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2028 forecast · Oklahoma · Democratic primary

Oklahoma Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 45% of runs
23.8%Buttigieg's projected share
323,347Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Buttigieg23.8%76,79245%14.6%
Harris23.1%74,54531%12.0%
Newsom12.6%40,70611%10.2%
Ocasio-Cortez11.4%36,9864%7.4%
Ossoff8.4%27,2972%6.1%
Kelly4.5%14,6854%7.3%
Shapiro3.1%10,1391%5.5%
Beshear1.1%3,5791%4.7%
Whitmer0.6%2,080<1%0.9%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Oklahoma votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
ButtigiegHarris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Oklahoma
Progressive37%
Working class and union19%
Institutional17%
Democratic leaning independents12%
Civil rights coalition7%
Moderate independents3%

Black 13.7%, Hispanic 4.8%, Asian and other 6.1%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 31.6%, college graduates 43.4%, women 54.9%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 304,281 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 323,347 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Oklahoma County80,374Harris29.8%Buttigieg18.6%
Tulsa County62,507Buttigieg24.1%Harris22.4%
Cleveland County27,215Buttigieg28.6%Harris15.5%
Canadian County14,174Buttigieg28.2%Harris18.0%
Comanche County8,492Harris38.3%Buttigieg13.4%
Rogers County7,548Buttigieg31.0%Harris15.2%
Wagoner County6,785Buttigieg27.9%Harris19.0%
Payne County6,218Buttigieg27.3%Ocasio-Cortez23.1%
Muskogee County5,082Harris33.2%Buttigieg16.2%
Pottawatomie County4,978Buttigieg26.1%Harris19.1%
Creek County4,972Buttigieg26.0%Harris20.1%
Logan County4,369Buttigieg28.6%Harris18.3%
Osage County4,285Harris34.9%Buttigieg15.4%
Washington County4,065Buttigieg31.2%Harris16.4%
Grady County3,817Buttigieg28.3%Harris18.1%
Garfield County3,646Buttigieg28.0%Harris18.2%
Cherokee County3,420Buttigieg30.4%Ocasio-Cortez18.7%
Carter County3,385Harris26.9%Buttigieg20.6%
McClain County3,307Buttigieg31.9%Harris14.9%
Kay County2,833Buttigieg26.6%Harris19.2%
Bryan County2,801Buttigieg31.4%Harris15.8%
Okmulgee County2,777Harris30.2%Buttigieg18.0%
Pittsburg County2,751Buttigieg26.0%Harris20.8%
Stephens County2,729Buttigieg28.3%Harris18.9%
Le Flore County2,712Buttigieg24.1%Harris20.6%
Pontotoc County2,687Buttigieg32.2%Harris15.3%
Delaware County2,683Buttigieg29.7%Harris17.9%
Mayes County2,627Buttigieg27.6%Harris17.9%
Sequoyah County2,312Buttigieg24.6%Harris21.3%
Lincoln County2,243Buttigieg25.0%Harris21.2%
Custer County1,770Buttigieg30.0%Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
Ottawa County1,751Buttigieg26.2%Harris18.7%
McCurtain County1,730Harris30.4%Buttigieg17.6%
Caddo County1,727Harris23.5%Buttigieg20.3%
Garvin County1,580Buttigieg26.3%Harris19.7%
Jackson County1,400Buttigieg24.0%Harris22.1%
McIntosh County1,380Harris23.8%Buttigieg23.5%
Seminole County1,380Harris22.9%Buttigieg22.6%
Beckham County1,125Harris29.2%Buttigieg17.5%
Adair County1,030Buttigieg25.5%Harris18.4%
Pawnee County1,025Buttigieg26.6%Harris18.1%
Woodward County991Buttigieg28.5%Harris17.9%
Marshall County969Buttigieg27.1%Harris19.6%
Craig County955Harris23.8%Buttigieg22.1%
Kingfisher County931Buttigieg30.0%Harris16.0%
Choctaw County919Harris37.0%Buttigieg14.8%
Texas County904Harris26.3%Buttigieg18.2%
Murray County877Buttigieg27.9%Harris18.8%
Atoka County791Harris24.0%Buttigieg23.2%
Noble County746Buttigieg28.2%Harris18.3%
Hughes County739Harris27.7%Buttigieg19.3%
Okfuskee County693Harris32.6%Buttigieg16.9%
Haskell County654Buttigieg27.3%Harris19.1%
Nowata County633Buttigieg25.8%Harris19.8%
Love County629Buttigieg23.5%Harris22.7%
Johnston County616Buttigieg26.6%Harris19.8%
Pushmataha County612Buttigieg25.6%Harris21.3%
Washita County603Buttigieg28.6%Harris18.8%
Blaine County597Harris25.8%Buttigieg21.5%
Latimer County561Buttigieg22.7%Harris21.6%
Woods County552Buttigieg31.6%Ocasio-Cortez15.0%
Kiowa County530Harris24.4%Buttigieg22.4%
Tillman County437Harris29.2%Buttigieg19.0%
Major County416Buttigieg29.8%Harris17.8%
Cotton County360Buttigieg29.3%Harris17.9%
Coal County330Buttigieg28.5%Harris17.6%
Jefferson County316Buttigieg26.3%Harris20.5%
Grant County296Buttigieg27.2%Harris20.9%
Greer County291Harris31.2%Buttigieg18.0%
Alfalfa County290Buttigieg25.2%Harris24.0%
Dewey County265Buttigieg30.6%Harris16.5%
Beaver County258Buttigieg27.8%Harris17.0%
Ellis County227Buttigieg29.2%Harris18.2%
Roger Mills County209Buttigieg32.6%Harris16.1%
Harper County188Buttigieg32.2%Harris15.8%
Harmon County155Harris37.3%Buttigieg14.2%
Cimarron County115Buttigieg38.4%Harris13.0%