2028 forecast · Utah · Democratic primary
Utah Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 29.5% | 80,328 | 60% | 19.7% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% | 52,529 | 32% | 17.6% |
| Newsom | 12.7% | 34,487 | 6% | 9.8% |
| Harris | 11.6% | 31,479 | <1% | 3.4% |
| Ossoff | 6.9% | 18,676 | <1% | 5.0% |
| Kelly | 4.3% | 11,561 | 1% | 6.6% |
| Shapiro | 3.1% | 8,414 | 1% | 5.2% |
| Beshear | 0.9% | 2,338 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Whitmer | 0.7% | 1,801 | <1% | 0.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Utah votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in UtahBlack 2.2%, Hispanic 13.8%, Asian and other 4.4%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 44%, women 54.6%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 220,582 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 272,190 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | 110,966 | Buttigieg | 27.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.6% |
| Utah County | 49,540 | Buttigieg | 33.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% |
| Davis County | 30,299 | Buttigieg | 30.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% |
| Weber County | 20,734 | Buttigieg | 24.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.2% |
| Washington County | 14,261 | Buttigieg | 30.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.4% |
| Cache County | 10,221 | Buttigieg | 33.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% |
| Summit County | 5,590 | Buttigieg | 41.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% |
| Tooele County | 5,464 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.6% | Buttigieg | 22.1% |
| Iron County | 3,915 | Buttigieg | 29.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.1% |
| Box Elder County | 3,820 | Buttigieg | 27.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.5% |
| Wasatch County | 3,306 | Buttigieg | 37.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.9% |
| Uintah County | 1,773 | Buttigieg | 25.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.8% |
| Sanpete County | 1,597 | Buttigieg | 26.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.8% |
| Carbon County | 1,465 | Buttigieg | 22.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.4% |
| Sevier County | 1,201 | Buttigieg | 27.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.3% |
| Grand County | 1,091 | Buttigieg | 29.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 25.0% |
| San Juan County | 1,078 | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.1% | Buttigieg | 24.4% |
| Duchesne County | 977 | Buttigieg | 26.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.4% |
| Morgan County | 901 | Buttigieg | 35.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.6% |
| Juab County | 725 | Buttigieg | 25.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.5% |
| Millard County | 715 | Buttigieg | 26.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.1% |
| Kane County | 664 | Buttigieg | 29.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.7% |
| Emery County | 559 | Buttigieg | 25.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.2% |
| Garfield County | 377 | Buttigieg | 27.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.4% |
| Beaver County | 372 | Buttigieg | 26.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.6% |
| Wayne County | 233 | Buttigieg | 29.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.2% |
| Rich County | 174 | Buttigieg | 27.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.7% |
| Piute County | 103 | Buttigieg | 25.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.3% |
| Daggett County | 69 | Buttigieg | 26.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.1% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 29.2% | 79,528 | 58% | 20.5% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 20.8% | 56,546 | 33% | 18.3% |
| Newsom | 14.3% | 38,960 | 6% | 10.2% |
| Ossoff | 9.3% | 25,367 | <1% | 5.2% |
| Kelly | 6.6% | 17,848 | 1% | 6.9% |
| Shapiro | 4.8% | 13,002 | 1% | 5.4% |
| Beshear | 1.9% | 5,130 | <1% | 3.2% |
| Whitmer | 1.2% | 3,232 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Booker | 0.6% | 1,667 | <1% | 1.1% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Utah votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in UtahBlack 2.2%, Hispanic 13.8%, Asian and other 4.4%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 32.9%, college graduates 44%, women 54.6%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 220,582 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 272,190 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salt Lake County | 110,966 | Buttigieg | 27.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.3% |
| Utah County | 49,540 | Buttigieg | 33.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% |
| Davis County | 30,299 | Buttigieg | 30.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.6% |
| Weber County | 20,734 | Buttigieg | 24.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.0% |
| Washington County | 14,261 | Buttigieg | 30.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.6% |
| Cache County | 10,221 | Buttigieg | 33.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.0% |
| Summit County | 5,590 | Buttigieg | 40.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.9% |
| Tooele County | 5,464 | Ocasio-Cortez | 25.0% | Buttigieg | 21.6% |
| Iron County | 3,915 | Buttigieg | 29.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.5% |
| Box Elder County | 3,820 | Buttigieg | 27.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.8% |
| Wasatch County | 3,306 | Buttigieg | 36.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.9% |
| Uintah County | 1,773 | Buttigieg | 25.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3% |
| Sanpete County | 1,597 | Buttigieg | 26.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.3% |
| Carbon County | 1,465 | Buttigieg | 22.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.1% |
| Sevier County | 1,201 | Buttigieg | 27.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.4% |
| Grand County | 1,091 | Buttigieg | 28.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.9% |
| San Juan County | 1,078 | Ocasio-Cortez | 28.3% | Buttigieg | 23.2% |
| Duchesne County | 977 | Buttigieg | 26.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.7% |
| Morgan County | 901 | Buttigieg | 35.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.6% |
| Juab County | 725 | Buttigieg | 25.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.0% |
| Millard County | 715 | Buttigieg | 26.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.9% |
| Kane County | 664 | Buttigieg | 28.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.9% |
| Emery County | 559 | Buttigieg | 25.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.4% |
| Garfield County | 377 | Buttigieg | 27.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.1% |
| Beaver County | 372 | Buttigieg | 26.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% |
| Wayne County | 233 | Buttigieg | 29.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.4% |
| Rich County | 174 | Buttigieg | 27.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% |
| Piute County | 103 | Buttigieg | 25.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.6% |
| Daggett County | 69 | Buttigieg | 25.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.4% |