2028 forecast · New York · Democratic primary

New York Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 68% of runs

57.6%Harris's projected share

2,012,306Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	57.6%	1,159,270	68%	22.7%
Newsom	10.3%	206,234	11%	9.6%
Buttigieg	9.9%	199,093	9%	8.3%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.5%	110,684	6%	9.7%
Ossoff	5.1%	102,997	6%	8.1%
Kelly	0.4%	8,641	<1%	4.6%
Shapiro	0.2%	4,029	<1%	5.1%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New York votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New York

Progressive35%

Working class and union27%

Institutional26%

Civil rights coalition7%

Democratic leaning independents3%

Black 24.2%, Hispanic 10.4%, Asian and other 5%, under 30 12.1%, 65 and up 32.1%, college graduates 51.7%, women 54.2%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,759,039 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 2,012,306 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Kings County	259,187	Harris	59.7%	Newsom	9.8%
Queens County	202,381	Harris	59.4%	Newsom	9.9%
New York County	177,236	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Nassau County	166,148	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Suffolk County	162,946	Harris	56.6%	Newsom	10.5%
Bronx County	146,682	Harris	61.6%	Newsom	9.3%
Westchester County	123,971	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Erie County	102,563	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.4%
Monroe County	86,065	Harris	56.7%	Newsom	10.4%
Onondaga County	51,318	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Orange County	40,169	Harris	57.9%	Newsom	10.2%
Richmond County	38,912	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Albany County	34,902	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Dutchess County	34,897	Harris	56.9%	Newsom	10.4%
Rockland County	34,244	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Saratoga County	25,929	Harris	55.0%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Ulster County	21,809	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Niagara County	19,366	Harris	56.9%	Newsom	10.4%
Oneida County	18,194	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Broome County	17,946	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Rensselaer County	16,277	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Schenectady County	16,044	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Ontario County	11,678	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Putnam County	11,163	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Tompkins County	10,495	Harris	54.2%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Chautauqua County	9,873	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Oswego County	8,925	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Wayne County	7,662	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
St. Lawrence County	7,650	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Columbia County	7,569	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Jefferson County	7,530	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Steuben County	7,265	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Sullivan County	7,099	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.3%
Chemung County	7,001	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Clinton County	6,941	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Warren County	6,806	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Cayuga County	6,674	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Madison County	6,049	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Livingston County	5,354	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Cattaraugus County	5,338	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Otsego County	5,258	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Washington County	4,960	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Greene County	4,669	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Genesee County	4,540	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Herkimer County	4,420	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Tioga County	4,148	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Cortland County	4,115	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Delaware County	3,973	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Essex County	3,760	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Fulton County	3,711	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Chenango County	3,651	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Franklin County	3,650	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Montgomery County	3,515	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Orleans County	2,854	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Wyoming County	2,802	Harris	57.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Seneca County	2,795	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Allegany County	2,784	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Schoharie County	2,582	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Lewis County	1,838	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Yates County	1,834	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Schuyler County	1,620	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Hamilton County	569	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%

NewsomFavorite, wins 30% of runs

26.3%Newsom's projected share