2028 forecast · South Dakota · President · 3 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry South Dakota.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +16.2 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +9.6 and R +22.7. Projected votes: 184,801 Democratic, 256,141 Republican, 9,904 other, 450,846 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +16.22028 margin
R +29.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +29.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +14.7 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.5% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.5 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +16.2 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 428,922 in 2024, 450,846 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
South Dakota| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +14.3 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +14.7 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +14.9 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +15.1 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +15.1 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +15.5 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +15.7 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +15.7 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +15.7 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +15.9 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +15.9 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +16.2 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +16.3 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +16.3 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +16.3 | <1% |
| Harris | R +16.4 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +16.4 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +16.5 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +16.6 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +16.6 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +16.9 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +16.9 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +17.1 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +17.4 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +17.6 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +17.6 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +17.6 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +18.9 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +20.9 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
South Dakota| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +13.8 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +14.4 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +14.5 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +14.6 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +14.7 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +14.7 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +14.9 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +15.0 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +15.1 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +15.1 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +15.2 | <1% |
| Vance | R +16.2 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +16.3 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
66 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnehaha County | R +13.0 | D +0.8 | D +8 to R +7 | 49,636 | 48,834 | 100,738 | R +0.13 | D +0.38 |
| Pennington County | R +27.2 | R +11.0 | R +4 to R +19 | 25,930 | 32,363 | 59,783 | R +0.26 | D +0.57 |
| Lincoln County | R +27.1 | R +7.7 | Even to R +15 | 19,267 | 22,469 | 42,628 | R +0.23 | D +1.31 |
| Lawrence County | R +32.2 | R +21.2 | R +14 to R +29 | 6,569 | 10,111 | 17,130 | R +0.38 | D +1.23 |
| Brown County | R +27.3 | R +17.1 | R +10 to R +25 | 6,888 | 9,736 | 16,950 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Brookings County | R +17.8 | R +8.4 | R +1 to R +16 | 7,548 | 8,927 | 16,887 | R +0.07 | D +0.43 |
| Meade County | R +52.2 | R +36.6 | R +29 to R +44 | 4,746 | 10,234 | 15,348 | R +0.18 | D +0.36 |
| Codington County | R +41.8 | R +32.1 | R +24 to R +40 | 4,650 | 9,042 | 14,001 | R +0.35 | D +0.51 |
| Yankton County | R +26.3 | R +16.4 | R +9 to R +24 | 4,417 | 6,144 | 10,827 | R +0.38 | D +0.14 |
| Davison County | R +38.7 | R +31.0 | R +23 to R +39 | 3,086 | 5,865 | 9,152 | R +0.38 | D +0.11 |
| Union County | R +41.5 | R +24.5 | R +17 to R +32 | 3,356 | 5,535 | 9,056 | R +0.33 | D +0.38 |
| Hughes County | R +30.9 | R +15.3 | R +8 to R +23 | 3,459 | 4,710 | 8,366 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Beadle County | R +41.0 | R +30.6 | R +23 to R +38 | 2,300 | 4,332 | 6,779 | R +0.24 | D +0.38 |
| Custer County | R +46.7 | R +29.3 | R +22 to R +37 | 2,189 | 4,003 | 6,315 | R +0.46 | D +1.53 |
| Clay County | D +6.7 | D +17.1 | D +25 to D +10 | 3,593 | 2,544 | 6,281 | Even | Even |
| Lake County | R +31.8 | R +24.4 | R +17 to R +32 | 2,186 | 3,594 | 5,889 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Butte County | R +62.1 | R +46.5 | R +39 to R +55 | 1,388 | 3,805 | 5,307 | R +0.27 | D +0.90 |
| Turner County | R +52.7 | R +36.4 | R +29 to R +44 | 1,463 | 3,139 | 4,712 | R +0.34 | D +0.84 |
| Fall River County | R +50.5 | R +37.3 | R +30 to R +45 | 1,316 | 2,883 | 4,298 | R +0.42 | D +1.01 |
| Roberts County | R +23.4 | R +16.5 | R +9 to R +25 | 1,680 | 2,346 | 4,098 | R +0.12 | D +0.06 |
| Hutchinson County | R +58.9 | R +48.3 | R +41 to R +56 | 929 | 2,668 | 3,657 | R +0.33 | D +0.08 |
| Charles Mix County | R +43.7 | R +34.7 | R +27 to R +42 | 1,151 | 2,373 | 3,582 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Hamlin County | R +61.5 | R +47.4 | R +40 to R +55 | 913 | 2,557 | 3,532 | R +0.16 | D +1.26 |
| Grant County | R +46.6 | R +38.4 | R +31 to R +46 | 1,062 | 2,386 | 3,525 | R +0.39 | D +0.13 |
| Moody County | R +32.6 | R +22.8 | R +15 to R +30 | 1,222 | 1,945 | 3,232 | R +0.22 | D +0.36 |
| Oglala Lakota County | D +72.7 | D +87.5 | D +96 to D +80 | 2,898 | 193 | 3,167 | D +0.46 | Even |
| McCook County | R +50.5 | R +34.1 | R +26 to R +42 | 1,005 | 2,045 | 3,117 | R +0.30 | D +0.54 |
| Bon Homme County | R +52.5 | R +45.0 | R +37 to R +53 | 824 | 2,171 | 3,051 | R +0.29 | D +0.53 |
| Spink County | R +39.9 | R +31.0 | R +23 to R +39 | 1,012 | 1,923 | 2,998 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Day County | R +30.5 | R +26.3 | R +19 to R +34 | 1,038 | 1,781 | 2,870 | R +0.42 | D +0.14 |
| Kingsbury County | R +44.7 | R +34.8 | R +27 to R +43 | 900 | 1,861 | 2,813 | R +0.38 | D +0.32 |
| Tripp County | R +64.1 | R +55.7 | R +48 to R +64 | 574 | 2,020 | 2,629 | R +0.27 | D +0.39 |
| Brule County | R +43.6 | R +33.9 | R +26 to R +42 | 778 | 1,577 | 2,411 | R +0.31 | D +0.13 |
| Walworth County | R +60.3 | R +45.5 | R +38 to R +53 | 635 | 1,695 | 2,371 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Deuel County | R +53.0 | R +45.2 | R +38 to R +53 | 624 | 1,655 | 2,328 | R +0.36 | D +0.40 |
| Gregory County | R +61.6 | R +52.4 | R +44 to R +60 | 525 | 1,679 | 2,247 | R +0.30 | D +0.36 |
| Marshall County | R +24.4 | R +19.6 | R +12 to R +27 | 835 | 1,243 | 2,116 | R +0.40 | D +0.26 |
| Todd County | D +51.9 | D +70.9 | D +79 to D +63 | 1,763 | 300 | 2,112 | D +0.70 | R +0.05 |
| Hanson County | R +60.3 | R +44.8 | R +37 to R +53 | 558 | 1,466 | 2,058 | R +0.20 | D +0.05 |
| Dewey County | D +13.1 | D +28.1 | D +36 to D +20 | 1,252 | 702 | 1,998 | D +0.91 | D +0.05 |
| Edmunds County | R +61.6 | R +47.7 | R +40 to R +55 | 510 | 1,442 | 1,981 | R +0.35 | D +0.20 |
| Clark County | R +53.8 | R +47.2 | R +39 to R +55 | 480 | 1,338 | 1,859 | R +0.40 | D +0.70 |
| Hand County | R +58.1 | R +46.6 | R +39 to R +54 | 456 | 1,254 | 1,734 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Stanley County | R +47.6 | R +32.2 | R +25 to R +40 | 575 | 1,122 | 1,725 | R +0.37 | D +0.27 |
| Douglas County | R +73.3 | R +63.5 | R +56 to R +71 | 297 | 1,334 | 1,651 | R +0.21 | D +0.34 |
| Perkins County | R +71.0 | R +58.2 | R +50 to R +66 | 322 | 1,222 | 1,566 | R +0.28 | D +0.36 |
| Lyman County | R +40.4 | R +28.8 | R +21 to R +37 | 501 | 907 | 1,436 | R +0.08 | D +0.05 |
| Aurora County | R +55.5 | R +47.1 | R +39 to R +55 | 363 | 1,010 | 1,405 | R +0.26 | D +0.22 |
| McPherson County | R +70.5 | R +63.1 | R +55 to R +71 | 224 | 994 | 1,239 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Sanborn County | R +56.4 | R +45.2 | R +37 to R +53 | 328 | 871 | 1,222 | R +0.31 | D +0.34 |
| Potter County | R +66.4 | R +58.0 | R +50 to R +66 | 250 | 943 | 1,213 | R +0.34 | D +0.05 |
| Corson County | R +12.1 | R +2.2 | D +6 to R +10 | 548 | 573 | 1,137 | D +0.53 | Even |
| Faulk County | R +66.8 | R +60.5 | R +53 to R +68 | 221 | 899 | 1,143 | R +0.29 | D +0.52 |
| Miner County | R +48.3 | R +39.3 | R +31 to R +47 | 334 | 766 | 1,128 | R +0.45 | D +0.09 |
| Jackson County | R +35.7 | R +24.5 | R +16 to R +33 | 409 | 674 | 1,101 | D +0.45 | Even |
| Bennett County | R +26.9 | R +17.3 | R +9 to R +25 | 445 | 632 | 1,098 | D +0.39 | Even |
| Haakon County | R +81.1 | R +68.6 | R +61 to R +77 | 167 | 899 | 1,079 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Jerauld County | R +43.9 | R +36.8 | R +29 to R +45 | 296 | 641 | 951 | R +0.50 | D +0.15 |
| Sully County | R +62.0 | R +47.3 | R +40 to R +55 | 231 | 648 | 895 | R +0.27 | D +0.30 |
| Harding County | R +88.0 | R +70.2 | R +63 to R +78 | 121 | 691 | 828 | R +0.09 | D +0.39 |
| Mellette County | R +20.7 | R +10.3 | R +2 to R +18 | 352 | 433 | 805 | D +0.19 | D +0.78 |
| Ziebach County | R +2.9 | D +9.7 | D +18 to D +2 | 424 | 349 | 795 | D +0.72 | Even |
| Campbell County | R +70.9 | R +56.6 | R +49 to R +64 | 167 | 604 | 780 | R +0.32 | D +0.19 |
| Hyde County | R +56.3 | R +46.1 | R +38 to R +54 | 168 | 458 | 638 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Jones County | R +77.7 | R +66.0 | R +58 to R +74 | 86 | 422 | 519 | R +0.16 | D +0.59 |
| Buffalo County | D +27.9 | D +43.6 | D +52 to D +35 | 325 | 128 | 462 | D +1.04 | Even |