2028 forecast · South Carolina · Democratic primary
South Carolina Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
HarrisFavorite, wins 99% of runs
34.0%Harris's projected share
622,621Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 34.0% | 211,642 | 99% | 35.1% |
| Buttigieg | 7.7% | 47,987 | <1% | 7.8% |
| Ossoff | 7.4% | 45,961 | 1% | 7.3% |
| Newsom | 7.0% | 43,733 | <1% | 6.9% |
| Kelly | 4.3% | 26,759 | <1% | 4.2% |
| Shapiro | 3.9% | 24,413 | <1% | 3.9% |
| Beshear | 3.6% | 22,173 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 2.7% | 16,597 | <1% | 2.6% |
| Booker | 2.7% | 16,552 | <1% | 2.5% |
| CrockettHYP | 1.7% | 10,539 | <1% | 1.6% |
| WarnockHYP | 1.6% | 10,120 | <1% | 1.6% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 1.5% | 9,574 | <1% | 1.5% |
| Pritzker | 1.5% | 9,138 | <1% | 1.4% |
| CooperHYP | 1.1% | 7,026 | <1% | 1.1% |
| CubanHYP | 1.1% | 6,782 | <1% | 1.1% |
| MooreHYP | 1.1% | 6,622 | <1% | 1.0% |
| WalzHYP | 0.8% | 5,227 | <1% | 0.8% |
| Rob SandHYP | 0.8% | 5,164 | <1% | 0.8% |
| TalaricoHYP | 0.7% | 4,300 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Whitmer | 0.7% | 4,084 | <1% | 0.6% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.6% | 4,003 | <1% | 0.6% |
| BrownHYP | 0.6% | 3,676 | <1% | 0.6% |
| EmanuelHYP | 0.5% | 3,316 | <1% | 0.5% |
| MurphyHYP | 0.4% | 2,465 | <1% | 0.4% |
| GallegoHYP | 0.3% | 2,066 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareHarrisButtigieg
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in South CarolinaBlack 35.9%, Hispanic 2.8%, Asian and other 1.8%, under 30 13.1%, 65 and up 31%, college graduates 40.9%, women 54.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 539,263 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 622,621 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richland County | 64,886 | Harris | 48.4% | Ossoff | 11.4% |
| Greenville County | 59,262 | Harris | 17.0% | Buttigieg | 14.1% |
| Charleston County | 56,663 | Harris | 18.9% | Buttigieg | 14.6% |
| Horry County | 38,300 | Harris | 18.0% | Buttigieg | 12.7% |
| York County | 35,035 | Harris | 22.0% | Buttigieg | 10.8% |
| Spartanburg County | 33,331 | Harris | 29.4% | Ossoff | 8.4% |
| Lexington County | 30,280 | Harris | 19.5% | Buttigieg | 11.7% |
| Berkeley County | 27,728 | Harris | 30.5% | Ossoff | 8.1% |
| Beaufort County | 23,851 | Buttigieg | 18.2% | Harris | 16.0% |
| Aiken County | 20,122 | Harris | 34.3% | Ossoff | 8.3% |
| Dorchester County | 19,429 | Harris | 34.4% | Ossoff | 9.0% |
| Florence County | 18,316 | Harris | 58.8% | Ossoff | 5.1% |
| Anderson County | 17,829 | Harris | 19.8% | Buttigieg | 10.3% |
| Sumter County | 14,741 | Harris | 62.5% | Ossoff | 6.0% |
| Orangeburg County | 14,071 | Harris | 71.3% | Ossoff | 3.8% |
| Lancaster County | 12,232 | Harris | 28.2% | Newsom | 8.6% |
| Pickens County | 9,621 | Buttigieg | 16.9% | Newsom | 9.3% |
| Georgetown County | 9,202 | Harris | 39.6% | Newsom | 7.0% |
| Darlington County | 8,685 | Harris | 60.2% | Ossoff | 4.3% |
| Kershaw County | 7,839 | Harris | 39.7% | Ossoff | 8.0% |
| Greenwood County | 7,498 | Harris | 43.0% | Ossoff | 8.6% |
| Oconee County | 6,722 | Buttigieg | 19.9% | Newsom | 9.6% |
| Laurens County | 6,356 | Harris | 38.8% | Ossoff | 7.4% |
| Williamsburg County | 5,714 | Harris | 76.3% | Ossoff | 2.0% |
| Jasper County | 5,203 | Harris | 51.9% | Ossoff | 7.4% |
| Clarendon County | 4,921 | Harris | 65.7% | Ossoff | 3.4% |
| Colleton County | 4,857 | Harris | 54.6% | Ossoff | 4.8% |
| Marion County | 4,686 | Harris | 70.9% | Ossoff | 3.5% |
| Cherokee County | 4,581 | Harris | 29.1% | Ossoff | 8.3% |
| Chesterfield County | 4,493 | Harris | 51.4% | Ossoff | 4.9% |
| Newberry County | 4,232 | Harris | 44.0% | Ossoff | 6.0% |
| Chester County | 4,081 | Harris | 54.0% | Ossoff | 4.9% |
| Fairfield County | 4,081 | Harris | 72.2% | Ossoff | 3.5% |
| Dillon County | 3,625 | Harris | 65.2% | Ossoff | 3.8% |
| Edgefield County | 3,406 | Harris | 46.6% | Ossoff | 8.6% |
| Marlboro County | 3,370 | Harris | 69.9% | Ossoff | 2.9% |
| Lee County | 3,095 | Harris | 73.3% | Ossoff | 3.4% |
| Barnwell County | 2,829 | Harris | 61.7% | Ossoff | 5.1% |
| Hampton County | 2,823 | Harris | 68.5% | Ossoff | 4.3% |
| Union County | 2,804 | Harris | 46.8% | Ossoff | 6.0% |
| Abbeville County | 2,577 | Harris | 42.8% | Ossoff | 6.9% |
| Calhoun County | 2,271 | Harris | 60.4% | Ossoff | 4.0% |
| Bamberg County | 2,088 | Harris | 72.3% | Ossoff | 2.7% |
| Saluda County | 1,902 | Harris | 40.7% | Newsom | 6.1% |
| McCormick County | 1,718 | Harris | 63.5% | Ossoff | 3.5% |
| Allendale County | 1,265 | Harris | 76.4% | Ossoff | 2.8% |
OssoffFavorite, wins 43% of runs
13.0%Ossoff's projected share
622,621Projected primary votes
1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ossoff | 13.0% | 81,012 | 43% | 13.3% |
| Newsom | 10.6% | 66,226 | 24% | 10.6% |
| Buttigieg | 10.4% | 64,881 | 23% | 10.6% |
| Kelly | 6.6% | 41,263 | 4% | 6.6% |
| Shapiro | 5.9% | 36,681 | 2% | 5.9% |
| Beshear | 5.8% | 36,111 | 2% | 5.8% |
| Booker | 5.1% | 31,480 | 1% | 5.0% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 3.8% | 23,662 | <1% | 3.8% |
| CrockettHYP | 3.8% | 23,452 | <1% | 3.8% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 3.4% | 21,196 | <1% | 3.4% |
| WarnockHYP | 3.3% | 20,817 | <1% | 3.3% |
| Pritzker | 2.3% | 14,131 | <1% | 2.2% |
| MooreHYP | 2.0% | 12,488 | <1% | 2.0% |
| CooperHYP | 1.9% | 11,631 | <1% | 1.8% |
| CubanHYP | 1.7% | 10,315 | <1% | 1.6% |
| Rob SandHYP | 1.3% | 8,204 | <1% | 1.3% |
| WalzHYP | 1.3% | 7,770 | <1% | 1.2% |
| TalaricoHYP | 1.1% | 6,541 | <1% | 1.0% |
| Whitmer | 1.0% | 6,406 | <1% | 1.0% |
| BrownHYP | 1.0% | 5,970 | <1% | 0.9% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.9% | 5,803 | <1% | 0.9% |
| EmanuelHYP | 0.8% | 4,909 | <1% | 0.8% |
| MurphyHYP | 0.6% | 3,650 | <1% | 0.6% |
| GallegoHYP | 0.5% | 3,263 | <1% | 0.5% |
| KhannaHYP | 0.4% | 2,383 | <1% | 0.4% |
| El-SayedHYP | 0.3% | 2,196 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before South Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareOssoffButtigiegNewsom
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in South CarolinaBlack 35.9%, Hispanic 2.8%, Asian and other 1.8%, under 30 13.1%, 65 and up 31%, college graduates 40.9%, women 54.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 539,263 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 622,621 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richland County | 64,886 | Ossoff | 24.6% | Newsom | 8.3% |
| Greenville County | 59,262 | Buttigieg | 17.3% | Newsom | 12.5% |
| Charleston County | 56,663 | Buttigieg | 18.5% | Newsom | 13.2% |
| Horry County | 38,300 | Buttigieg | 15.9% | Newsom | 12.1% |
| York County | 35,035 | Buttigieg | 14.3% | Newsom | 12.5% |
| Spartanburg County | 33,331 | Ossoff | 12.5% | Newsom | 11.0% |
| Lexington County | 30,280 | Buttigieg | 14.9% | Newsom | 12.1% |
| Berkeley County | 27,728 | Ossoff | 12.2% | Newsom | 11.6% |
| Beaufort County | 23,851 | Buttigieg | 22.1% | Newsom | 13.6% |
| Aiken County | 20,122 | Ossoff | 13.4% | Newsom | 11.7% |
| Dorchester County | 19,429 | Ossoff | 14.5% | Newsom | 11.3% |
| Florence County | 18,316 | Ossoff | 14.7% | Newsom | 8.6% |
| Anderson County | 17,829 | Buttigieg | 13.2% | Newsom | 11.1% |
| Sumter County | 14,741 | Ossoff | 19.8% | Booker | 8.3% |
| Orangeburg County | 14,071 | Ossoff | 18.7% | Crockett | 12.2% |
| Lancaster County | 12,232 | Newsom | 12.6% | Buttigieg | 12.1% |
| Pickens County | 9,621 | Buttigieg | 18.5% | Newsom | 10.3% |
| Georgetown County | 9,202 | Newsom | 12.6% | Buttigieg | 9.6% |
| Darlington County | 8,685 | Ossoff | 13.2% | Newsom | 8.3% |
| Kershaw County | 7,839 | Ossoff | 14.4% | Newsom | 10.3% |
| Greenwood County | 7,498 | Ossoff | 16.4% | Newsom | 9.9% |
| Oconee County | 6,722 | Buttigieg | 22.1% | Newsom | 10.7% |
| Laurens County | 6,356 | Ossoff | 12.9% | Newsom | 9.7% |
| Williamsburg County | 5,714 | Ossoff | 13.7% | Stephen A. Smith | 13.0% |
| Jasper County | 5,203 | Ossoff | 17.6% | Newsom | 10.3% |
| Clarendon County | 4,921 | Ossoff | 12.9% | Stephen A. Smith | 9.6% |
| Colleton County | 4,857 | Ossoff | 12.3% | Beshear | 8.9% |
| Marion County | 4,686 | Ossoff | 16.9% | Stephen A. Smith | 11.2% |
| Cherokee County | 4,581 | Ossoff | 12.3% | Kelly | 9.8% |
| Chesterfield County | 4,493 | Ossoff | 11.5% | Beshear | 9.9% |
| Newberry County | 4,232 | Ossoff | 11.8% | Newsom | 10.6% |
| Chester County | 4,081 | Ossoff | 12.2% | Beshear | 9.1% |
| Fairfield County | 4,081 | Ossoff | 18.2% | Stephen A. Smith | 11.4% |
| Dillon County | 3,625 | Ossoff | 14.0% | Stephen A. Smith | 10.3% |
| Edgefield County | 3,406 | Ossoff | 17.8% | Newsom | 9.5% |
| Marlboro County | 3,370 | Ossoff | 13.3% | Stephen A. Smith | 12.6% |
| Lee County | 3,095 | Ossoff | 18.8% | Stephen A. Smith | 13.3% |
| Barnwell County | 2,829 | Ossoff | 16.3% | Stephen A. Smith | 9.3% |
| Hampton County | 2,823 | Ossoff | 18.6% | Stephen A. Smith | 11.3% |
| Union County | 2,804 | Ossoff | 12.5% | Beshear | 10.3% |
| Abbeville County | 2,577 | Ossoff | 13.2% | Beshear | 9.4% |
| Calhoun County | 2,271 | Ossoff | 12.4% | Newsom | 9.9% |
| Bamberg County | 2,088 | Ossoff | 14.2% | Stephen A. Smith | 12.1% |
| Saluda County | 1,902 | Newsom | 11.2% | Ossoff | 10.4% |
| McCormick County | 1,718 | Ossoff | 12.1% | Beshear | 9.7% |
| Allendale County | 1,265 | Ossoff | 19.2% | Stephen A. Smith | 13.1% |