isle County | D +21.7 | D +40.4 | D +48 to D +33 | 3,459 | 1,467 | 5,046 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Essex County | R +16.9 | R +6.5 | D +2 to R +15 | 1,519 | 1,730 | 3,379 | R +0.53 | D +0.23 |