2028 forecast · Rhode Island · Democratic primary
Rhode Island Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 56.5% | 68,993 | 60% | 10.6% |
| Buttigieg | 10.6% | 12,925 | 14% | 12.4% |
| Newsom | 10.5% | 12,848 | 13% | 12.1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 5.6% | 6,889 | 7% | 7.5% |
| Ossoff | 5.1% | 6,243 | 6% | 7.2% |
| Kelly | 0.4% | 533 | 1% | 7.1% |
| Shapiro | 0.2% | 244 | <1% | 6.9% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Rhode Island votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in Rhode IslandBlack 8.6%, Hispanic 7.3%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 12.2%, 65 and up 33.6%, college graduates 48.8%, women 53.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 103,982 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 122,111 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | 67,736 | Harris | 57.3% | Newsom | 10.4% |
| Kent County | 20,034 | Harris | 56.2% | Buttigieg | 10.8% |
| Washington County | 17,101 | Harris | 55.0% | Buttigieg | 11.6% |
| Newport County | 10,633 | Harris | 55.3% | Buttigieg | 11.4% |
| Bristol County | 6,607 | Harris | 55.1% | Buttigieg | 11.6% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newsom | 26.3% | 32,119 | 30% | 13.8% |
| Ossoff | 22.3% | 27,245 | 23% | 8.4% |
| Buttigieg | 22.0% | 26,871 | 27% | 13.7% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 14.5% | 17,653 | 16% | 8.4% |
| Kelly | 2.3% | 2,770 | 3% | 8.1% |
| Shapiro | 1.1% | 1,280 | 1% | 7.8% |
| Beshear | 0.2% | 283 | <1% | 4.5% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Rhode Island votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in Rhode IslandBlack 8.6%, Hispanic 7.3%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 12.2%, 65 and up 33.6%, college graduates 48.8%, women 53.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 103,982 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 122,111 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | 67,736 | Newsom | 26.4% | Ossoff | 22.6% |
| Kent County | 20,034 | Newsom | 26.3% | Ossoff | 22.2% |
| Washington County | 17,101 | Newsom | 26.1% | Buttigieg | 22.5% |
| Newport County | 10,633 | Newsom | 26.2% | Buttigieg | 22.5% |
| Bristol County | 6,607 | Newsom | 26.2% | Buttigieg | 22.6% |