2028 forecast · Oregon · President · 8 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Oregon.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +33.4 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +40.0 and D +26.7. Projected votes: 1,451,342 Democratic, 725,095 Republican, 60,161 other, 2,236,598 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +33.42028 margin
D +14.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +14.8 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +31.3 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +33.4 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,207,592 in 2024, 2,236,599 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Oregon| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +35.2 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +34.7 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +34.4 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +34.3 | >99% |
| Harris | D +34.0 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +34.0 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +33.8 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +33.7 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +33.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +33.4 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +33.3 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +33.1 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +33.0 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +32.9 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +32.7 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +32.7 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +32.7 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +32.4 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +32.1 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +31.9 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +31.8 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +30.2 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Oregon| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +33.9 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +33.9 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +33.6 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +33.6 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +33.5 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +33.5 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| Vance | D +33.4 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +33.4 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +33.3 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +33.3 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +33.1 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
36 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multnomah County | D +64.4 | D +87.2 | D +95 to D +79 | 369,833 | 25,351 | 406,743 | D +0.05 | R +0.07 |
| Washington County | D +35.2 | D +60.7 | D +69 to D +53 | 234,463 | 57,301 | 300,454 | D +0.10 | Even |
| Clackamas County | D +10.0 | D +27.3 | D +35 to D +20 | 149,110 | 85,120 | 240,561 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Lane County | D +23.9 | D +37.3 | D +45 to D +30 | 140,636 | 64,277 | 210,687 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Marion County | R +2.1 | D +15.5 | D +23 to D +8 | 90,081 | 65,922 | 160,245 | Even | D +0.08 |
| Deschutes County | D +10.4 | D +33.8 | D +42 to D +26 | 84,746 | 41,922 | 129,928 | R +0.28 | D +0.16 |
| Jackson County | R +6.6 | D +8.6 | D +16 to D +1 | 62,289 | 52,417 | 117,539 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Linn County | R +25.2 | R +10.1 | R +2 to R +18 | 32,211 | 39,414 | 73,675 | R +0.24 | D +0.28 |
| Douglas County | R +38.6 | R +26.3 | R +18 to R +34 | 21,634 | 37,072 | 60,087 | R +0.39 | D +0.20 |
| Yamhill County | R +6.3 | D +9.1 | D +17 to D +1 | 31,198 | 25,991 | 58,880 | R +0.13 | D +0.08 |
| Benton County | D +41.0 | D +56.3 | D +64 to D +48 | 40,200 | 11,253 | 53,050 | Even | R +0.05 |
| Polk County | R +3.9 | D +10.0 | D +18 to D +2 | 26,458 | 21,634 | 49,424 | R +0.10 | D +0.14 |
| Josephine County | R +29.8 | R +14.9 | R +7 to R +23 | 19,722 | 26,645 | 47,468 | R +0.41 | D +0.10 |
| Klamath County | R +42.9 | R +26.9 | R +19 to R +35 | 12,718 | 22,072 | 35,584 | R +0.23 | D +0.22 |
| Coos County | R +20.5 | R +9.2 | R +1 to R +17 | 15,064 | 18,126 | 34,033 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Columbia County | R +14.4 | R +1.2 | D +7 to R +9 | 15,268 | 15,633 | 31,834 | R +0.28 | D +0.19 |
| Umatilla County | R +38.8 | R +20.5 | R +13 to R +28 | 12,146 | 18,394 | 31,323 | R +0.07 | D +0.10 |
| Lincoln County | D +19.0 | D +32.5 | D +40 to D +25 | 18,533 | 9,441 | 28,741 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Clatsop County | D +11.7 | D +26.1 | D +34 to D +18 | 13,814 | 8,099 | 22,530 | R +0.35 | Even |
| Crook County | R +52.0 | R +34.0 | R +26 to R +42 | 5,538 | 11,246 | 17,139 | R +0.31 | D +1.39 |
| Tillamook County | R +1.4 | D +10.4 | D +18 to D +3 | 8,446 | 6,861 | 15,708 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Union County | R +41.9 | R +31.0 | R +23 to R +39 | 4,881 | 9,261 | 14,527 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Curry County | R +16.6 | R +3.8 | D +4 to R +12 | 6,091 | 6,577 | 12,982 | R +0.55 | Even |
| Wasco County | R +5.9 | D +8.4 | D +16 to D +1 | 6,856 | 5,795 | 13,017 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Hood River County | D +36.9 | D +60.8 | D +69 to D +53 | 9,854 | 2,398 | 12,595 | Even | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +31.0 | R +14.6 | R +7 to R +22 | 5,042 | 6,762 | 12,086 | R +0.05 | D +0.45 |
| Malheur County | R +45.7 | R +25.1 | R +17 to R +33 | 4,005 | 6,689 | 10,971 | R +0.10 | D +0.27 |
| Baker County | R +50.4 | R +35.4 | R +28 to R +43 | 2,934 | 6,152 | 9,295 | R +0.39 | D +0.16 |
| Wallowa County | R +36.3 | R +17.1 | R +10 to R +25 | 2,048 | 2,896 | 5,066 | R +0.45 | D +0.40 |
| Morrow County | R +50.1 | R +31.9 | R +24 to R +40 | 1,595 | 3,089 | 4,821 | Even | D +0.34 |
| Grant County | R +62.2 | R +49.3 | R +41 to R +57 | 1,039 | 3,060 | 4,201 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Harney County | R +61.2 | R +50.5 | R +42 to R +59 | 997 | 3,031 | 4,133 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Lake County | R +66.8 | R +51.3 | R +43 to R +59 | 972 | 3,020 | 4,074 | R +0.21 | D +0.18 |
| Sherman County | R +58.6 | R +47.4 | R +39 to R +56 | 317 | 891 | 1,237 | R +0.18 | D +1.23 |
| Gilliam County | R +46.9 | R +34.8 | R +27 to R +43 | 344 | 710 | 1,081 | R +0.44 | D +0.13 |
| Wheeler County | R +49.2 | R +39.3 | R +31 to R +47 | 242 | 555 | 824 | R +0.45 | D +0.47 |