2028 forecast · New York · President · 28 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry New York.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +26.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +32.9 and D +19.7. Projected votes: 5,050,847 Democratic, 2,945,289 Republican, 47,716 other, 8,043,852 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +26.32028 margin
D +12.72024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +12.7 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +24.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | No change | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +26.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 8,198,094 in 2024, 8,043,853 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
New York| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +28.0 | >99% |
| Harris | D +27.9 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +27.1 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +27.1 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +27.0 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +27.0 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +26.9 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +26.9 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +26.6 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +26.6 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +26.5 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +26.5 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +26.5 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +26.4 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +26.4 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +26.3 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +26.3 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +26.2 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +26.1 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +26.1 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +26.1 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +26.1 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +25.9 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +25.8 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +25.7 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +25.6 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +25.1 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +25.1 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
New York| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +26.7 | >99% |
| Vance | D +26.3 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +26.2 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +26.0 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +25.9 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +25.7 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +25.7 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +25.6 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +25.6 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +24.9 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +24.7 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
62 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings County | D +44.0 | D +63.3 | D +71 to D +56 | 644,915 | 144,844 | 793,569 | D +0.38 | R +0.12 |
| Suffolk County | R +10.0 | D +3.6 | D +11 to R +4 | 391,993 | 364,842 | 761,161 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Nassau County | R +4.2 | D +12.6 | D +20 to D +5 | 392,934 | 304,766 | 701,607 | D +0.15 | D +0.05 |
| Queens County | D +24.6 | D +45.1 | D +53 to D +38 | 470,355 | 177,731 | 651,239 | D +0.54 | Even |
| New York County | D +64.8 | D +87.9 | D +97 to D +80 | 585,980 | 37,587 | 626,798 | D +0.15 | R +0.22 |
| Westchester County | D +26.3 | D +43.4 | D +51 to D +35 | 321,374 | 126,870 | 450,690 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Erie County | D +9.7 | D +19.0 | D +27 to D +11 | 265,955 | 181,061 | 449,974 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Monroe County | D +19.1 | D +27.7 | D +35 to D +20 | 227,585 | 128,876 | 359,079 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Bronx County | D +45.4 | D +65.8 | D +75 to D +57 | 273,781 | 56,530 | 331,712 | D +0.60 | R +0.17 |
| Onondaga County | D +17.3 | D +25.5 | D +33 to D +18 | 139,524 | 82,853 | 223,992 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Richmond County | R +29.8 | R +14.2 | R +7 to R +22 | 83,883 | 111,723 | 196,579 | Even | D +0.11 |
| Orange County | R +8.4 | D +3.1 | D +11 to R +5 | 93,078 | 87,427 | 181,618 | D +0.16 | D +0.15 |
| Rockland County | R +11.8 | D +3.1 | D +11 to R +5 | 78,819 | 74,100 | 153,715 | D +0.18 | D +0.20 |
| Dutchess County | D +5.4 | D +14.9 | D +23 to D +7 | 87,429 | 64,764 | 153,199 | Even | Even |
| Albany County | D +25.8 | D +36.3 | D +44 to D +29 | 102,351 | 47,781 | 151,212 | Even | Even |
| Saratoga County | D +1.8 | D +11.3 | D +19 to D +4 | 73,257 | 58,365 | 132,601 | R +0.31 | D +0.09 |
| Niagara County | R +14.9 | R +7.5 | D +0 to R +15 | 45,862 | 53,272 | 99,798 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Ulster County | D +18.7 | D +26.7 | D +34 to D +19 | 61,543 | 35,629 | 97,850 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Oneida County | R +21.3 | R +14.1 | R +6 to R +22 | 41,592 | 55,254 | 97,532 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Broome County | D +0.4 | D +7.3 | D +15 to R +0 | 47,964 | 41,418 | 90,027 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Rensselaer County | D +1.4 | D +9.8 | D +17 to D +2 | 42,809 | 35,185 | 78,583 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Schenectady County | D +10.8 | D +19.7 | D +27 to D +12 | 43,755 | 29,355 | 73,639 | R +0.07 | D +0.06 |
| Ontario County | R +1.2 | D +6.0 | D +14 to R +2 | 31,399 | 27,866 | 59,727 | R +0.38 | D +0.05 |
| Putnam County | R +13.7 | R +0.7 | D +7 to R +8 | 27,925 | 28,318 | 56,580 | Even | Even |
| Chautauqua County | R +22.0 | R +16.3 | R +9 to R +24 | 22,820 | 31,728 | 54,942 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Oswego County | R +24.2 | R +17.4 | R +9 to R +25 | 22,522 | 31,992 | 54,915 | R +0.34 | D +0.09 |
| Tompkins County | D +50.6 | D +62.3 | D +71 to D +54 | 38,696 | 8,981 | 48,034 | Even | R +0.09 |
| Steuben County | R +31.8 | R +26.5 | R +19 to R +34 | 16,079 | 27,672 | 44,057 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Wayne County | R +23.1 | R +16.5 | R +9 to R +24 | 18,121 | 25,260 | 43,706 | R +0.39 | Even |
| St. Lawrence County | R +18.0 | R +11.6 | R +4 to R +19 | 19,088 | 24,077 | 43,477 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Jefferson County | R +23.6 | R +16.0 | R +8 to R +24 | 17,586 | 24,303 | 42,193 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Chemung County | R +16.8 | R +10.9 | R +3 to R +19 | 15,878 | 19,746 | 35,878 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Clinton County | R +2.2 | D +5.9 | D +14 to R +2 | 18,629 | 16,557 | 35,432 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Cayuga County | R +13.0 | R +7.3 | D +1 to R +15 | 16,180 | 18,729 | 35,160 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Sullivan County | R +16.7 | R +8.1 | R +1 to R +16 | 15,994 | 18,817 | 35,017 | R +0.14 | D +0.13 |
| Warren County | R +4.2 | D +3.1 | D +11 to R +5 | 17,834 | 16,757 | 34,854 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Columbia County | D +14.7 | D +21.3 | D +29 to D +14 | 20,513 | 13,319 | 34,063 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Madison County | R +13.1 | R +6.2 | D +2 to R +14 | 15,701 | 17,774 | 33,736 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Cattaraugus County | R +32.8 | R +27.5 | R +20 to R +36 | 11,950 | 21,030 | 33,218 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Livingston County | R +21.4 | R +13.8 | R +6 to R +22 | 13,428 | 17,711 | 31,365 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Otsego County | R +7.9 | R +1.3 | D +7 to R +9 | 14,700 | 15,084 | 30,009 | R +0.30 | D +0.21 |
| Genesee County | R +34.0 | R +28.1 | R +20 to R +36 | 10,004 | 17,820 | 28,034 | R +0.35 | D +0.06 |
| Herkimer County | R +36.4 | R +29.6 | R +22 to R +38 | 9,774 | 17,985 | 27,948 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Washington County | R +21.2 | R +14.7 | R +7 to R +23 | 11,532 | 15,501 | 27,234 | R +0.42 | Even |
| Greene County | R +17.0 | R +11.6 | R +4 to R +19 | 10,736 | 13,554 | 24,462 | R +0.38 | Even |
| Tioga County | R +22.9 | R +17.2 | R +9 to R +25 | 9,791 | 13,852 | 23,818 | R +0.43 | Even |
| Fulton County | R +35.9 | R +30.0 | R +22 to R +38 | 8,063 | 14,979 | 23,198 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Delaware County | R +19.8 | R +15.5 | R +8 to R +23 | 9,514 | 13,013 | 22,686 | R +0.47 | D +0.09 |
| Cortland County | R +6.4 | D +1.2 | D +9 to R +7 | 11,315 | 11,057 | 22,544 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Chenango County | R +27.2 | R +22.5 | R +15 to R +31 | 8,289 | 13,101 | 21,549 | R +0.46 | Even |
| Montgomery County | R +28.7 | R +21.8 | R +14 to R +30 | 8,025 | 12,508 | 20,675 | R +0.30 | D +0.14 |
| Allegany County | R +43.2 | R +37.9 | R +30 to R +46 | 6,119 | 13,603 | 19,869 | R +0.34 | D +0.15 |
| Franklin County | R +9.0 | R +2.7 | D +5 to R +11 | 9,147 | 9,650 | 18,933 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Wyoming County | R +48.2 | R +43.5 | R +35 to R +52 | 5,194 | 13,207 | 18,528 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Essex County | D +0.5 | D +6.4 | D +14 to R +1 | 9,632 | 8,471 | 18,235 | R +0.50 | Even |
| Orleans County | R +40.5 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +42 | 5,804 | 11,663 | 17,590 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Schoharie County | R +30.5 | R +24.1 | R +16 to R +32 | 6,083 | 9,936 | 16,141 | R +0.38 | D +0.22 |
| Seneca County | R +11.8 | R +7.0 | D +1 to R +15 | 6,679 | 7,682 | 14,471 | R +0.40 | Even |
| Lewis County | R +44.4 | R +39.6 | R +32 to R +48 | 3,844 | 8,894 | 12,825 | R +0.37 | Even |
| Yates County | R +16.2 | R +10.7 | R +3 to R +19 | 4,573 | 5,672 | 10,323 | R +0.47 | Even |
| Schuyler County | R +21.0 | R +15.7 | R +8 to R +24 | 3,728 | 5,116 | 8,909 | R +0.45 | Even |
| Hamilton County | R +29.5 | R +26.3 | R +18 to R +34 | 1,192 | 2,041 | 3,254 | R +0.53 | Even |