2028 forecast · Nevada · President · 6 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry Nevada.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +8.1 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +13.7 and D +2.4. Projected votes: 820,220 Democratic, 697,483 Republican, 29,673 other, 1,547,376 in all.
97%Democratic win chance
D +8.12028 margin
R +3.22024 actual
4%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +3.2 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +5.1 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.2 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.1 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +8.1 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,484,840 in 2024, 1,547,377 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Nevada| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Ossoff | D +9.3 | 98% |
| Harris | D +9.3 | 98% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +9.3 | 98% |
| Buttigieg | D +9.0 | 98% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +8.9 | 98% |
| CooperHYP | D +8.8 | 98% |
| Cuban | D +8.8 | 98% |
| GallegoHYP | D +8.7 | 98% |
| BookerHYP | D +8.6 | 97% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +8.5 | 97% |
| BrownHYP | D +8.3 | 97% |
| CrockettHYP | D +8.2 | 97% |
| KellyHYP | D +8.2 | 97% |
| Generic Democrat | D +8.1 | 97% |
| WalzHYP | D +8.0 | 97% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +8.0 | 96% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +7.9 | 96% |
| KhannaHYP | D +7.8 | 96% |
| PolisHYP | D +7.8 | 96% |
| Shapiro | D +7.8 | 96% |
| MurphyHYP | D +7.8 | 96% |
| WarnockHYP | D +7.7 | 96% |
| BeshearHYP | D +7.6 | 96% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +7.3 | 95% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +7.3 | 95% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +7.0 | 94% |
| Newsom | D +7.0 | 94% |
| MooreHYP | D +7.0 | 94% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +5.6 | 90% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Nevada| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +8.5 | 97% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +8.4 | 97% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +8.2 | 97% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +8.2 | 97% |
| KempHYP | D +8.1 | 97% |
| Vance | D +8.1 | 97% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +8.1 | 97% |
| CruzHYP | D +8.0 | 97% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +8.0 | 96% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +7.9 | 96% |
| HaleyHYP | D +7.9 | 96% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +7.9 | 96% |
| Rubio | D +7.2 | 95% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
17 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | D +2.7 | D +15.0 | D +21 to D +9 | 609,037 | 450,349 | 1,078,551 | D +0.38 | D +0.17 |
| Washoe County | D +1.0 | D +10.8 | D +17 to D +5 | 149,039 | 120,036 | 275,389 | D +0.07 | D +0.14 |
| Lyon County | R +45.4 | R +37.6 | R +31 to R +44 | 10,976 | 24,225 | 35,958 | R +0.19 | D +1.11 |
| Douglas County | R +33.6 | R +28.0 | R +22 to R +34 | 12,301 | 21,878 | 34,916 | R +0.36 | D +0.26 |
| Carson City | R +11.6 | R +4.3 | D +2 to R +11 | 14,440 | 15,747 | 30,955 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Nye County | R +43.0 | R +38.1 | R +31 to R +45 | 8,529 | 19,038 | 28,081 | R +0.35 | D +1.26 |
| Elko County | R +57.9 | R +49.2 | R +43 to R +56 | 5,786 | 17,010 | 23,301 | Even | D +0.22 |
| Churchill County | R +51.6 | R +45.9 | R +39 to R +53 | 3,622 | 9,768 | 13,734 | R +0.14 | D +0.23 |
| Humboldt County | R +56.4 | R +48.8 | R +42 to R +55 | 2,029 | 5,894 | 8,098 | R +0.05 | D +0.05 |
| White Pine County | R +58.4 | R +52.8 | R +46 to R +60 | 965 | 3,130 | 4,190 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Storey County | R +39.6 | R +32.9 | R +27 to R +39 | 1,023 | 2,026 | 3,106 | R +0.32 | D +0.49 |
| Lander County | R +63.8 | R +56.0 | R +49 to R +63 | 608 | 2,153 | 2,822 | R +0.08 | D +0.33 |
| Lincoln County | R +74.1 | R +69.2 | R +63 to R +76 | 356 | 1,957 | 2,359 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Pershing County | R +56.1 | R +49.9 | R +43 to R +57 | 548 | 1,642 | 2,234 | R +0.10 | D +0.07 |
| Mineral County | R +36.5 | R +32.0 | R +25 to R +39 | 727 | 1,412 | 2,191 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Eureka County | R +79.5 | R +73.7 | R +67 to R +81 | 132 | 874 | 1,026 | R +0.12 | D +0.13 |
| Esmeralda County | R +67.5 | R +56.9 | R +51 to R +63 | 92 | 336 | 438 | R +0.23 | D +0.16 |