2028 forecast · Vermont · Democratic primary
Vermont Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 31.7% | 48,501 | 56% | 21.7% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 22.6% | 34,543 | 41% | 23.1% |
| Newsom | 11.3% | 17,292 | 3% | 8.1% |
| Harris | 9.1% | 13,883 | <1% | 1.9% |
| Ossoff | 6.1% | 9,274 | <1% | 4.2% |
| Kelly | 3.5% | 5,272 | <1% | 4.8% |
| Shapiro | 3.1% | 4,776 | 1% | 5.5% |
| Beshear | 0.8% | 1,230 | <1% | 3.0% |
| Whitmer | 0.6% | 985 | <1% | 0.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Vermont votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VermontBlack 1.7%, Hispanic 1.3%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 35.5%, college graduates 52.9%, women 53.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 158,032 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 152,916 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 42,690 | Buttigieg | 30.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 30.1% |
| Washington County | 15,199 | Buttigieg | 33.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.1% |
| Windsor County | 14,340 | Buttigieg | 35.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 14.8% |
| Rutland County | 13,105 | Buttigieg | 30.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3% |
| Windham County | 11,032 | Buttigieg | 34.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% |
| Franklin County | 10,058 | Buttigieg | 27.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% |
| Addison County | 9,486 | Buttigieg | 30.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.8% |
| Bennington County | 8,472 | Buttigieg | 32.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% |
| Orange County | 7,081 | Buttigieg | 32.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% |
| Caledonia County | 6,486 | Buttigieg | 29.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% |
| Lamoille County | 6,258 | Buttigieg | 32.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.9% |
| Orleans County | 5,499 | Buttigieg | 28.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.3% |
| Grand Isle County | 2,037 | Buttigieg | 33.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.0% |
| Essex County | 1,173 | Buttigieg | 27.3% | Harris | 16.2% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 30.9% | 47,306 | 54% | 22.1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 24.1% | 36,898 | 42% | 23.6% |
| Newsom | 12.3% | 18,867 | 2% | 8.3% |
| Ossoff | 8.0% | 12,241 | <1% | 4.2% |
| Kelly | 5.1% | 7,835 | <1% | 4.9% |
| Shapiro | 4.7% | 7,236 | 1% | 5.6% |
| Beshear | 1.7% | 2,645 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Whitmer | 1.1% | 1,718 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Booker | 0.6% | 844 | <1% | 1.0% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Vermont votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in VermontBlack 1.7%, Hispanic 1.3%, Asian and other 2.3%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 35.5%, college graduates 52.9%, women 53.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 158,032 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 152,916 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden County | 42,690 | Ocasio-Cortez | 32.4% | Buttigieg | 29.4% |
| Washington County | 15,199 | Buttigieg | 33.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.4% |
| Windsor County | 14,340 | Buttigieg | 35.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 15.4% |
| Rutland County | 13,105 | Buttigieg | 30.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.5% |
| Windham County | 11,032 | Buttigieg | 33.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.5% |
| Franklin County | 10,058 | Buttigieg | 27.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.2% |
| Addison County | 9,486 | Buttigieg | 29.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.6% |
| Bennington County | 8,472 | Buttigieg | 32.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.3% |
| Orange County | 7,081 | Buttigieg | 31.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.4% |
| Caledonia County | 6,486 | Buttigieg | 29.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.4% |
| Lamoille County | 6,258 | Buttigieg | 31.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.4% |
| Orleans County | 5,499 | Buttigieg | 28.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.5% |
| Grand Isle County | 2,037 | Buttigieg | 33.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.2% |
| Essex County | 1,173 | Buttigieg | 27.5% | Newsom | 14.7% |