2028 forecast · Texas · President · 40 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Texas.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +2.8 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +3.6 and R +9.2. Projected votes: 5,865,706 Democratic, 6,205,692 Republican, 172,587 other, 12,243,985 in all.
28%Democratic win chance
R +2.82028 margin
R +13.92024 actual
1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +13.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +3.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | No change | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.1 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.6 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +2.8 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 11,380,105 in 2024, 12,243,985 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Texas| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| TalaricoHYP | D +2.9 | 72% |
| Ossoff | R +0.6 | 46% |
| Cuban | R +0.9 | 43% |
| CooperHYP | R +1.8 | 36% |
| GallegoHYP | R +1.8 | 36% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +2.0 | 34% |
| Harris | R +2.0 | 34% |
| Buttigieg | R +2.0 | 34% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +2.2 | 33% |
| BookerHYP | R +2.2 | 33% |
| KellyHYP | R +2.3 | 32% |
| WarnockHYP | R +2.6 | 30% |
| CrockettHYP | R +2.7 | 30% |
| KhannaHYP | R +2.7 | 29% |
| BeshearHYP | R +2.7 | 29% |
| PolisHYP | R +2.8 | 29% |
| MurphyHYP | R +2.8 | 29% |
| Generic Democrat | R +2.8 | 29% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +3.0 | 27% |
| WalzHYP | R +3.0 | 27% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +3.0 | 27% |
| BrownHYP | R +3.3 | 26% |
| MooreHYP | R +3.6 | 23% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +3.7 | 23% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +3.8 | 23% |
| Shapiro | R +3.8 | 23% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +3.8 | 22% |
| Newsom | R +4.7 | 17% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +4.8 | 17% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Texas| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | R +2.3 | 32% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +2.7 | 30% |
| Vance | R +2.8 | 29% |
| HaleyHYP | R +3.0 | 28% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +3.1 | 27% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +3.1 | 26% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.1 | 26% |
| KempHYP | R +3.1 | 26% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +3.1 | 26% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +3.3 | 25% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +3.3 | 25% |
| CruzHYP | R +4.6 | 18% |
| Rubio | R +4.7 | 17% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
254 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris County | D +5.6 | D +17.8 | D +25 to D +10 | 930,790 | 649,777 | 1,605,662 | D +0.64 | D +0.08 |
| Tarrant County | R +5.2 | D +5.6 | D +13 to R +2 | 450,923 | 402,698 | 866,576 | D +0.36 | D +0.21 |
| Dallas County | D +22.6 | D +38.3 | D +46 to D +31 | 576,890 | 257,651 | 849,122 | D +0.62 | Even |
| Bexar County | D +9.9 | D +23.5 | D +32 to D +15 | 493,530 | 305,637 | 809,945 | D +0.70 | D +0.13 |
| Travis County | D +40.1 | D +54.1 | D +62 to D +46 | 467,090 | 139,041 | 617,581 | D +0.31 | R +0.13 |
| Collin County | R +11.4 | D +3.6 | D +11 to R +4 | 301,810 | 280,977 | 596,086 | D +0.29 | D +0.95 |
| Denton County | R +13.4 | R +0.1 | D +7 to R +8 | 253,676 | 254,058 | 515,835 | D +0.25 | D +0.87 |
| Fort Bend County | D +1.6 | D +17.5 | D +25 to D +10 | 234,508 | 164,755 | 407,724 | D +0.62 | D +0.52 |
| Montgomery County | R +45.9 | R +34.5 | R +27 to R +42 | 119,291 | 244,893 | 368,396 | Even | D +2.35 |
| Williamson County | R +2.5 | D +9.4 | D +17 to D +2 | 196,716 | 162,993 | 366,104 | D +0.20 | D +0.81 |
| El Paso County | D +15.3 | D +32.1 | D +44 to D +20 | 167,232 | 86,047 | 256,925 | D +0.89 | Even |
| Hidalgo County | R +2.9 | D +10.6 | D +24 to R +3 | 126,119 | 101,935 | 230,495 | D +0.95 | D +0.23 |
| Brazoria County | R +20.0 | R +10.7 | R +3 to R +18 | 78,963 | 97,806 | 179,267 | D +0.34 | D +0.77 |
| Galveston County | R +27.7 | R +20.7 | R +14 to R +28 | 65,068 | 99,057 | 166,350 | D +0.08 | D +0.46 |
| Hays County | D +5.7 | D +17.5 | D +25 to D +10 | 91,817 | 64,459 | 158,798 | D +0.38 | D +0.63 |
| Bell County | R +16.4 | R +5.7 | D +2 to R +13 | 66,286 | 74,260 | 142,466 | D +0.37 | D +0.49 |
| Lubbock County | R +39.9 | R +29.5 | R +22 to R +37 | 47,249 | 86,803 | 135,764 | D +0.24 | D +0.51 |
| Comal County | R +46.0 | R +33.1 | R +26 to R +40 | 42,241 | 83,986 | 127,761 | R +0.07 | D +2.73 |
| Nueces County | R +11.6 | R +1.7 | D +7 to R +10 | 59,212 | 61,242 | 121,893 | D +0.52 | Even |
| Ellis County | R +31.3 | R +22.8 | R +16 to R +30 | 46,376 | 73,757 | 121,467 | D +0.17 | D +1.86 |
| Cameron County | R +5.8 | D +7.8 | D +20 to R +5 | 63,553 | 54,342 | 119,055 | D +0.92 | D +0.12 |
| Smith County | R +45.5 | R +38.2 | R +31 to R +45 | 33,850 | 75,700 | 110,736 | Even | D +0.88 |
| Parker County | R +67.0 | R +56.8 | R +50 to R +64 | 23,273 | 84,413 | 108,818 | R +0.14 | D +3.00 |
| McLennan County | R +31.2 | R +24.2 | R +17 to R +32 | 39,476 | 64,729 | 105,501 | D +0.14 | D +0.38 |
| Brazos County | R +25.2 | R +12.7 | R +5 to R +20 | 44,625 | 57,574 | 103,950 | D +0.47 | D +0.34 |
| Guadalupe County | R +29.8 | R +17.7 | R +10 to R +25 | 39,417 | 56,350 | 96,950 | D +0.21 | D +1.25 |
| Johnson County | R +51.9 | R +44.9 | R +37 to R +52 | 25,804 | 67,834 | 94,649 | R +0.07 | D +2.19 |
| Kaufman County | R +28.1 | R +19.4 | R +12 to R +27 | 34,916 | 51,759 | 87,577 | D +0.22 | D +2.00 |
| Jefferson County | R +9.0 | D +0.5 | D +8 to R +7 | 42,207 | 41,767 | 84,839 | D +0.36 | D +0.05 |
| Rockwall County | R +41.3 | R +28.1 | R +21 to R +35 | 27,730 | 49,405 | 78,066 | Even | D +2.51 |
| Grayson County | R +54.7 | R +48.7 | R +41 to R +56 | 18,338 | 53,214 | 72,296 | R +0.18 | D +1.56 |
| Randall County | R +61.0 | R +52.7 | R +46 to R +60 | 16,856 | 54,399 | 72,085 | R +0.07 | D +1.06 |
| Webb County | R +2.2 | D +14.7 | D +29 to D +1 | 38,736 | 28,788 | 68,187 | D +0.97 | D +0.10 |
| Midland County | R +61.1 | R +49.9 | R +42 to R +57 | 15,835 | 47,331 | 63,876 | D +0.17 | D +1.10 |
| Taylor County | R +50.3 | R +43.7 | R +36 to R +51 | 16,300 | 41,615 | 58,656 | Even | D +0.49 |
| Hunt County | R +55.9 | R +48.4 | R +41 to R +56 | 14,185 | 40,785 | 55,525 | R +0.08 | D +2.53 |
| Gregg County | R +42.6 | R +37.4 | R +30 to R +45 | 14,651 | 32,157 | 47,287 | Even | D +0.17 |
| Bastrop County | R +18.6 | R +9.2 | R +2 to R +17 | 20,940 | 25,207 | 46,820 | D +0.12 | D +1.30 |
| Tom Green County | R +48.5 | R +42.0 | R +35 to R +50 | 13,169 | 32,268 | 45,995 | Even | D +0.09 |
| Wise County | R +70.5 | R +61.6 | R +54 to R +69 | 8,588 | 36,090 | 45,060 | R +0.11 | D +2.86 |
| Wichita County | R +44.4 | R +39.3 | R +32 to R +47 | 13,514 | 31,035 | 45,103 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Ector County | R +53.3 | R +43.7 | R +35 to R +52 | 12,379 | 31,563 | 44,368 | D +0.36 | D +0.38 |
| Henderson County | R +63.9 | R +61.1 | R +54 to R +69 | 7,740 | 32,011 | 40,070 | R +0.23 | D +1.19 |
| Hood County | R +66.5 | R +61.3 | R +54 to R +69 | 7,578 | 31,618 | 39,591 | R +0.27 | D +2.03 |
| Liberty County | R +61.8 | R +53.4 | R +45 to R +61 | 9,048 | 29,749 | 39,048 | D +0.06 | D +3.31 |
| Orange County | R +67.1 | R +64.7 | R +57 to R +72 | 6,421 | 29,930 | 36,635 | R +0.16 | D +0.27 |
| Bowie County | R +49.0 | R +43.4 | R +36 to R +51 | 10,188 | 25,814 | 36,301 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Victoria County | R +42.9 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 11,473 | 23,921 | 35,725 | D +0.16 | D +0.20 |
| Angelina County | R +52.4 | R +47.9 | R +40 to R +55 | 8,991 | 25,538 | 34,826 | R +0.05 | D +0.27 |
| Waller County | R +25.3 | R +15.5 | R +8 to R +23 | 14,232 | 19,449 | 34,073 | D +0.55 | D +1.48 |
| Kendall County | R +56.2 | R +43.5 | R +36 to R +51 | 9,432 | 23,939 | 33,744 | R +0.12 | D +2.27 |
| Harrison County | R +50.9 | R +47.0 | R +40 to R +55 | 8,221 | 22,824 | 31,312 | Even | D +0.57 |
| Burnet County | R +56.2 | R +50.4 | R +43 to R +58 | 7,609 | 23,044 | 30,982 | R +0.23 | D +1.91 |
| Potter County | R +44.9 | R +37.5 | R +30 to R +45 | 9,510 | 20,933 | 30,834 | D +0.09 | D +0.14 |
| Chambers County | R +66.1 | R +55.6 | R +48 to R +63 | 6,637 | 23,282 | 30,231 | Even | D +2.85 |
| Wilson County | R +54.0 | R +43.1 | R +35 to R +51 | 8,440 | 21,236 | 29,892 | Even | D +1.45 |
| Van Zandt County | R +75.2 | R +71.5 | R +64 to R +79 | 4,225 | 25,435 | 29,869 | R +0.19 | D +1.76 |
| Hardin County | R +76.1 | R +72.4 | R +65 to R +80 | 3,967 | 24,832 | 28,992 | R +0.15 | D +0.75 |
| Kerr County | R +54.8 | R +50.9 | R +44 to R +58 | 6,778 | 20,852 | 27,915 | R +0.25 | D +0.52 |
| Walker County | R +40.3 | R +33.2 | R +26 to R +41 | 9,184 | 18,318 | 27,793 | D +0.20 | D +0.89 |
| Medina County | R +43.1 | R +31.6 | R +24 to R +40 | 9,148 | 17,609 | 27,015 | D +0.23 | D +1.20 |
| Nacogdoches County | R +39.1 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +41 | 8,851 | 17,781 | 26,921 | D +0.15 | D +0.22 |
| San Patricio County | R +36.7 | R +27.9 | R +20 to R +36 | 9,382 | 16,648 | 26,308 | D +0.24 | D +0.39 |
| Wood County | R +70.1 | R +68.6 | R +61 to R +76 | 3,975 | 21,352 | 25,523 | R +0.26 | D +1.69 |
| Polk County | R +59.3 | R +54.5 | R +47 to R +62 | 5,669 | 19,260 | 25,139 | R +0.19 | D +0.92 |
| Coryell County | R +41.1 | R +33.6 | R +26 to R +41 | 8,273 | 16,649 | 25,263 | D +0.14 | D +0.25 |
| Rusk County | R +59.8 | R +54.6 | R +47 to R +62 | 5,054 | 17,227 | 22,461 | R +0.06 | D +0.70 |
| Lamar County | R +61.4 | R +59.1 | R +52 to R +67 | 4,352 | 16,918 | 21,433 | R +0.17 | D +0.48 |
| Cooke County | R +67.4 | R +62.9 | R +56 to R +70 | 3,931 | 17,287 | 21,409 | R +0.16 | D +0.98 |
| Cherokee County | R +63.2 | R +57.1 | R +50 to R +65 | 4,503 | 16,499 | 21,199 | R +0.09 | D +0.83 |
| Navarro County | R +52.2 | R +45.4 | R +38 to R +53 | 5,727 | 15,245 | 21,163 | Even | D +1.04 |
| Upshur County | R +71.5 | R +67.4 | R +60 to R +75 | 3,400 | 17,459 | 21,031 | R +0.16 | D +1.31 |
| Atascosa County | R +43.7 | R +30.8 | R +22 to R +40 | 6,824 | 12,911 | 19,931 | D +0.37 | D +0.96 |
| Anderson County | R +62.2 | R +56.6 | R +49 to R +64 | 4,244 | 15,333 | 19,737 | Even | D +0.43 |
| Erath County | R +68.5 | R +62.5 | R +55 to R +70 | 3,665 | 15,897 | 19,755 | Even | D +0.47 |
| Washington County | R +55.1 | R +50.9 | R +44 to R +58 | 4,641 | 14,250 | 19,069 | R +0.07 | D +0.93 |
| Caldwell County | R +14.6 | R +3.7 | D +4 to R +12 | 8,641 | 9,299 | 18,192 | D +0.32 | D +1.08 |
| Hill County | R +64.8 | R +61.8 | R +54 to R +69 | 3,355 | 14,224 | 17,733 | R +0.18 | D +1.43 |
| Fannin County | R +67.9 | R +64.1 | R +57 to R +72 | 3,109 | 14,218 | 17,497 | R +0.16 | D +1.39 |
| Hopkins County | R +65.0 | R +61.4 | R +54 to R +69 | 3,324 | 13,917 | 17,381 | R +0.16 | D +0.89 |
| Starr County | R +16.1 | R +4.5 | D +11 to R +20 | 7,997 | 8,743 | 16,855 | D +0.95 | D +0.05 |
| Brown County | R +74.5 | R +71.0 | R +64 to R +79 | 2,415 | 14,257 | 16,825 | R +0.15 | D +0.38 |
| Gillespie County | R +61.4 | R +56.8 | R +50 to R +64 | 3,554 | 12,909 | 16,618 | R +0.29 | D +1.01 |
| Wharton County | R +52.2 | R +43.7 | R +36 to R +51 | 4,617 | 11,781 | 16,533 | D +0.11 | D +0.20 |
| Austin County | R +63.1 | R +54.3 | R +47 to R +62 | 3,724 | 12,590 | 16,460 | R +0.10 | D +1.52 |
| Maverick County | R +18.6 | R +4.0 | D +10 to R +19 | 7,678 | 8,317 | 16,124 | D +0.94 | D +0.09 |
| Grimes County | R +60.7 | R +53.0 | R +45 to R +61 | 3,681 | 11,970 | 15,807 | R +0.05 | D +2.09 |
| Jasper County | R +66.9 | R +65.8 | R +58 to R +74 | 2,647 | 12,836 | 15,576 | R +0.17 | D +0.18 |
| Val Verde County | R +26.9 | R +13.2 | R +2 to R +24 | 6,368 | 8,297 | 14,843 | D +0.95 | D +0.06 |
| Bandera County | R +62.4 | R +55.8 | R +48 to R +63 | 3,072 | 10,815 | 14,036 | R +0.26 | D +1.44 |
| Palo Pinto County | R +67.6 | R +64.4 | R +57 to R +72 | 2,466 | 11,398 | 13,991 | R +0.20 | D +1.26 |
| Cass County | R +65.9 | R +63.8 | R +56 to R +71 | 2,500 | 11,324 | 13,900 | R +0.19 | D +0.26 |
| Llano County | R +61.3 | R +60.6 | R +53 to R +68 | 2,689 | 10,952 | 13,770 | R +0.39 | D +1.48 |
| Aransas County | R +56.2 | R +51.1 | R +44 to R +59 | 3,278 | 10,139 | 13,551 | R +0.26 | D +1.34 |
| Fayette County | R +61.9 | R +57.9 | R +51 to R +65 | 2,777 | 10,428 | 13,332 | R +0.24 | D +0.72 |
| Jim Wells County | R +15.6 | R +7.2 | D +4 to R +18 | 6,113 | 7,066 | 13,266 | D +0.80 | Even |
| San Jacinto County | R +65.7 | R +62.2 | R +55 to R +70 | 2,489 | 10,678 | 13,284 | R +0.18 | D +1.16 |
| Matagorda County | R +51.0 | R +44.4 | R +37 to R +52 | 3,606 | 9,367 | 13,107 | D +0.11 | D +0.13 |
| Lampasas County | R +60.1 | R +54.3 | R +47 to R +62 | 2,693 | 9,088 | 11,916 | R +0.18 | D +1.26 |
| Montague County | R +78.1 | R +74.8 | R +67 to R +82 | 1,469 | 10,176 | 11,738 | R +0.19 | D +1.63 |
| Panola County | R +66.6 | R +65.1 | R +58 to R +73 | 2,005 | 9,492 | 11,557 | R +0.14 | D +0.44 |
| Milam County | R +57.7 | R +54.1 | R +47 to R +62 | 2,598 | 8,718 | 11,413 | R +0.16 | D +0.89 |
| Lavaca County | R +76.4 | R +73.5 | R +66 to R +81 | 1,371 | 8,971 | 10,400 | R +0.15 | D +0.44 |
| Kleberg County | R +12.8 | R +2.6 | D +7 to R +13 | 4,986 | 5,256 | 10,338 | D +1.10 | Even |
| Burleson County | R +63.3 | R +55.8 | R +48 to R +63 | 2,244 | 7,910 | 10,244 | R +0.14 | D +2.10 |
| Titus County | R +55.1 | R +48.1 | R +40 to R +56 | 2,633 | 7,520 | 10,246 | D +0.09 | D +0.10 |
| Colorado County | R +57.6 | R +52.1 | R +45 to R +60 | 2,380 | 7,566 | 10,026 | R +0.06 | D +0.58 |
| Uvalde County | R +33.6 | R +22.7 | R +13 to R +33 | 3,834 | 6,083 | 10,008 | D +0.68 | D +0.14 |
| Shelby County | R +64.8 | R +60.1 | R +52 to R +68 | 1,964 | 7,889 | 9,912 | R +0.08 | D +0.20 |
| Tyler County | R +73.8 | R +73.6 | R +66 to R +82 | 1,268 | 8,326 | 9,654 | R +0.16 | D +0.66 |
| Bosque County | R +67.9 | R +64.6 | R +57 to R +72 | 1,679 | 7,816 | 9,587 | R +0.25 | D +0.74 |
| Blanco County | R +53.1 | R +44.6 | R +37 to R +52 | 2,620 | 6,846 | 9,586 | R +0.26 | D +2.18 |
| Freestone County | R +66.7 | R +63.3 | R +56 to R +71 | 1,709 | 7,614 | 9,392 | R +0.10 | D +1.07 |
| Leon County | R +77.1 | R +74.4 | R +67 to R +82 | 1,191 | 8,110 | 9,364 | R +0.14 | D +1.28 |
| Bee County | R +40.2 | R +30.4 | R +22 to R +39 | 3,209 | 6,016 | 9,322 | D +0.48 | D +0.45 |
| Houston County | R +55.6 | R +51.7 | R +44 to R +59 | 2,201 | 6,905 | 9,169 | R +0.12 | D +0.27 |
| Hale County | R +58.6 | R +48.4 | R +40 to R +57 | 2,343 | 6,733 | 9,185 | D +0.25 | D +0.08 |
| Limestone County | R +57.3 | R +51.8 | R +44 to R +59 | 2,167 | 6,822 | 9,069 | R +0.06 | D +0.47 |
| Lee County | R +60.8 | R +55.8 | R +48 to R +63 | 1,930 | 6,802 | 8,803 | R +0.11 | D +1.01 |
| Howard County | R +63.3 | R +54.8 | R +47 to R +63 | 1,928 | 6,601 | 8,608 | D +0.07 | D +0.14 |
| Robertson County | R +52.5 | R +44.7 | R +37 to R +52 | 2,319 | 6,066 | 8,454 | Even | D +0.87 |
| Eastland County | R +77.9 | R +77.0 | R +70 to R +85 | 955 | 7,373 | 8,392 | R +0.16 | D +0.49 |
| Young County | R +76.7 | R +73.5 | R +66 to R +81 | 1,076 | 7,056 | 8,200 | R +0.16 | D +0.31 |
| Hockley County | R +66.7 | R +57.1 | R +49 to R +65 | 1,717 | 6,283 | 8,068 | D +0.08 | D +0.08 |
| Hutchinson County | R +77.7 | R +75.7 | R +68 to R +84 | 949 | 6,876 | 7,897 | R +0.11 | Even |
| DeWitt County | R +67.4 | R +60.0 | R +53 to R +68 | 1,551 | 6,213 | 7,819 | R +0.06 | D +0.44 |
| Gonzales County | R +55.1 | R +46.6 | R +39 to R +55 | 2,063 | 5,672 | 7,798 | D +0.09 | D +0.37 |
| Calhoun County | R +52.4 | R +46.4 | R +39 to R +54 | 2,005 | 5,471 | 7,534 | D +0.09 | D +0.08 |
| Trinity County | R +67.4 | R +66.2 | R +58 to R +74 | 1,250 | 6,151 | 7,453 | R +0.26 | D +1.02 |
| Gray County | R +77.6 | R +74.9 | R +67 to R +83 | 923 | 6,444 | 7,428 | R +0.07 | D +0.10 |
| Jones County | R +73.7 | R +66.9 | R +59 to R +75 | 1,198 | 6,048 | 7,316 | Even | D +0.96 |
| Callahan County | R +78.1 | R +75.5 | R +68 to R +83 | 873 | 6,261 | 7,195 | R +0.17 | D +1.03 |
| Gaines County | R +83.1 | R +76.8 | R +69 to R +85 | 806 | 6,150 | 7,012 | Even | D +1.51 |
| Rains County | R +73.3 | R +71.3 | R +64 to R +79 | 986 | 5,896 | 6,934 | R +0.22 | D +1.79 |
| Comanche County | R +74.4 | R +72.2 | R +65 to R +80 | 920 | 5,702 | 6,669 | R +0.17 | D +1.10 |
| Falls County | R +45.0 | R +39.1 | R +32 to R +47 | 1,950 | 4,450 | 6,455 | Even | D +0.64 |
| Jackson County | R +71.2 | R +65.3 | R +58 to R +73 | 1,090 | 5,185 | 6,325 | R +0.08 | D +0.48 |
| Andrews County | R +73.2 | R +64.5 | R +56 to R +73 | 1,095 | 5,068 | 6,225 | D +0.15 | D +0.10 |
| Clay County | R +80.1 | R +76.6 | R +69 to R +84 | 697 | 5,277 | 6,020 | R +0.17 | D +1.02 |
| Madison County | R +64.7 | R +57.6 | R +50 to R +65 | 1,219 | 4,533 | 5,790 | D +0.07 | D +0.75 |
| Red River County | R +61.9 | R +61.6 | R +54 to R +69 | 1,082 | 4,557 | 5,667 | R +0.24 | D +0.45 |
| Somervell County | R +71.4 | R +64.5 | R +57 to R +72 | 998 | 4,628 | 5,684 | R +0.15 | D +1.66 |
| Willacy County | R +3.3 | D +6.2 | D +18 to R +6 | 2,961 | 2,616 | 5,620 | D +0.93 | Even |
| Newton County | R +66.8 | R +68.8 | R +61 to R +77 | 853 | 4,626 | 5,509 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Scurry County | R +74.2 | R +68.4 | R +60 to R +76 | 863 | 4,593 | 5,505 | Even | D +0.09 |
| Camp County | R +53.9 | R +47.9 | R +41 to R +55 | 1,416 | 4,024 | 5,481 | Even | D +0.92 |
| Franklin County | R +69.2 | R +67.1 | R +60 to R +74 | 886 | 4,494 | 5,418 | R +0.21 | D +0.95 |
| Morris County | R +51.4 | R +50.1 | R +42 to R +58 | 1,331 | 3,999 | 5,369 | R +0.11 | D +0.25 |
| Sabine County | R +78.8 | R +80.2 | R +72 to R +88 | 527 | 4,784 | 5,340 | R +0.23 | D +0.50 |
| Archer County | R +79.7 | R +77.0 | R +70 to R +85 | 606 | 4,675 | 5,316 | R +0.16 | D +1.17 |
| Moore County | R +67.7 | R +56.5 | R +48 to R +65 | 1,141 | 4,105 | 5,300 | D +0.25 | D +0.53 |
| Live Oak County | R +70.0 | R +64.3 | R +57 to R +72 | 924 | 4,260 | 5,219 | D +0.07 | D +0.73 |
| Karnes County | R +58.4 | R +49.3 | R +41 to R +57 | 1,290 | 3,798 | 5,123 | D +0.22 | D +0.15 |
| Frio County | R +24.7 | R +10.4 | D +0 to R +21 | 2,224 | 2,739 | 4,998 | D +0.94 | D +0.19 |
| Zapata County | R +22.6 | R +9.4 | D +5 to R +24 | 2,192 | 2,648 | 4,871 | D +0.91 | D +0.05 |
| Nolan County | R +59.7 | R +56.5 | R +49 to R +64 | 1,050 | 3,777 | 4,879 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Jack County | R +82.6 | R +78.9 | R +71 to R +87 | 485 | 4,123 | 4,638 | R +0.08 | D +2.02 |
| Marion County | R +52.9 | R +51.9 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,089 | 3,439 | 4,569 | R +0.24 | D +0.27 |
| Hamilton County | R +71.8 | R +68.6 | R +61 to R +76 | 703 | 3,775 | 4,519 | R +0.24 | D +0.92 |
| Brewster County | R +12.8 | R +7.3 | D +1 to R +15 | 2,033 | 2,352 | 4,456 | D +0.09 | D +0.08 |
| Duval County | R +9.8 | R +2.8 | D +9 to R +15 | 2,128 | 2,252 | 4,407 | D +0.98 | Even |
| Deaf Smith County | R +52.1 | R +39.8 | R +30 to R +49 | 1,280 | 2,971 | 4,292 | D +0.46 | D +0.13 |
| Wilbarger County | R +61.1 | R +58.3 | R +51 to R +66 | 885 | 3,363 | 4,291 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Coleman County | R +79.3 | R +78.0 | R +70 to R +86 | 449 | 3,642 | 4,116 | R +0.18 | D +0.72 |
| Pecos County | R +45.3 | R +34.9 | R +26 to R +45 | 1,309 | 2,714 | 4,074 | D +0.47 | D +0.06 |
| Goliad County | R +60.7 | R +56.6 | R +49 to R +64 | 870 | 3,140 | 4,045 | R +0.06 | D +0.51 |
| Lamb County | R +64.7 | R +56.4 | R +48 to R +65 | 854 | 3,069 | 3,955 | D +0.12 | D +0.17 |
| Runnels County | R +77.6 | R +73.1 | R +66 to R +81 | 523 | 3,365 | 3,919 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Stephens County | R +79.5 | R +77.9 | R +70 to R +86 | 420 | 3,392 | 3,832 | R +0.11 | D +0.69 |
| Ward County | R +66.5 | R +57.4 | R +49 to R +66 | 766 | 2,832 | 3,629 | D +0.15 | Even |
| San Augustine County | R +56.6 | R +57.0 | R +49 to R +65 | 752 | 2,752 | 3,527 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Dawson County | R +61.6 | R +53.8 | R +46 to R +62 | 779 | 2,590 | 3,404 | D +0.25 | Even |
| Zavala County | D +14.5 | D +22.1 | D +36 to D +8 | 2,055 | 1,312 | 3,395 | D +0.99 | Even |
| McCulloch County | R +73.9 | R +71.2 | R +64 to R +79 | 480 | 2,860 | 3,369 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Terry County | R +65.5 | R +57.1 | R +49 to R +65 | 711 | 2,601 | 3,337 | D +0.09 | D +0.12 |
| Dimmit County | D +3.3 | D +15.7 | D +28 to D +3 | 1,899 | 1,384 | 3,301 | D +0.88 | Even |
| Carson County | R +81.6 | R +77.5 | R +70 to R +85 | 354 | 2,789 | 3,168 | R +0.13 | D +0.14 |
| Reeves County | R +37.2 | R +24.7 | R +13 to R +37 | 1,125 | 1,865 | 3,021 | D +0.84 | D +0.13 |
| Refugio County | R +39.8 | R +35.6 | R +27 to R +44 | 961 | 2,024 | 3,012 | D +0.21 | Even |
| Ochiltree County | R +82.0 | R +72.0 | R +64 to R +80 | 385 | 2,363 | 2,770 | D +0.06 | D +0.42 |
| Delta County | R +70.0 | R +69.5 | R +62 to R +77 | 415 | 2,308 | 2,741 | R +0.19 | D +1.01 |
| Mills County | R +77.3 | R +77.0 | R +70 to R +84 | 311 | 2,399 | 2,728 | R +0.17 | D +0.63 |
| Lynn County | R +70.9 | R +58.5 | R +51 to R +66 | 560 | 2,136 | 2,720 | Even | D +1.12 |
| San Saba County | R +79.5 | R +77.2 | R +70 to R +85 | 306 | 2,377 | 2,701 | R +0.08 | D +0.29 |
| Mitchell County | R +71.8 | R +67.7 | R +60 to R +76 | 405 | 2,103 | 2,528 | D +0.06 | D +0.05 |
| Mason County | R +65.4 | R +62.2 | R +55 to R +70 | 455 | 1,956 | 2,431 | R +0.30 | D +0.46 |
| Parmer County | R +70.5 | R +63.5 | R +55 to R +72 | 433 | 1,946 | 2,396 | D +0.12 | D +0.28 |
| Kimble County | R +78.1 | R +72.8 | R +66 to R +80 | 321 | 2,040 | 2,380 | R +0.19 | D +0.90 |
| La Salle County | R +20.6 | R +13.0 | R +3 to R +23 | 1,019 | 1,323 | 2,358 | D +0.95 | D +0.06 |
| Yoakum County | R +71.3 | R +62.0 | R +54 to R +70 | 434 | 1,854 | 2,307 | D +0.21 | D +0.27 |
| Childress County | R +76.7 | R +70.6 | R +63 to R +79 | 333 | 1,935 | 2,288 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Haskell County | R +71.9 | R +70.9 | R +64 to R +78 | 322 | 1,889 | 2,230 | R +0.17 | D +0.37 |
| Brooks County | D +9.7 | D +15.7 | D +29 to D +3 | 1,262 | 919 | 2,199 | D +0.64 | Even |
| Swisher County | R +64.1 | R +57.5 | R +50 to R +65 | 458 | 1,702 | 2,184 | D +0.11 | D +0.09 |
| Wheeler County | R +85.1 | R +83.7 | R +76 to R +91 | 171 | 1,937 | 2,120 | R +0.11 | D +0.15 |
| Martin County | R +76.2 | R +64.1 | R +56 to R +72 | 369 | 1,687 | 2,070 | D +0.08 | D +0.18 |
| Castro County | R +58.4 | R +52.3 | R +44 to R +61 | 461 | 1,470 | 1,944 | D +0.22 | D +0.27 |
| Hansford County | R +85.3 | R +75.8 | R +68 to R +83 | 228 | 1,659 | 1,902 | Even | D +0.14 |
| Floyd County | R +65.5 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +64 | 421 | 1,465 | 1,903 | D +0.09 | D +0.05 |
| Hartley County | R +83.7 | R +73.5 | R +66 to R +81 | 243 | 1,597 | 1,853 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Real County | R +67.5 | R +69.1 | R +61 to R +77 | 282 | 1,543 | 1,843 | R +0.33 | D +0.34 |
| Winkler County | R +70.7 | R +61.3 | R +53 to R +70 | 352 | 1,471 | 1,833 | D +0.13 | D +0.34 |
| Fisher County | R +63.7 | R +62.3 | R +55 to R +70 | 338 | 1,455 | 1,809 | R +0.11 | D +0.18 |
| Coke County | R +80.1 | R +78.2 | R +71 to R +86 | 194 | 1,591 | 1,798 | R +0.18 | D +0.79 |
| Crosby County | R +51.7 | R +44.0 | R +36 to R +52 | 493 | 1,270 | 1,780 | D +0.12 | D +0.05 |
| Presidio County | D +30.5 | D +39.5 | D +51 to D +28 | 1,223 | 530 | 1,774 | D +0.58 | Even |
| Shackelford County | R +82.9 | R +79.2 | R +72 to R +86 | 180 | 1,557 | 1,753 | R +0.12 | D +0.60 |
| Donley County | R +79.4 | R +79.4 | R +72 to R +87 | 172 | 1,502 | 1,697 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Bailey County | R +61.6 | R +53.5 | R +45 to R +62 | 388 | 1,283 | 1,686 | D +0.19 | D +0.47 |
| Jim Hogg County | D +8.3 | D +17.6 | D +31 to D +4 | 935 | 654 | 1,598 | D +1.12 | Even |
| Baylor County | R +77.8 | R +79.4 | R +72 to R +87 | 162 | 1,416 | 1,594 | R +0.21 | D +0.27 |
| Hemphill County | R +76.3 | R +71.7 | R +64 to R +79 | 206 | 1,252 | 1,471 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Dallam County | R +78.8 | R +70.4 | R +63 to R +78 | 209 | 1,209 | 1,431 | Even | D +0.78 |
| Garza County | R +73.2 | R +64.3 | R +56 to R +72 | 249 | 1,148 | 1,408 | D +0.21 | D +0.29 |
| Crane County | R +73.1 | R +60.3 | R +51 to R +70 | 269 | 1,087 | 1,365 | D +0.30 | Even |
| Kinney County | R +50.9 | R +46.2 | R +37 to R +55 | 365 | 991 | 1,367 | D +0.17 | D +0.22 |
| Sutton County | R +67.3 | R +54.2 | R +45 to R +63 | 301 | 1,013 | 1,322 | D +0.25 | D +0.13 |
| Knox County | R +68.8 | R +63.9 | R +56 to R +72 | 231 | 1,049 | 1,288 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Hardeman County | R +73.1 | R +72.5 | R +65 to R +80 | 175 | 1,101 | 1,285 | R +0.12 | D +0.12 |
| Crockett County | R +54.2 | R +44.5 | R +35 to R +55 | 353 | 921 | 1,283 | D +0.24 | R +0.06 |
| Upton County | R +77.5 | R +71.9 | R +63 to R +81 | 170 | 1,042 | 1,223 | Even | Even |
| Lipscomb County | R +80.3 | R +76.8 | R +69 to R +84 | 137 | 1,051 | 1,199 | Even | D +0.21 |
| Concho County | R +74.3 | R +66.9 | R +59 to R +75 | 195 | 984 | 1,189 | R +0.09 | D +0.84 |
| Collingsworth County | R +77.5 | R +73.5 | R +66 to R +81 | 146 | 958 | 1,109 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Armstrong County | R +86.1 | R +83.4 | R +76 to R +91 | 90 | 1,002 | 1,097 | R +0.11 | D +0.14 |
| Hall County | R +73.9 | R +69.9 | R +62 to R +77 | 159 | 902 | 1,069 | R +0.09 | D +0.22 |
| Hudspeth County | R +46.8 | R +32.5 | R +23 to R +43 | 355 | 698 | 1,061 | D +0.71 | D +0.60 |
| Edwards County | R +73.5 | R +65.0 | R +57 to R +74 | 181 | 854 | 1,040 | D +0.39 | Even |
| Schleicher County | R +65.0 | R +57.6 | R +49 to R +66 | 213 | 793 | 1,015 | D +0.05 | Even |
| Oldham County | R +84.7 | R +75.1 | R +68 to R +83 | 121 | 849 | 977 | Even | D +0.25 |
| Menard County | R +67.0 | R +63.5 | R +56 to R +71 | 175 | 786 | 970 | R +0.30 | D +0.30 |
| Jeff Davis County | R +21.7 | R +19.0 | R +12 to R +27 | 388 | 571 | 975 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Dickens County | R +70.5 | R +68.8 | R +61 to R +77 | 143 | 779 | 927 | R +0.16 | D +0.06 |
| Throckmorton County | R +83.7 | R +84.1 | R +77 to R +92 | 73 | 848 | 927 | R +0.16 | D +1.41 |
| Reagan County | R +70.0 | R +57.5 | R +48 to R +67 | 189 | 700 | 897 | D +0.37 | D +0.19 |
| Sherman County | R +88.9 | R +78.5 | R +71 to R +86 | 92 | 767 | 867 | Even | D +0.29 |
| Cochran County | R +66.5 | R +56.3 | R +48 to R +65 | 186 | 667 | 863 | D +0.19 | D +0.41 |
| Irion County | R +75.8 | R +65.9 | R +59 to R +73 | 142 | 693 | 839 | R +0.06 | Even |
| Culberson County | R +17.1 | R +10.9 | Even to R +22 | 333 | 415 | 758 | D +0.46 | D +0.37 |
| Briscoe County | R +80.5 | R +76.5 | R +69 to R +84 | 85 | 645 | 737 | R +0.12 | D +0.60 |
| Glasscock County | R +88.5 | R +77.5 | R +70 to R +85 | 74 | 592 | 669 | Even | D +0.10 |
| Stonewall County | R +69.2 | R +72.5 | R +65 to R +80 | 91 | 570 | 664 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Sterling County | R +86.3 | R +81.8 | R +74 to R +89 | 57 | 572 | 633 | Even | Even |
| Motley County | R +89.2 | R +86.1 | R +79 to R +94 | 43 | 580 | 626 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Cottle County | R +72.8 | R +65.6 | R +58 to R +73 | 101 | 489 | 594 | D +0.06 | Even |
| Roberts County | R +92.9 | R +89.2 | R +82 to R +97 | 31 | 555 | 589 | R +0.05 | D +0.83 |
| Foard County | R +65.9 | R +67.1 | R +60 to R +75 | 83 | 422 | 510 | R +0.30 | Even |
| McMullen County | R +84.7 | R +62.9 | R +53 to R +73 | 84 | 371 | 457 | D +0.21 | Even |
| Kent County | R +77.3 | R +79.6 | R +72 to R +87 | 39 | 343 | 386 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Borden County | R +91.7 | R +90.8 | R +84 to R +98 | 16 | 341 | 358 | R +0.06 | Even |
| Terrell County | R +55.1 | R +51.2 | R +43 to R +59 | 85 | 264 | 350 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Kenedy County | R +47.4 | R +28.4 | R +14 to R +43 | 47 | 86 | 134 | D +0.16 | D +0.21 |
| King County | R +91.1 | R +87.3 | R +80 to R +95 | 7 | 107 | 114 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Loving County | R +79.2 | R +84.1 | R +75 to R +93 | 5 | 68 | 73 | R +0.24 | Even |