2028 forecast · South Dakota · Democratic primary

South Dakota Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 59% of runs

55.8%Harris's projected share

67,745Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	55.8%	37,817	59%	6.4%
Buttigieg	11.1%	7,523	15%	17.9%
Newsom	10.6%	7,165	13%	10.3%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.8%	3,901	7%	8.6%
Ossoff	5.1%	3,450	6%	4.7%
Kelly	0.4%	298	1%	7.5%
Shapiro	0.2%	135	<1%	6.5%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in South Dakota

Progressive43%

Working class and union18%

Institutional15%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 3.7%, Hispanic 2%, Asian and other 4.8%, under 30 12.1%, 65 and up 33.3%, college graduates 42.1%, women 54.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 52,661 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 67,745 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Minnehaha County	17,216	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Pennington County	9,126	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Lincoln County	6,010	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Brown County	2,723	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Brookings County	2,519	Harris	54.8%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Lawrence County	2,361	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Meade County	2,026	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Codington County	1,912	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Yankton County	1,766	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Davison County	1,337	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Hughes County	1,327	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Union County	1,319	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Clay County	1,064	Harris	54.7%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Beadle County	1,035	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Lake County	921	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Custer County	837	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Roberts County	648	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Butte County	607	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Turner County	601	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Fall River County	575	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Oglala Lakota County	557	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Charles Mix County	508	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Grant County	505	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Moody County	488	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Hutchinson County	468	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Spink County	468	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Day County	440	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
McCook County	411	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Bon Homme County	403	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Todd County	402	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Hamlin County	395	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Kingsbury County	386	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Brule County	346	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Dewey County	337	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Marshall County	337	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Tripp County	307	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Walworth County	305	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Deuel County	299	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Gregory County	274	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Hanson County	251	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Edmunds County	246	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Stanley County	237	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Clark County	234	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Hand County	220	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Lyman County	207	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Corson County	187	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Aurora County	180	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Douglas County	180	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Perkins County	172	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Bennett County	166	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Jackson County	161	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Miner County	155	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Potter County	153	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sanborn County	152	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
McPherson County	141	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Jerauld County	137	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Ziebach County	133	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Faulk County	128	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Mellette County	117	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Sully County	115	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Haakon County	108	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Campbell County	95	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Hyde County	87	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Buffalo County	83	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Harding County	78	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Jones County	56	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%

NewsomFavorite, wins 28% of runs

26.1%Newsom's projected share