2028 forecast · Oregon · Democratic primary

Oregon Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 58% of runs

55.5%Harris's projected share

624,817Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	55.5%	346,654	58%	4.7%
Buttigieg	11.2%	70,164	15%	16.9%
Newsom	10.7%	66,533	13%	10.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.9%	36,843	7%	15.1%
Ossoff	5.1%	31,908	6%	6.6%
Kelly	0.4%	2,730	1%	5.9%
Shapiro	0.2%	1,251	<1%	5.9%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Oregon votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Oregon

Progressive45%

Institutional24%

Working class and union16%

Civil rights coalition11%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 3.2%, Hispanic 7.2%, Asian and other 5.1%, under 30 12.1%, 65 and up 33.2%, college graduates 48.5%, women 54.7%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 618,711 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 624,817 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Multnomah County	135,093	Harris	55.3%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Washington County	93,887	Harris	55.0%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Clackamas County	67,633	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Lane County	60,279	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Marion County	42,976	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Deschutes County	34,893	Harris	55.1%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Jackson County	31,018	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Linn County	16,214	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Benton County	15,387	Harris	54.4%	Buttigieg	11.8%
Yamhill County	15,157	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Polk County	12,499	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Douglas County	12,369	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Josephine County	10,647	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Lincoln County	8,427	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Coos County	8,239	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Columbia County	7,521	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Klamath County	7,163	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Umatilla County	6,647	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Clatsop County	6,435	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Tillamook County	4,266	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Hood River County	4,134	Harris	55.3%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Wasco County	3,440	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Curry County	3,342	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Crook County	2,934	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Union County	2,891	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Jefferson County	2,614	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Malheur County	2,201	Harris	56.8%	Newsom	10.4%
Baker County	1,799	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Wallowa County	1,116	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Morrow County	946	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.4%
Harney County	724	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.3%
Grant County	709	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Lake County	651	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Gilliam County	215	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Sherman County	192	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Wheeler County	159	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%

NewsomFavorite, wins 29% of runs

26.1%Newsom's projected share