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2028 forecast · Texas · Democratic primary

Texas Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 82% of runs
31.9%Harris's projected share
2,554,643Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris31.9%813,87982%20.6%
Buttigieg14.0%357,6742%5.7%
Newsom12.7%323,8547%9.1%
Ocasio-Cortez11.8%300,1032%7.0%
Ossoff10.5%267,9926%8.6%
Kelly4.1%104,1821%5.9%
Shapiro2.5%63,620<1%3.7%
Beshear0.8%19,274<1%2.4%
Whitmer0.6%15,368<1%0.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Texas votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
HarrisButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Texas
Progressive33%
Working class and union19%
Institutional17%
Democratic leaning independents15%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents4%

Black 21.1%, Hispanic 25.4%, Asian and other 4.7%, under 30 13.8%, 65 and up 26.1%, college graduates 45.8%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 2,094,428 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,554,643 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Harris County426,037Harris42.5%Ossoff11.2%
Dallas County246,413Harris43.7%Ossoff12.4%
Bexar County199,650Harris26.7%Ocasio-Cortez14.8%
Tarrant County195,444Harris35.6%Ossoff12.0%
Travis County145,509Buttigieg23.5%Ocasio-Cortez20.3%
Collin County110,341Buttigieg23.6%Harris20.0%
Fort Bend County97,107Harris41.7%Newsom11.4%
Denton County95,268Harris21.7%Buttigieg21.0%
El Paso County75,360Harris24.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.3%
Williamson County65,807Buttigieg23.5%Harris18.0%
Hidalgo County61,718Harris25.0%Newsom15.7%
Montgomery County51,428Harris21.7%Buttigieg21.6%
Brazoria County36,678Harris41.7%Newsom11.2%
Galveston County31,749Harris31.8%Buttigieg15.3%
Cameron County31,686Harris25.1%Newsom16.0%
Bell County30,334Harris47.0%Ossoff11.7%
Hays County27,778Ocasio-Cortez21.5%Buttigieg20.8%
Nueces County27,676Harris27.2%Newsom15.0%
Jefferson County22,637Harris64.8%Ossoff7.7%
Lubbock County22,207Harris21.3%Buttigieg18.0%
Ellis County20,157Harris36.6%Buttigieg12.0%
Webb County19,710Harris24.4%Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
McLennan County19,203Harris32.1%Buttigieg13.7%
Smith County18,787Harris40.7%Buttigieg11.6%
Brazos County18,323Ocasio-Cortez23.3%Harris17.4%
Guadalupe County16,983Harris28.8%Buttigieg14.4%
Comal County16,917Buttigieg24.9%Harris16.2%
Kaufman County14,540Harris43.0%Ossoff10.6%
Johnson County12,190Harris24.8%Buttigieg18.8%
Parker County11,326Buttigieg26.6%Harris17.4%
Rockwall County11,137Harris23.2%Buttigieg21.3%
Grayson County9,403Harris24.0%Buttigieg20.0%
Midland County9,268Harris26.3%Buttigieg16.4%
Randall County9,192Buttigieg24.0%Harris18.7%
Taylor County8,736Harris24.4%Buttigieg18.3%
Gregg County8,533Harris43.1%Buttigieg10.4%
Bastrop County8,037Harris25.3%Buttigieg15.7%
Wichita County7,307Harris28.9%Buttigieg16.5%
Ector County7,269Harris29.9%Newsom13.6%
Tom Green County7,235Harris23.4%Buttigieg18.5%
Hunt County6,916Harris28.7%Buttigieg16.8%
Bowie County6,680Harris52.0%Ossoff8.8%
Victoria County6,230Harris30.8%Buttigieg14.0%
Waller County6,080Harris37.2%Ossoff13.7%
Potter County5,604Harris36.0%Buttigieg12.5%
Angelina County5,537Harris37.6%Buttigieg12.2%
Harrison County5,282Harris46.4%Ossoff9.6%
Henderson County4,988Harris26.0%Buttigieg19.8%
Walker County4,810Harris42.2%Ossoff11.3%
Nacogdoches County4,700Harris32.5%Buttigieg13.1%
Starr County4,668Harris25.9%Newsom15.2%
Orange County4,644Harris30.5%Buttigieg16.4%
San Patricio County4,638Harris25.6%Buttigieg15.0%
Liberty County4,585Harris35.4%Buttigieg11.8%
Wise County4,578Buttigieg21.9%Harris20.5%
Hood County4,501Buttigieg28.4%Harris18.1%
Medina County4,357Harris25.1%Buttigieg15.3%
Maverick County4,319Harris25.8%Newsom15.2%
Kendall County4,298Buttigieg31.1%Newsom14.7%
Wilson County4,212Harris23.0%Buttigieg17.8%
Coryell County4,169Harris35.4%Buttigieg11.8%
Kerr County4,007Buttigieg24.8%Harris19.9%
Burnet County3,884Buttigieg24.8%Harris19.0%
Chambers County3,504Harris30.1%Buttigieg14.6%
Polk County3,410Harris31.3%Buttigieg16.0%
Val Verde County3,383Harris24.7%Newsom15.4%
Rusk County3,359Harris43.5%Buttigieg10.4%
Caldwell County3,329Harris26.6%Newsom14.3%
Atascosa County3,303Harris24.6%Newsom15.1%
Hardin County3,202Harris25.8%Buttigieg19.5%
Navarro County3,193Harris34.9%Buttigieg13.1%
Jim Wells County3,167Harris26.0%Newsom15.2%
Van Zandt County3,121Harris23.2%Buttigieg21.7%
Anderson County3,119Harris49.9%Ossoff9.4%
Cherokee County3,100Harris42.3%Buttigieg10.9%
Lamar County3,067Harris35.5%Buttigieg14.0%
Washington County2,929Harris34.1%Buttigieg15.0%
Wharton County2,906Harris41.1%Newsom11.3%
Wood County2,886Harris24.8%Buttigieg21.1%
Cooke County2,531Buttigieg23.1%Harris20.3%
Upshur County2,449Harris30.3%Buttigieg16.6%
Kleberg County2,355Ocasio-Cortez20.5%Harris20.4%
Matagorda County2,336Harris38.2%Newsom12.0%
Erath County2,279Buttigieg24.9%Ocasio-Cortez18.7%
Hopkins County2,239Harris27.2%Buttigieg18.1%
Austin County2,237Harris31.3%Buttigieg16.0%
Hill County2,203Harris28.7%Buttigieg17.2%
Gillespie County2,182Buttigieg30.1%Harris16.4%
Jasper County2,178Harris42.2%Buttigieg11.1%
Grimes County2,137Harris37.7%Buttigieg12.5%
Fannin County2,089Harris27.7%Buttigieg18.0%
Cass County2,037Harris44.4%Buttigieg10.3%
Brown County1,967Harris24.1%Buttigieg20.3%
Uvalde County1,961Harris22.9%Ocasio-Cortez15.6%
Fayette County1,854Harris26.9%Buttigieg20.0%
Aransas County1,805Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.2%
Bandera County1,790Buttigieg22.9%Harris22.2%
Bee County1,744Harris36.8%Newsom11.9%
Llano County1,729Buttigieg29.1%Harris18.2%
San Jacinto County1,724Harris34.8%Buttigieg14.2%
Titus County1,699Harris38.0%Newsom11.2%
Milam County1,631Harris30.8%Buttigieg15.4%
Palo Pinto County1,625Harris23.6%Buttigieg20.5%
Houston County1,608Harris55.7%Ossoff7.8%
Colorado County1,606Harris39.6%Buttigieg12.1%
Lampasas County1,555Harris24.9%Buttigieg19.9%
Panola County1,549Harris36.0%Buttigieg13.6%
Limestone County1,515Harris48.9%Newsom9.1%
Willacy County1,508Harris27.2%Newsom14.8%
Hale County1,486Harris28.9%Newsom13.8%
Shelby County1,471Harris44.2%Buttigieg10.0%
Howard County1,423Harris31.5%Buttigieg13.4%
Robertson County1,422Harris47.5%Newsom9.6%
Burleson County1,402Harris40.5%Buttigieg12.2%
Freestone County1,319Harris45.0%Buttigieg10.0%
Gonzales County1,290Harris39.9%Newsom11.3%
Zapata County1,273Harris25.7%Newsom15.3%
Calhoun County1,261Harris27.0%Buttigieg16.2%
Lee County1,249Harris33.1%Buttigieg14.6%
Blanco County1,238Buttigieg26.8%Harris18.1%
Lavaca County1,221Harris26.1%Buttigieg19.4%
Frio County1,204Harris36.8%Newsom12.2%
Falls County1,196Harris52.0%Ossoff8.7%
Tyler County1,189Harris39.7%Buttigieg11.8%
Montague County1,153Buttigieg23.5%Harris20.6%
Bosque County1,150Harris22.7%Buttigieg21.8%
Hockley County1,118Harris25.6%Buttigieg16.0%
Duval County1,115Harris26.4%Ocasio-Cortez15.7%
DeWitt County1,088Harris34.1%Buttigieg14.0%
Zavala County1,077Harris25.8%Ocasio-Cortez15.2%
Leon County1,072Harris32.1%Buttigieg16.0%
Trinity County949Harris34.6%Buttigieg15.1%
Morris County944Harris52.1%Ossoff9.3%
Dimmit County943Harris28.3%Newsom14.2%
Jones County925Harris40.6%Buttigieg10.7%
Young County922Buttigieg24.4%Harris20.1%
Brewster County913Buttigieg26.8%Newsom15.9%
Eastland County912Buttigieg22.9%Harris21.5%
Hutchinson County910Harris24.3%Buttigieg19.3%
Gray County895Harris28.7%Buttigieg16.6%
Camp County890Harris43.4%Buttigieg10.4%
Karnes County888Harris45.7%Newsom10.0%
Red River County862Harris46.7%Buttigieg9.9%
Madison County859Harris44.7%Ossoff11.5%
Jackson County845Harris35.3%Buttigieg13.5%
Pecos County831Harris35.4%Newsom12.8%
Andrews County818Harris24.9%Buttigieg15.2%
Newton County801Harris49.6%Buttigieg8.4%
Moore County797Harris31.6%Newsom12.8%
Marion County780Harris50.5%Buttigieg8.5%
Reeves County768Harris31.8%Newsom13.3%
Comanche County747Buttigieg22.7%Harris21.3%
Deaf Smith County747Harris26.8%Newsom14.4%
Rains County742Harris23.1%Buttigieg22.4%
Callahan County736Buttigieg26.0%Harris18.7%
Nolan County710Harris25.8%Buttigieg17.5%
Brooks County709Harris28.6%Newsom15.1%
Scurry County706Harris27.8%Buttigieg15.3%
Gaines County695Harris24.8%Buttigieg16.0%
Franklin County670Harris24.4%Buttigieg21.8%
Live Oak County665Harris26.0%Buttigieg16.3%
Somervell County635Buttigieg25.6%Harris18.4%
Wilbarger County630Harris30.3%Buttigieg15.9%
San Augustine County616Harris54.3%Ossoff7.6%
Lamb County615Harris29.6%Buttigieg14.1%
Sabine County615Harris34.2%Buttigieg15.8%
Clay County610Buttigieg24.5%Harris20.5%
Presidio County592Harris22.1%Ocasio-Cortez17.0%
Goliad County581Harris29.9%Buttigieg15.6%
Refugio County580Harris37.7%Newsom11.8%
Dawson County570Harris38.0%Newsom11.5%
Ward County564Harris34.6%Newsom12.5%
La Salle County558Harris37.0%Newsom11.9%
Archer County546Buttigieg24.4%Harris20.5%
Hamilton County511Buttigieg26.6%Harris18.4%
Terry County496Harris34.2%Newsom12.3%
Runnels County483Harris28.3%Buttigieg17.3%
Jim Hogg County460Harris20.5%Ocasio-Cortez19.9%
Coleman County455Harris28.4%Buttigieg18.4%
Jack County440Harris24.9%Buttigieg18.6%
McCulloch County418Buttigieg22.2%Harris21.8%
Stephens County414Harris25.6%Buttigieg18.9%
Swisher County346Harris36.8%Newsom11.7%
Ochiltree County342Harris20.6%Buttigieg18.5%
Parmer County342Harris23.4%Buttigieg16.6%
Lynn County334Buttigieg21.2%Harris20.2%
Mitchell County333Harris33.6%Buttigieg12.7%
Delta County329Harris33.1%Buttigieg15.2%
Yoakum County328Harris20.8%Buttigieg17.1%
Carson County326Buttigieg24.6%Harris18.9%
Mason County321Buttigieg30.6%Harris16.5%
Castro County316Harris26.0%Buttigieg15.6%
San Saba County310Harris22.8%Buttigieg20.9%
Crosby County307Harris30.6%Buttigieg13.7%
Floyd County302Harris28.8%Buttigieg14.4%
Mills County302Buttigieg25.9%Harris19.1%
Martin County284Harris29.6%Buttigieg14.5%
Childress County280Harris34.4%Buttigieg13.0%
Haskell County278Harris24.6%Buttigieg20.7%
Winkler County267Harris29.9%Newsom13.4%
Kimble County266Buttigieg24.2%Harris21.3%
Bailey County257Harris25.3%Buttigieg15.4%
Fisher County246Harris27.5%Buttigieg17.1%
Crockett County244Harris28.5%Newsom14.3%
Garza County239Harris44.1%Ossoff11.7%
Hartley County237Harris31.9%Buttigieg15.8%
Real County232Harris23.8%Buttigieg21.9%
Wheeler County229Harris24.2%Buttigieg20.4%
Hansford County225Buttigieg25.0%Harris16.0%
Kinney County225Harris26.0%Buttigieg14.8%
Jeff Davis County215Buttigieg25.9%Harris19.2%
Crane County213Harris38.2%Newsom12.0%
Sutton County208Harris23.7%Buttigieg15.6%
Hemphill County197Harris26.4%Buttigieg18.8%
Hudspeth County195Harris24.6%Ocasio-Cortez18.2%
Coke County189Buttigieg24.5%Harris20.4%
Baylor County181Buttigieg24.4%Harris21.8%
Culberson County181Harris30.3%Newsom14.3%
Knox County181Harris31.9%Buttigieg15.0%
Shackelford County180Buttigieg30.9%Harris15.2%
Donley County178Harris23.6%Buttigieg20.3%
Hardeman County168Harris27.2%Buttigieg18.1%
Dallam County163Harris22.2%Buttigieg17.6%
Upton County163Harris29.5%Buttigieg13.5%
Schleicher County157Harris24.3%Buttigieg16.5%
Collingsworth County152Harris32.5%Buttigieg16.1%
Edwards County145Harris21.8%Ocasio-Cortez18.5%
Reagan County145Harris29.8%Newsom13.3%
Concho County144Harris27.4%Buttigieg16.4%
Hall County144Harris28.1%Buttigieg17.9%
Lipscomb County138Buttigieg22.3%Harris19.5%
Cochran County133Harris35.6%Newsom12.1%
Menard County131Buttigieg22.8%Harris22.6%
Dickens County122Harris25.2%Buttigieg19.1%
Armstrong County108Buttigieg25.6%Harris18.8%
Irion County102Buttigieg23.0%Harris19.0%
Oldham County101Buttigieg21.7%Harris19.5%
Briscoe County89Harris33.0%Buttigieg15.8%
Sherman County89Buttigieg25.5%Harris16.1%
Throckmorton County87Buttigieg26.1%Harris19.3%
Cottle County86Harris25.9%Buttigieg17.4%
Stonewall County82Harris22.8%Buttigieg22.0%
Glasscock County67Buttigieg25.0%Harris16.7%
Motley County66Harris31.4%Buttigieg16.9%
Sterling County65Buttigieg23.5%Harris17.8%
Foard County64Buttigieg23.7%Harris21.3%
Terrell County63Harris23.0%Buttigieg21.4%
McMullen County61Harris24.4%Newsom15.2%
Roberts County50Buttigieg23.2%Harris20.3%
Kent County49Buttigieg23.9%Harris22.5%
Borden County36Buttigieg30.1%Harris15.3%
Kenedy County35Harris36.1%Newsom13.3%
King County12Buttigieg30.0%Harris17.0%
Loving County9Harris29.9%Buttigieg17.3%