2028 forecast · Rhode Island · President · 4 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Rhode Island.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +30.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +37.2 and D +23.3. Projected votes: 327,705 Democratic, 175,453 Republican, 10,243 other, 513,401 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +30.32028 margin
D +14.22024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +14.2 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +27.6 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +30.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 510,659 in 2024, 513,403 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Rhode Island| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +32.2 | >99% |
| Harris | D +31.6 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +31.1 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +31.1 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +31.0 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +30.9 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +30.8 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +30.7 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +30.6 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +30.5 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +30.4 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +30.3 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +30.2 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +30.1 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +30.1 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +30.1 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +30.0 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +30.0 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +29.8 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +29.7 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +29.5 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +29.4 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +29.4 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +29.1 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +28.8 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +27.7 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Rhode Island| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +30.6 | >99% |
| Vance | D +30.3 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +30.2 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +30.1 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +30.0 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +29.8 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +29.7 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +29.7 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +29.5 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +29.3 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +29.3 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +29.1 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +28.5 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
5 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | D +14.8 | D +30.8 | D +38 to D +23 | 175,035 | 92,559 | 272,975 | D +0.06 | Even |
| Kent County | D +1.9 | D +17.7 | D +25 to D +10 | 53,764 | 37,595 | 93,151 | R +0.31 | D +0.06 |
| Washington County | D +15.4 | D +30.6 | D +39 to D +23 | 48,973 | 26,035 | 76,631 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Newport County | D +26.1 | D +44.7 | D +53 to D +37 | 30,222 | 11,556 | 42,656 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Bristol County | D +26.9 | D +43.8 | D +52 to D +36 | 19,709 | 7,706 | 27,982 | R +0.28 | Even |