2028 forecast · South Carolina · President · 9 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry South Carolina.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +9.1 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +2.8 and R +15.4. Projected votes: 1,214,951 Democratic, 1,457,477 Republican, 39,953 other, 2,712,381 in all.
4%Democratic win chance
R +9.12028 margin
R +18.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +18.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +5.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.1% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.7 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +9.1 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,548,140 in 2024, 2,712,383 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
South Carolina| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +7.9 | 5% |
| Harris | R +7.9 | 5% |
| WarnockHYP | R +8.1 | 5% |
| BookerHYP | R +8.3 | 5% |
| BeshearHYP | R +8.3 | 5% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +8.3 | 5% |
| CooperHYP | R +8.6 | 4% |
| CrockettHYP | R +8.7 | 4% |
| Cuban | R +8.7 | 4% |
| WalzHYP | R +8.8 | 4% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +8.9 | 4% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +8.9 | 4% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +8.9 | 3% |
| Ossoff | R +9.0 | 3% |
| BrownHYP | R +9.0 | 3% |
| Generic Democrat | R +9.1 | 3% |
| KellyHYP | R +9.2 | 3% |
| MurphyHYP | R +9.3 | 3% |
| PolisHYP | R +9.3 | 3% |
| KhannaHYP | R +9.3 | 3% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +9.4 | 3% |
| GallegoHYP | R +9.6 | 3% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +9.6 | 3% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +9.7 | 2% |
| Shapiro | R +9.8 | 2% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +9.8 | 2% |
| MooreHYP | R +10.0 | 2% |
| Newsom | R +11.4 | 1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +13.7 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
South Carolina| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Rand PaulHYP | R +7.9 | 5% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +8.1 | 5% |
| KempHYP | R +8.3 | 5% |
| CottonHYP | R +8.3 | 5% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +8.4 | 4% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +8.5 | 4% |
| Rubio | R +8.5 | 4% |
| CruzHYP | R +8.6 | 4% |
| HaleyHYP | R +8.6 | 4% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +8.6 | 4% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +8.8 | 4% |
| Vance | R +9.1 | 3% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +10.9 | 1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
46 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville County | R +22.6 | R +12.8 | R +6 to R +20 | 121,490 | 157,315 | 283,961 | Even | D +0.70 |
| Horry County | R +38.9 | R +32.4 | R +25 to R +40 | 77,793 | 152,450 | 232,745 | R +0.34 | D +1.96 |
| Charleston County | D +5.8 | D +19.3 | D +27 to D +12 | 131,860 | 89,250 | 225,232 | Even | D +0.16 |
| Richland County | D +35.2 | D +53.2 | D +61 to D +45 | 146,813 | 44,886 | 195,087 | D +0.60 | R +0.07 |
| Spartanburg County | R +34.0 | R +26.2 | R +19 to R +34 | 63,700 | 108,851 | 174,873 | Even | D +1.32 |
| York County | R +19.4 | R +10.6 | R +3 to R +18 | 70,473 | 87,188 | 160,181 | Even | D +0.54 |
| Lexington County | R +33.9 | R +25.7 | R +18 to R +33 | 56,681 | 95,980 | 155,094 | R +0.12 | D +0.69 |
| Berkeley County | R +16.5 | R +6.6 | D +1 to R +14 | 59,996 | 68,536 | 130,588 | D +0.11 | D +1.07 |
| Beaufort County | R +14.7 | R +9.1 | R +2 to R +17 | 48,768 | 58,557 | 108,791 | R +0.24 | D +0.59 |
| Anderson County | R +47.9 | R +42.3 | R +35 to R +50 | 29,515 | 72,781 | 103,668 | R +0.18 | D +0.91 |
| Aiken County | R +26.3 | R +19.4 | R +12 to R +27 | 35,786 | 52,961 | 90,082 | R +0.09 | D +0.62 |
| Dorchester County | R +14.9 | R +4.6 | D +3 to R +12 | 39,530 | 43,309 | 84,391 | D +0.07 | D +0.60 |
| Pickens County | R +53.4 | R +48.8 | R +41 to R +56 | 16,422 | 47,718 | 65,116 | R +0.15 | D +0.72 |
| Florence County | R +8.1 | D +3.9 | D +12 to R +4 | 31,442 | 29,058 | 61,317 | D +0.24 | D +0.06 |
| Lancaster County | R +25.1 | R +18.4 | R +11 to R +26 | 24,553 | 35,655 | 61,002 | R +0.18 | D +1.34 |
| Sumter County | D +5.0 | D +19.0 | D +27 to D +11 | 26,621 | 18,121 | 45,301 | D +0.43 | Even |
| Oconee County | R +52.2 | R +48.5 | R +41 to R +56 | 10,941 | 31,573 | 43,085 | R +0.35 | D +0.86 |
| Georgetown County | R +19.7 | R +13.7 | R +6 to R +21 | 16,010 | 21,078 | 37,558 | R +0.24 | D +0.39 |
| Orangeburg County | D +24.8 | D +38.9 | D +47 to D +30 | 25,094 | 11,040 | 36,514 | D +0.56 | Even |
| Kershaw County | R +28.6 | R +22.0 | R +15 to R +30 | 13,968 | 21,862 | 36,319 | R +0.06 | D +0.96 |
| Laurens County | R +41.3 | R +35.3 | R +28 to R +43 | 10,038 | 20,983 | 31,396 | R +0.09 | D +0.70 |
| Greenwood County | R +29.4 | R +22.3 | R +15 to R +30 | 11,947 | 18,823 | 31,202 | D +0.06 | D +0.17 |
| Darlington County | R +13.5 | R +3.0 | D +5 to R +11 | 14,472 | 15,353 | 30,182 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Cherokee County | R +51.8 | R +48.6 | R +41 to R +56 | 6,455 | 18,679 | 25,376 | R +0.11 | D +0.46 |
| Jasper County | R +9.7 | D +1.3 | D +9 to R +6 | 10,906 | 10,623 | 21,763 | D +0.17 | D +1.32 |
| Newberry County | R +34.8 | R +26.9 | R +19 to R +34 | 6,704 | 11,645 | 18,589 | Even | D +0.46 |
| Chesterfield County | R +28.4 | R +23.8 | R +16 to R +32 | 6,980 | 11,345 | 18,525 | Even | D +0.30 |
| Colleton County | R +18.4 | R +11.3 | R +4 to R +19 | 7,955 | 9,990 | 18,166 | D +0.05 | D +0.15 |
| Clarendon County | R +12.4 | R +2.6 | D +6 to R +11 | 7,715 | 8,121 | 16,015 | D +0.19 | D +0.06 |
| Chester County | R +17.4 | R +11.8 | R +4 to R +20 | 6,830 | 8,656 | 15,667 | Even | D +0.19 |
| Edgefield County | R +32.2 | R +22.5 | R +15 to R +30 | 5,965 | 9,421 | 15,580 | D +0.10 | D +1.31 |
| Williamsburg County | D +22.0 | D +35.4 | D +44 to D +27 | 9,100 | 4,337 | 13,593 | D +0.49 | Even |
| Marion County | D +10.7 | D +23.0 | D +31 to D +15 | 7,801 | 4,881 | 12,832 | D +0.32 | Even |
| Abbeville County | R +42.9 | R +39.5 | R +32 to R +47 | 3,619 | 8,351 | 12,112 | R +0.09 | D +0.35 |
| Union County | R +33.0 | R +29.6 | R +22 to R +38 | 4,128 | 7,604 | 11,849 | R +0.11 | Even |
| Dillon County | R +10.9 | R +0.1 | D +8 to R +8 | 5,703 | 5,713 | 11,518 | D +0.31 | Even |
| Fairfield County | D +13.4 | D +26.6 | D +35 to D +18 | 6,747 | 3,908 | 10,793 | D +0.37 | Even |
| Barnwell County | R +15.7 | R +6.6 | D +2 to R +15 | 4,483 | 5,120 | 9,717 | D +0.18 | D +0.05 |
| Marlboro County | D +2.4 | D +14.6 | D +23 to D +6 | 5,496 | 4,100 | 9,706 | D +0.38 | Even |
| Saluda County | R +44.9 | R +36.5 | R +29 to R +44 | 2,829 | 6,084 | 9,023 | Even | D +0.39 |
| Hampton County | D +6.5 | D +18.0 | D +27 to D +9 | 4,675 | 3,249 | 8,018 | D +0.40 | Even |
| Calhoun County | R +14.5 | R +2.5 | D +5 to R +10 | 3,739 | 3,927 | 7,764 | Even | D +0.10 |
| Lee County | D +18.8 | D +31.9 | D +41 to D +23 | 4,859 | 2,506 | 7,658 | D +0.58 | Even |
| McCormick County | R +17.3 | R +10.1 | R +2 to R +18 | 2,735 | 3,347 | 6,152 | R +0.19 | D +0.62 |
| Bamberg County | D +15.5 | D +27.5 | D +36 to D +19 | 3,435 | 1,952 | 5,452 | D +0.50 | Even |
| Allendale County | D +45.4 | D +58.4 | D +67 to D +49 | 2,157 | 567 | 2,761 | D +0.41 | Even |