2028 forecast · Oklahoma · President · 7 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Oklahoma.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +21.2 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +14.6 and R +27.9. Projected votes: 627,890 Democratic, 966,284 Republican, 31,109 other, 1,625,283 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +21.22028 margin
R +34.92024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +34.9 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +18.4 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.7 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.4 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +21.2 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,566,173 in 2024, 1,625,284 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Oklahoma| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| TalaricoHYP | R +19.5 | <1% |
| Buttigieg | R +19.6 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +20.1 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +20.8 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +20.9 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +21.0 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +21.1 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +21.2 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| Harris | R +21.3 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +21.8 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +22.2 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +22.4 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +22.4 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +22.4 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +22.4 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +22.6 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +24.2 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +26.0 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Oklahoma| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +18.7 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +19.9 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +20.1 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +20.3 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +20.5 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| Vance | R +21.2 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
77 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma County | R +1.7 | D +17.6 | D +25 to D +10 | 171,226 | 119,928 | 297,694 | D +0.13 | D +0.10 |
| Tulsa County | R +15.6 | D +1.5 | D +9 to R +6 | 131,572 | 127,713 | 264,853 | Even | D +0.20 |
| Cleveland County | R +15.3 | R +3.4 | D +4 to R +11 | 59,231 | 63,342 | 125,301 | Even | D +0.14 |
| Canadian County | R +41.2 | R +17.9 | R +10 to R +26 | 34,790 | 49,980 | 86,525 | R +0.10 | D +1.90 |
| Rogers County | R +56.0 | R +40.8 | R +33 to R +49 | 14,503 | 34,476 | 49,846 | R +0.11 | D +0.91 |
| Wagoner County | R +50.7 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +41 | 14,054 | 28,221 | 43,032 | R +0.12 | D +1.64 |
| Comanche County | R +23.8 | R +14.0 | R +6 to R +22 | 14,770 | 19,577 | 35,016 | D +0.11 | D +0.06 |
| Creek County | R +56.8 | R +45.9 | R +38 to R +54 | 8,563 | 23,111 | 32,248 | R +0.20 | D +0.64 |
| Payne County | R +26.0 | R +16.1 | R +8 to R +24 | 13,014 | 18,025 | 31,821 | D +0.05 | D +0.11 |
| Pottawatomie County | R +48.4 | R +40.3 | R +33 to R +48 | 8,696 | 20,457 | 29,749 | R +0.15 | D +0.46 |
| Grady County | R +63.6 | R +49.8 | R +42 to R +58 | 6,640 | 19,815 | 26,869 | R +0.19 | D +1.09 |
| Logan County | R +50.1 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +41 | 8,623 | 17,312 | 26,462 | R +0.18 | D +1.32 |
| McClain County | R +61.7 | R +41.6 | R +34 to R +49 | 7,113 | 17,243 | 24,772 | R +0.15 | D +2.30 |
| Muskogee County | R +38.2 | R +33.8 | R +26 to R +42 | 7,959 | 16,075 | 24,451 | Even | D +0.11 |
| Washington County | R +48.8 | R +38.4 | R +31 to R +46 | 7,080 | 15,905 | 23,499 | R +0.21 | D +0.41 |
| Garfield County | R +54.8 | R +42.8 | R +35 to R +51 | 6,029 | 15,065 | 21,495 | R +0.20 | D +0.07 |
| Osage County | R +42.1 | R +35.5 | R +28 to R +43 | 6,552 | 13,757 | 20,659 | R +0.12 | D +0.32 |
| Carter County | R +55.5 | R +46.8 | R +39 to R +55 | 5,151 | 14,225 | 19,659 | R +0.13 | D +0.27 |
| Bryan County | R +59.4 | R +50.8 | R +43 to R +59 | 4,716 | 14,458 | 19,457 | R +0.15 | D +1.48 |
| Le Flore County | R +65.6 | R +60.5 | R +53 to R +69 | 3,747 | 15,215 | 19,219 | R +0.16 | D +0.69 |
| Stephens County | R +64.7 | R +55.7 | R +48 to R +64 | 4,095 | 14,406 | 18,790 | R +0.24 | D +0.59 |
| Cherokee County | R +33.3 | R +25.5 | R +18 to R +33 | 6,863 | 11,560 | 18,800 | D +0.23 | D +0.44 |
| Delaware County | R +61.1 | R +56.1 | R +48 to R +64 | 3,923 | 13,940 | 18,100 | R +0.21 | D +0.71 |
| Mayes County | R +58.6 | R +53.1 | R +45 to R +61 | 4,093 | 13,352 | 17,763 | R +0.11 | D +0.54 |
| Pittsburg County | R +59.9 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 3,820 | 13,148 | 17,231 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Kay County | R +50.2 | R +43.5 | R +36 to R +51 | 4,641 | 11,779 | 16,714 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Sequoyah County | R +62.2 | R +56.6 | R +49 to R +65 | 3,409 | 12,293 | 15,906 | R +0.11 | D +0.65 |
| Lincoln County | R +64.3 | R +54.3 | R +46 to R +62 | 3,585 | 12,107 | 15,959 | R +0.23 | D +0.84 |
| Pontotoc County | R +47.6 | R +38.4 | R +31 to R +46 | 4,634 | 10,422 | 15,359 | R +0.11 | D +0.18 |
| Okmulgee County | R +43.5 | R +38.7 | R +31 to R +47 | 4,361 | 9,872 | 14,493 | R +0.08 | D +0.24 |
| McCurtain County | R +69.7 | R +62.8 | R +55 to R +71 | 2,054 | 9,004 | 11,187 | R +0.07 | D +0.06 |
| Ottawa County | R +54.3 | R +50.1 | R +42 to R +58 | 2,747 | 8,258 | 11,183 | R +0.14 | D +0.14 |
| Garvin County | R +66.8 | R +57.4 | R +50 to R +65 | 2,337 | 8,634 | 11,115 | R +0.17 | D +0.43 |
| Custer County | R +54.3 | R +44.0 | R +36 to R +52 | 2,867 | 7,374 | 10,441 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Caddo County | R +48.1 | R +38.4 | R +31 to R +46 | 2,808 | 6,308 | 9,292 | Even | Even |
| McIntosh County | R +53.5 | R +51.0 | R +43 to R +59 | 2,045 | 6,299 | 8,465 | R +0.25 | D +0.70 |
| Jackson County | R +59.4 | R +45.2 | R +38 to R +53 | 2,173 | 5,762 | 8,084 | R +0.09 | D +0.09 |
| Seminole County | R +50.6 | R +46.4 | R +38 to R +54 | 2,092 | 5,708 | 7,937 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Beckham County | R +71.1 | R +59.1 | R +51 to R +67 | 1,536 | 5,975 | 7,622 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Adair County | R +63.9 | R +58.3 | R +50 to R +67 | 1,511 | 5,739 | 7,365 | D +0.17 | D +0.28 |
| Woodward County | R +73.1 | R +56.8 | R +49 to R +65 | 1,511 | 5,483 | 7,109 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Pawnee County | R +59.9 | R +52.3 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,631 | 5,208 | 6,959 | R +0.22 | D +0.52 |
| Kingfisher County | R +72.3 | R +55.6 | R +48 to R +64 | 1,509 | 5,292 | 6,891 | R +0.14 | D +0.54 |
| Marshall County | R +64.1 | R +57.0 | R +49 to R +65 | 1,427 | 5,216 | 6,723 | R +0.21 | D +0.96 |
| Craig County | R +59.3 | R +54.2 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,379 | 4,641 | 6,123 | R +0.09 | D +0.43 |
| Murray County | R +62.6 | R +55.8 | R +48 to R +64 | 1,257 | 4,427 | 5,791 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Atoka County | R +72.2 | R +66.6 | R +59 to R +75 | 949 | 4,729 | 5,738 | R +0.13 | D +0.58 |
| Choctaw County | R +66.1 | R +62.2 | R +54 to R +70 | 1,024 | 4,394 | 5,480 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Haskell County | R +70.5 | R +67.3 | R +59 to R +75 | 798 | 4,077 | 4,939 | R +0.15 | D +0.41 |
| Texas County | R +69.0 | R +46.3 | R +39 to R +54 | 1,299 | 3,544 | 4,931 | D +0.12 | D +0.34 |
| Noble County | R +58.5 | R +50.6 | R +43 to R +59 | 1,181 | 3,601 | 4,873 | R +0.28 | D +0.09 |
| Hughes County | R +63.7 | R +60.0 | R +52 to R +68 | 915 | 3,663 | 4,654 | R +0.09 | D +0.21 |
| Nowata County | R +68.0 | R +62.6 | R +55 to R +71 | 846 | 3,678 | 4,592 | R +0.10 | D +0.39 |
| Pushmataha County | R +73.5 | R +70.9 | R +63 to R +79 | 659 | 3,865 | 4,584 | R +0.16 | D +0.18 |
| Washita County | R +75.9 | R +63.1 | R +55 to R +71 | 829 | 3,671 | 4,570 | R +0.19 | D +0.07 |
| Love County | R +67.2 | R +60.2 | R +52 to R +68 | 865 | 3,480 | 4,408 | R +0.15 | D +0.90 |
| Johnston County | R +67.0 | R +63.2 | R +55 to R +71 | 772 | 3,428 | 4,275 | R +0.11 | D +0.33 |
| Latimer County | R +66.3 | R +63.4 | R +55 to R +72 | 742 | 3,313 | 4,103 | R +0.11 | D +0.48 |
| Okfuskee County | R +56.6 | R +52.1 | R +44 to R +60 | 934 | 2,970 | 3,963 | R +0.10 | D +0.22 |
| Woods County | R +65.6 | R +57.4 | R +50 to R +65 | 777 | 2,874 | 3,721 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Blaine County | R +64.0 | R +55.3 | R +47 to R +63 | 796 | 2,767 | 3,622 | R +0.17 | D +0.15 |
| Major County | R +80.8 | R +65.8 | R +58 to R +74 | 555 | 2,695 | 3,307 | R +0.17 | D +0.08 |
| Kiowa County | R +59.2 | R +52.2 | R +44 to R +60 | 733 | 2,337 | 3,117 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Coal County | R +72.4 | R +68.7 | R +61 to R +77 | 401 | 2,161 | 2,602 | R +0.09 | D +0.64 |
| Tillman County | R +60.1 | R +51.1 | R +43 to R +59 | 591 | 1,829 | 2,449 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Cotton County | R +68.1 | R +58.2 | R +50 to R +66 | 502 | 1,902 | 2,448 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +72.7 | R +65.8 | R +58 to R +74 | 398 | 1,927 | 2,359 | R +0.20 | D +0.43 |
| Dewey County | R +80.9 | R +71.0 | R +63 to R +79 | 302 | 1,783 | 2,107 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Alfalfa County | R +77.8 | R +62.0 | R +54 to R +70 | 385 | 1,644 | 2,062 | R +0.19 | D +0.09 |
| Grant County | R +71.8 | R +60.7 | R +53 to R +69 | 395 | 1,618 | 2,045 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Beaver County | R +84.9 | R +66.3 | R +59 to R +74 | 338 | 1,670 | 2,034 | R +0.07 | D +0.17 |
| Greer County | R +66.5 | R +55.2 | R +47 to R +63 | 394 | 1,367 | 1,785 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Ellis County | R +77.9 | R +65.6 | R +58 to R +74 | 292 | 1,408 | 1,726 | R +0.18 | D +0.06 |
| Roger Mills County | R +81.3 | R +66.3 | R +59 to R +74 | 271 | 1,336 | 1,630 | R +0.15 | D +0.05 |
| Harper County | R +79.5 | R +62.7 | R +55 to R +70 | 252 | 1,099 | 1,370 | R +0.14 | D +0.22 |
| Cimarron County | R +85.7 | R +69.3 | R +62 to R +77 | 127 | 701 | 837 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Harmon County | R +62.2 | R +51.4 | R +44 to R +59 | 196 | 613 | 817 | R +0.12 | Even |