2028 forecast · Utah · President · 6 electoral votes
The Republican is slightly favored to carry Utah.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +2.2 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +4.7 and R +9.1. Projected votes: 749,153 Democratic, 782,720 Republican, 45,465 other, 1,577,338 in all.
34%Democratic win chance
R +2.22028 margin
R +22.22024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +22.2 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +4.3 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.7 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +2.2 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,487,951 in 2024, 1,577,339 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Utah| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +0.4 | 47% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +0.9 | 43% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +1.1 | 42% |
| CooperHYP | R +1.2 | 41% |
| Ossoff | R +1.4 | 39% |
| Cuban | R +1.6 | 38% |
| Harris | R +1.6 | 38% |
| BrownHYP | R +1.8 | 37% |
| BookerHYP | R +1.9 | 36% |
| GallegoHYP | R +2.0 | 35% |
| KellyHYP | R +2.0 | 35% |
| WalzHYP | R +2.1 | 35% |
| Generic Democrat | R +2.2 | 34% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +2.2 | 34% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +2.2 | 34% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +2.3 | 34% |
| Shapiro | R +2.3 | 34% |
| MurphyHYP | R +2.3 | 33% |
| PolisHYP | R +2.3 | 33% |
| KhannaHYP | R +2.3 | 33% |
| BeshearHYP | R +2.7 | 31% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +2.9 | 30% |
| CrockettHYP | R +2.9 | 29% |
| Newsom | R +3.0 | 29% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +3.1 | 28% |
| WarnockHYP | R +3.3 | 27% |
| MooreHYP | R +3.5 | 26% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +3.8 | 24% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +5.2 | 17% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Utah| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Tim ScottHYP | R +1.6 | 38% |
| CottonHYP | R +1.7 | 37% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +1.9 | 36% |
| CruzHYP | R +2.0 | 36% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +2.0 | 35% |
| KempHYP | R +2.2 | 34% |
| Vance | R +2.2 | 34% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +2.3 | 34% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +2.3 | 34% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +2.4 | 33% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +2.5 | 32% |
| HaleyHYP | R +2.7 | 31% |
| Rubio | R +2.8 | 30% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
29 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | D +10.5 | D +25.3 | D +33 to D +18 | 311,299 | 185,519 | 511,614 | Even | Even |
| Utah County | R +41.1 | R +14.0 | R +6 to R +22 | 138,032 | 183,080 | 331,800 | R +0.11 | D +1.37 |
| Davis County | R +25.7 | R +0.6 | D +7 to R +8 | 83,587 | 84,591 | 173,713 | R +0.11 | D +0.38 |
| Weber County | R +24.2 | R +3.9 | D +4 to R +12 | 54,973 | 59,462 | 117,936 | Even | D +0.45 |
| Washington County | R +53.2 | R +25.6 | R +18 to R +34 | 40,831 | 68,997 | 112,183 | R +0.14 | D +2.02 |
| Cache County | R +35.6 | R +21.9 | R +14 to R +30 | 24,371 | 38,043 | 64,558 | R +0.16 | D +0.78 |
| Tooele County | R +42.1 | R +18.6 | R +11 to R +27 | 15,678 | 22,836 | 39,678 | R +0.07 | D +1.87 |
| Box Elder County | R +62.5 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 10,008 | 21,250 | 32,158 | R +0.14 | D +1.69 |
| Iron County | R +58.3 | R +38.6 | R +31 to R +46 | 9,515 | 21,465 | 31,787 | R +0.12 | D +2.00 |
| Summit County | D +15.1 | D +39.3 | D +48 to D +31 | 17,820 | 7,765 | 26,126 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Wasatch County | R +28.0 | R +1.1 | D +7 to R +9 | 9,575 | 9,780 | 19,848 | R +0.19 | D +0.79 |
| Uintah County | R +74.9 | R +50.0 | R +42 to R +58 | 4,121 | 12,369 | 16,834 | R +0.07 | D +1.11 |
| Sanpete County | R +69.6 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +62 | 3,129 | 10,453 | 13,986 | R +0.12 | D +1.41 |
| Sevier County | R +77.0 | R +52.4 | R +44 to R +61 | 2,706 | 8,663 | 11,580 | R +0.13 | D +1.00 |
| Carbon County | R +45.4 | R +28.1 | R +20 to R +36 | 3,391 | 6,037 | 9,645 | R +0.10 | D +0.18 |
| Duchesne County | R +77.1 | R +51.5 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,264 | 7,067 | 9,506 | R +0.10 | D +1.02 |
| Juab County | R +77.1 | R +59.9 | R +52 to R +68 | 1,445 | 5,770 | 7,367 | R +0.12 | D +2.23 |
| Morgan County | R +61.7 | R +34.0 | R +26 to R +42 | 2,340 | 4,748 | 7,304 | R +0.22 | D +1.17 |
| Millard County | R +77.3 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,525 | 5,089 | 6,753 | R +0.09 | D +1.16 |
| San Juan County | R +16.7 | R +0.6 | D +8 to R +9 | 3,099 | 3,137 | 6,384 | D +0.60 | Even |
| Grand County | D +9.7 | D +29.8 | D +38 to D +22 | 3,372 | 1,824 | 5,335 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Emery County | R +75.6 | R +52.3 | R +44 to R +61 | 1,221 | 3,900 | 5,205 | R +0.12 | D +0.61 |
| Kane County | R +48.5 | R +25.7 | R +18 to R +34 | 1,808 | 3,061 | 4,964 | R +0.16 | D +1.32 |
| Beaver County | R +75.2 | R +53.3 | R +45 to R +61 | 759 | 2,495 | 3,305 | R +0.11 | D +0.48 |
| Garfield County | R +60.7 | R +38.6 | R +31 to R +47 | 871 | 1,967 | 2,903 | R +0.17 | D +0.45 |
| Wayne County | R +52.9 | R +28.0 | R +20 to R +36 | 607 | 1,080 | 1,722 | R +0.17 | D +0.53 |
| Rich County | R +70.0 | R +44.0 | R +36 to R +52 | 424 | 1,090 | 1,543 | R +0.15 | D +1.05 |
| Piute County | R +80.2 | R +58.9 | R +51 to R +67 | 203 | 787 | 1,006 | R +0.11 | D +0.78 |
| Daggett County | R +62.9 | R +39.5 | R +31 to R +48 | 165 | 381 | 554 | R +0.18 | Even |