2028 forecast · Tennessee · President · 11 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Tennessee.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +20.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +14.1 and R +27.4. Projected votes: 1,252,240 Democratic, 1,906,528 Republican, 46,163 other, 3,204,931 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +20.72028 margin
R +30.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +30.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +17.0 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.6 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +20.7 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 3,063,942 in 2024, 3,204,931 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Tennessee| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +19.4 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +19.7 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +20.1 | <1% |
| Harris | R +20.1 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +20.3 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +20.6 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +20.6 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +20.6 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +20.7 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +21.5 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +21.7 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +21.7 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +21.8 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +21.8 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +23.5 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +25.4 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Tennessee| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +18.6 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +19.4 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +19.5 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +19.6 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +19.7 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| Vance | R +20.7 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
95 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby County | D +25.8 | D +44.7 | D +53 to D +36 | 227,423 | 86,960 | 319,656 | D +0.55 | Even |
| Davidson County | D +28.0 | D +43.7 | D +52 to D +36 | 211,374 | 82,886 | 300,342 | D +0.24 | Even |
| Knox County | R +19.8 | R +11.3 | R +4 to R +19 | 103,309 | 129,560 | 236,921 | R +0.16 | D +0.43 |
| Hamilton County | R +13.3 | R +5.5 | D +2 to R +13 | 84,885 | 94,729 | 182,683 | R +0.10 | D +0.36 |
| Rutherford County | R +22.1 | R +9.3 | R +2 to R +17 | 73,853 | 88,957 | 165,482 | D +0.13 | D +0.77 |
| Williamson County | R +32.9 | R +15.4 | R +7 to R +24 | 64,668 | 88,218 | 155,529 | R +0.17 | D +0.77 |
| Sumner County | R +42.3 | R +33.2 | R +26 to R +41 | 34,656 | 69,109 | 105,143 | R +0.21 | D +0.97 |
| Montgomery County | R +18.7 | R +8.8 | R +1 to R +16 | 42,085 | 50,189 | 93,859 | D +0.20 | D +0.80 |
| Wilson County | R +40.6 | R +29.9 | R +22 to R +38 | 32,032 | 59,341 | 92,700 | R +0.18 | D +1.64 |
| Sullivan County | R +55.5 | R +48.0 | R +40 to R +56 | 19,616 | 55,808 | 76,355 | R +0.36 | D +0.56 |
| Blount County | R +48.3 | R +40.6 | R +33 to R +49 | 21,003 | 49,734 | 71,755 | R +0.34 | D +0.77 |
| Washington County | R +40.0 | R +33.2 | R +26 to R +41 | 21,303 | 42,495 | 64,742 | R +0.27 | D +0.64 |
| Maury County | R +45.1 | R +33.6 | R +26 to R +41 | 19,421 | 39,040 | 59,208 | R +0.18 | D +1.68 |
| Bradley County | R +59.5 | R +52.1 | R +44 to R +60 | 12,151 | 38,552 | 51,375 | R +0.21 | D +0.77 |
| Sevier County | R +61.8 | R +54.4 | R +46 to R +62 | 9,757 | 33,025 | 43,318 | R +0.29 | D +0.28 |
| Madison County | R +18.4 | R +7.8 | D +0 to R +16 | 18,474 | 21,596 | 40,574 | D +0.17 | D +0.14 |
| Putnam County | R +47.9 | R +42.2 | R +34 to R +50 | 10,864 | 26,697 | 38,068 | R +0.21 | D +0.90 |
| Anderson County | R +36.2 | R +31.6 | R +24 to R +39 | 12,814 | 24,630 | 37,979 | R +0.36 | D +0.64 |
| Robertson County | R +51.4 | R +43.7 | R +36 to R +52 | 10,523 | 26,853 | 37,848 | R +0.18 | D +1.10 |
| Loudon County | R +53.6 | R +45.9 | R +38 to R +54 | 9,633 | 25,950 | 36,044 | R +0.40 | D +1.91 |
| Cumberland County | R +59.3 | R +57.0 | R +49 to R +65 | 7,532 | 27,463 | 35,320 | R +0.44 | D +1.32 |
| Greene County | R +66.5 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +68 | 6,240 | 25,232 | 31,889 | R +0.30 | D +0.87 |
| Roane County | R +55.2 | R +51.0 | R +43 to R +59 | 6,847 | 21,113 | 28,355 | R +0.36 | D +1.00 |
| Jefferson County | R +64.8 | R +56.8 | R +49 to R +65 | 5,861 | 21,255 | 27,429 | R +0.28 | D +1.39 |
| Tipton County | R +53.3 | R +47.7 | R +40 to R +56 | 7,075 | 19,970 | 27,351 | R +0.09 | D +0.30 |
| Hawkins County | R +69.4 | R +64.7 | R +57 to R +73 | 4,679 | 21,817 | 26,765 | R +0.28 | D +0.87 |
| Dickson County | R +52.5 | R +46.8 | R +39 to R +55 | 7,025 | 19,365 | 26,749 | R +0.27 | D +0.95 |
| Hamblen County | R +59.4 | R +51.6 | R +44 to R +60 | 6,315 | 19,773 | 26,364 | R +0.24 | D +0.84 |
| Coffee County | R +55.8 | R +51.4 | R +44 to R +60 | 6,296 | 19,634 | 26,311 | R +0.27 | D +0.99 |
| McMinn County | R +64.8 | R +60.6 | R +53 to R +69 | 4,935 | 20,092 | 25,277 | R +0.26 | D +1.15 |
| Fayette County | R +42.8 | R +33.9 | R +26 to R +42 | 8,102 | 16,415 | 24,772 | R +0.12 | D +0.90 |
| Carter County | R +63.8 | R +59.1 | R +51 to R +67 | 4,991 | 19,419 | 24,684 | R +0.32 | D +0.38 |
| Monroe County | R +67.4 | R +63.4 | R +55 to R +72 | 4,199 | 18,741 | 23,177 | R +0.28 | D +1.18 |
| Gibson County | R +52.4 | R +48.8 | R +41 to R +57 | 5,566 | 16,174 | 21,974 | R +0.16 | D +0.37 |
| Bedford County | R +58.6 | R +50.1 | R +42 to R +58 | 5,332 | 16,050 | 21,628 | R +0.15 | D +1.17 |
| Cheatham County | R +46.6 | R +37.8 | R +30 to R +46 | 6,560 | 14,529 | 21,401 | R +0.27 | D +0.47 |
| Franklin County | R +53.7 | R +51.3 | R +43 to R +59 | 4,986 | 15,487 | 20,701 | R +0.29 | D +0.86 |
| Lawrence County | R +69.7 | R +65.7 | R +58 to R +74 | 3,465 | 16,748 | 20,415 | R +0.24 | D +0.98 |
| Warren County | R +56.7 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +62 | 4,104 | 13,424 | 17,741 | R +0.27 | D +0.87 |
| Marshall County | R +57.1 | R +51.2 | R +43 to R +59 | 4,185 | 12,985 | 17,365 | R +0.23 | D +1.34 |
| Lincoln County | R +65.2 | R +62.0 | R +54 to R +70 | 3,091 | 13,197 | 16,469 | R +0.24 | D +0.69 |
| Cocke County | R +68.9 | R +64.0 | R +56 to R +72 | 2,837 | 12,914 | 15,917 | R +0.29 | D +0.91 |
| Campbell County | R +70.1 | R +67.1 | R +59 to R +75 | 2,527 | 12,828 | 15,498 | R +0.29 | D +0.54 |
| Henry County | R +55.9 | R +54.7 | R +47 to R +63 | 3,356 | 11,458 | 14,992 | R +0.34 | D +0.45 |
| Rhea County | R +67.6 | R +64.0 | R +56 to R +72 | 2,641 | 12,027 | 14,849 | R +0.25 | D +0.78 |
| Dyer County | R +62.2 | R +58.0 | R +50 to R +66 | 2,954 | 11,130 | 14,198 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Marion County | R +56.2 | R +53.4 | R +45 to R +62 | 3,245 | 10,676 | 14,067 | R +0.32 | D +0.51 |
| Claiborne County | R +70.7 | R +65.5 | R +58 to R +74 | 2,357 | 11,320 | 13,805 | R +0.25 | D +0.65 |
| Weakley County | R +58.9 | R +56.8 | R +49 to R +65 | 2,950 | 10,720 | 13,832 | R +0.19 | D +0.20 |
| Giles County | R +55.5 | R +53.1 | R +45 to R +61 | 3,175 | 10,370 | 13,679 | R +0.27 | D +0.55 |
| White County | R +67.2 | R +63.2 | R +55 to R +72 | 2,471 | 10,956 | 13,565 | R +0.29 | D +1.28 |
| Obion County | R +65.3 | R +63.9 | R +56 to R +72 | 2,232 | 10,122 | 12,459 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Henderson County | R +68.3 | R +64.5 | R +57 to R +73 | 2,141 | 9,935 | 12,170 | R +0.21 | D +0.44 |
| Hardin County | R +71.6 | R +69.5 | R +61 to R +78 | 1,839 | 10,235 | 12,201 | R +0.27 | D +0.77 |
| Carroll County | R +62.1 | R +59.4 | R +51 to R +68 | 2,426 | 9,520 | 12,069 | R +0.23 | D +0.48 |
| Grainger County | R +74.1 | R +66.5 | R +58 to R +75 | 1,939 | 9,630 | 11,666 | R +0.26 | D +1.54 |
| Overton County | R +64.8 | R +62.9 | R +55 to R +71 | 2,106 | 9,237 | 11,454 | R +0.29 | D +0.90 |
| McNairy County | R +69.1 | R +67.6 | R +59 to R +76 | 1,801 | 9,321 | 11,252 | R +0.24 | D +0.35 |
| Macon County | R +75.0 | R +66.4 | R +58 to R +75 | 1,845 | 9,143 | 11,099 | R +0.18 | D +1.47 |
| Hickman County | R +61.5 | R +56.8 | R +49 to R +65 | 2,280 | 8,274 | 10,658 | R +0.25 | D +0.76 |
| Fentress County | R +76.3 | R +70.6 | R +62 to R +79 | 1,506 | 8,728 | 10,322 | R +0.24 | D +1.65 |
| DeKalb County | R +63.3 | R +58.9 | R +51 to R +67 | 2,023 | 7,828 | 9,960 | R +0.26 | D +1.23 |
| Scott County | R +80.3 | R +77.4 | R +69 to R +86 | 1,098 | 8,621 | 9,791 | R +0.18 | D +0.71 |
| Smith County | R +65.5 | R +58.9 | R +51 to R +67 | 1,973 | 7,628 | 9,706 | R +0.22 | D +0.78 |
| Hardeman County | R +24.3 | R +16.0 | R +8 to R +25 | 3,881 | 5,358 | 9,328 | D +0.13 | Even |
| Union County | R +71.7 | R +65.1 | R +57 to R +74 | 1,573 | 7,454 | 9,113 | R +0.25 | D +1.30 |
| Polk County | R +68.7 | R +63.3 | R +55 to R +72 | 1,635 | 7,271 | 8,990 | R +0.25 | D +0.97 |
| Morgan County | R +75.1 | R +70.2 | R +62 to R +79 | 1,305 | 7,459 | 8,860 | R +0.19 | D +0.91 |
| Sequatchie County | R +66.9 | R +60.6 | R +53 to R +69 | 1,653 | 6,741 | 8,489 | R +0.28 | D +1.77 |
| Humphreys County | R +56.7 | R +55.3 | R +47 to R +64 | 1,846 | 6,412 | 8,362 | R +0.35 | D +0.56 |
| Unicoi County | R +62.7 | R +57.3 | R +49 to R +65 | 1,764 | 6,492 | 8,351 | R +0.33 | D +0.12 |
| Johnson County | R +69.9 | R +66.3 | R +58 to R +74 | 1,364 | 6,733 | 8,173 | R +0.25 | D +0.76 |
| Lauderdale County | R +37.3 | R +33.3 | R +25 to R +42 | 2,699 | 5,392 | 8,163 | D +0.07 | Even |
| Chester County | R +65.7 | R +61.0 | R +53 to R +69 | 1,521 | 6,273 | 7,894 | R +0.16 | D +0.57 |
| Benton County | R +63.4 | R +62.2 | R +54 to R +71 | 1,343 | 5,761 | 7,169 | R +0.34 | D +0.47 |
| Cannon County | R +66.8 | R +59.5 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,427 | 5,628 | 7,136 | R +0.25 | D +0.82 |
| Wayne County | R +77.5 | R +72.6 | R +64 to R +81 | 924 | 5,828 | 6,810 | R +0.18 | D +0.31 |
| Stewart County | R +64.6 | R +61.4 | R +53 to R +70 | 1,296 | 5,427 | 6,808 | R +0.29 | D +0.88 |
| Meigs County | R +68.0 | R +65.1 | R +57 to R +73 | 1,128 | 5,331 | 6,520 | R +0.26 | D +1.65 |
| Grundy County | R +69.8 | R +68.5 | R +60 to R +77 | 1,008 | 5,392 | 6,459 | R +0.27 | D +0.78 |
| Bledsoe County | R +71.0 | R +66.9 | R +59 to R +75 | 1,050 | 5,290 | 6,400 | R +0.23 | D +1.09 |
| Haywood County | D +0.4 | D +14.1 | D +23 to D +5 | 3,558 | 2,681 | 6,298 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Lewis County | R +66.1 | R +61.5 | R +53 to R +70 | 1,174 | 4,932 | 6,166 | R +0.28 | D +1.10 |
| Crockett County | R +59.3 | R +56.3 | R +48 to R +64 | 1,285 | 4,596 | 5,938 | R +0.15 | D +0.21 |
| Jackson County | R +63.0 | R +60.4 | R +52 to R +69 | 1,148 | 4,658 | 5,864 | R +0.34 | D +1.12 |
| Decatur County | R +69.8 | R +67.8 | R +60 to R +76 | 869 | 4,526 | 5,454 | R +0.29 | D +0.67 |
| Trousdale County | R +59.4 | R +52.6 | R +44 to R +61 | 1,103 | 3,554 | 4,706 | Even | D +1.07 |
| Perry County | R +69.8 | R +66.9 | R +59 to R +75 | 638 | 3,222 | 3,891 | R +0.27 | D +1.42 |
| Houston County | R +58.9 | R +56.8 | R +49 to R +65 | 819 | 2,975 | 3,848 | R +0.30 | D +0.43 |
| Moore County | R +69.9 | R +64.8 | R +57 to R +73 | 658 | 3,087 | 3,801 | R +0.25 | D +1.12 |
| Clay County | R +67.1 | R +63.7 | R +55 to R +72 | 667 | 3,008 | 3,709 | R +0.33 | D +0.64 |
| Van Buren County | R +67.7 | R +65.0 | R +57 to R +73 | 602 | 2,843 | 3,476 | R +0.32 | D +1.71 |
| Hancock County | R +76.9 | R +75.2 | R +67 to R +84 | 366 | 2,591 | 2,978 | R +0.25 | D +1.17 |
| Pickett County | R +66.7 | R +65.2 | R +57 to R +73 | 509 | 2,419 | 2,956 | R +0.35 | D +0.83 |
| Lake County | R +55.4 | R +51.0 | R +43 to R +60 | 427 | 1,315 | 1,758 | R +0.06 | Even |