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2028 forecast · Tennessee · Democratic primary

Tennessee Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 93% of runs
35.6%Harris's projected share
608,602Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris35.6%216,45493%25.2%
Buttigieg18.0%109,7134%10.8%
Newsom10.3%62,5541%8.0%
Ossoff8.5%51,9001%6.4%
Ocasio-Cortez8.4%51,275<1%4.8%
Kelly3.8%22,873<1%5.8%
Shapiro2.6%15,752<1%4.4%
Beshear1.0%6,052<1%4.2%
Whitmer0.5%3,308<1%0.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Tennessee votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegHarris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Tennessee
Progressive33%
Working class and union18%
Institutional16%
Democratic leaning independents15%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents4%

Black 26.4%, Hispanic 2.3%, Asian and other 1.8%, under 30 13%, 65 and up 30.1%, college graduates 43.2%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 516,250 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 608,602 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Shelby County117,439Harris72.8%Ossoff6.6%
Davidson County80,633Harris32.5%Buttigieg16.0%
Knox County43,506Buttigieg28.2%Harris17.1%
Hamilton County38,862Harris32.2%Buttigieg17.5%
Rutherford County31,850Harris30.2%Buttigieg16.3%
Williamson County26,781Buttigieg41.8%Newsom12.4%
Montgomery County18,638Harris38.1%Ossoff12.9%
Sumner County16,949Buttigieg24.3%Harris23.4%
Wilson County14,189Buttigieg26.7%Harris20.8%
Sullivan County10,680Buttigieg29.2%Harris18.4%
Blount County10,544Buttigieg28.4%Harris18.6%
Madison County10,316Harris61.5%Ossoff8.2%
Washington County10,118Buttigieg29.9%Harris16.5%
Maury County8,972Harris28.1%Buttigieg19.5%
Bradley County6,984Buttigieg24.3%Harris21.3%
Anderson County6,072Buttigieg27.4%Harris19.4%
Sevier County5,858Buttigieg26.8%Harris19.2%
Robertson County5,530Harris26.2%Buttigieg20.1%
Putnam County5,358Buttigieg28.9%Harris15.2%
Fayette County4,937Harris54.6%Newsom8.0%
Loudon County4,799Buttigieg30.1%Harris18.2%
Tipton County4,672Harris43.9%Buttigieg11.1%
Cumberland County4,529Buttigieg26.2%Harris21.0%
Roane County3,890Buttigieg25.5%Harris21.6%
Greene County3,881Buttigieg26.1%Harris19.9%
Dickson County3,754Buttigieg24.0%Harris21.9%
Gibson County3,663Harris38.7%Buttigieg13.7%
Coffee County3,584Buttigieg23.9%Harris21.5%
Hamblen County3,576Buttigieg23.7%Harris22.6%
Jefferson County3,320Buttigieg26.7%Harris20.1%
Carter County3,217Buttigieg26.0%Harris20.8%
Cheatham County3,185Buttigieg28.1%Harris17.3%
Hawkins County3,156Buttigieg25.2%Harris21.0%
McMinn County3,147Buttigieg23.7%Harris22.1%
Bedford County2,995Harris27.9%Buttigieg18.5%
Franklin County2,941Buttigieg23.3%Harris21.2%
Monroe County2,790Buttigieg24.4%Harris21.8%
Warren County2,370Harris23.3%Buttigieg21.6%
Hardeman County2,364Harris68.1%Ossoff7.1%
Lawrence County2,352Buttigieg24.1%Harris21.4%
Marshall County2,297Buttigieg24.9%Harris21.0%
Dyer County2,203Harris34.8%Buttigieg15.9%
Lincoln County2,199Harris25.6%Buttigieg21.8%
Henry County2,194Harris26.4%Buttigieg21.1%
Haywood County2,095Harris76.3%Ossoff4.9%
Giles County2,050Harris29.5%Buttigieg19.1%
Marion County1,951Harris22.9%Buttigieg22.8%
Weakley County1,924Buttigieg22.6%Harris21.9%
Cocke County1,884Harris24.0%Buttigieg22.1%
Lauderdale County1,847Harris63.4%Ossoff8.1%
Obion County1,831Harris32.5%Buttigieg17.3%
Campbell County1,815Buttigieg24.0%Harris21.9%
Rhea County1,799Buttigieg25.3%Harris20.1%
Carroll County1,708Harris30.0%Buttigieg17.8%
Henderson County1,627Harris31.3%Buttigieg17.5%
Claiborne County1,603Buttigieg27.1%Harris18.9%
White County1,589Buttigieg24.2%Harris21.5%
McNairy County1,445Harris28.9%Buttigieg18.8%
Hardin County1,441Harris23.4%Buttigieg22.7%
Hickman County1,385Harris24.8%Buttigieg21.1%
Overton County1,382Buttigieg24.5%Harris20.7%
Grainger County1,276Buttigieg24.9%Harris21.6%
DeKalb County1,230Buttigieg26.3%Harris19.2%
Smith County1,201Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.6%
Macon County1,154Buttigieg23.9%Harris20.5%
Humphreys County1,119Buttigieg24.6%Harris21.0%
Unicoi County1,105Buttigieg28.0%Harris18.6%
Fentress County1,070Buttigieg25.4%Harris20.7%
Chester County1,064Harris27.6%Buttigieg18.4%
Polk County1,060Buttigieg25.5%Harris20.2%
Johnson County1,033Harris26.2%Buttigieg21.1%
Morgan County1,014Harris26.2%Buttigieg20.0%
Scott County1,004Buttigieg24.4%Harris20.1%
Union County1,000Buttigieg25.4%Harris20.1%
Sequatchie County979Buttigieg27.2%Harris18.7%
Benton County924Harris23.3%Buttigieg22.7%
Crockett County923Harris37.3%Buttigieg13.9%
Cannon County851Buttigieg25.1%Harris20.1%
Stewart County840Buttigieg25.5%Harris20.4%
Wayne County792Harris26.7%Buttigieg20.3%
Bledsoe County783Harris29.7%Buttigieg17.9%
Meigs County749Harris23.5%Buttigieg22.1%
Grundy County745Buttigieg24.4%Harris20.0%
Jackson County717Buttigieg25.7%Harris20.5%
Lewis County707Buttigieg23.2%Harris21.4%
Decatur County664Harris24.4%Buttigieg22.4%
Trousdale County652Harris35.2%Buttigieg13.0%
Houston County516Harris24.0%Buttigieg21.9%
Clay County467Harris26.4%Buttigieg20.9%
Moore County451Buttigieg28.1%Harris18.6%
Perry County434Buttigieg24.9%Harris20.1%
Van Buren County390Buttigieg24.6%Harris21.0%
Pickett County359Buttigieg27.1%Harris19.9%
Lake County346Harris54.4%Ossoff8.7%
Hancock County313Buttigieg23.3%Harris22.7%