2028 forecast · Nevada · Democratic primary
Nevada Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | 12.9% | 47,626 | 31% | 13.0% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 12.4% | 45,624 | 29% | 12.8% |
| Ossoff | 10.9% | 40,301 | 20% | 11.1% |
| Newsom | 9.3% | 34,249 | 12% | 9.2% |
| Buttigieg | 8.5% | 31,205 | 7% | 8.5% |
| Kelly | 5.7% | 20,941 | 1% | 5.6% |
| Shapiro | 4.7% | 17,483 | <1% | 4.7% |
| Beshear | 3.1% | 11,306 | <1% | 3.0% |
| Pritzker | 2.7% | 9,791 | <1% | 2.6% |
| Booker | 2.4% | 8,847 | <1% | 2.3% |
| TalaricoHYP | 2.0% | 7,435 | <1% | 2.0% |
| WalzHYP | 1.4% | 5,201 | <1% | 1.4% |
| CrockettHYP | 1.2% | 4,295 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Whitmer | 1.1% | 4,045 | <1% | 1.1% |
| GallegoHYP | 1.1% | 3,947 | <1% | 1.0% |
| KhannaHYP | 1.0% | 3,840 | <1% | 1.0% |
| El-SayedHYP | 1.0% | 3,690 | <1% | 1.0% |
| WarnockHYP | 1.0% | 3,659 | <1% | 1.0% |
| CubanHYP | 1.0% | 3,603 | <1% | 0.9% |
| MurphyHYP | 0.9% | 3,426 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Rob SandHYP | 0.9% | 3,396 | <1% | 0.9% |
| CooperHYP | 0.8% | 2,768 | <1% | 0.7% |
| BrownHYP | 0.8% | 2,776 | <1% | 0.7% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 0.7% | 2,467 | <1% | 0.7% |
| MooreHYP | 0.6% | 2,171 | <1% | 0.6% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.6% | 2,177 | <1% | 0.6% |
| PolisHYP | 0.3% | 1,163 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nevada votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in NevadaBlack 18.5%, Hispanic 16.7%, Asian and other 7%, under 30 12.3%, 65 and up 30.4%, college graduates 38.1%, women 54.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 104,883 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 368,727 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | 276,214 | Harris | 15.8% | Ossoff | 12.4% |
| Washoe County | 60,494 | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.7% | Buttigieg | 16.1% |
| Carson City | 6,576 | Buttigieg | 13.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 13.1% |
| Douglas County | 6,285 | Buttigieg | 22.4% | Newsom | 10.2% |
| Lyon County | 5,398 | Ocasio-Cortez | 15.8% | Buttigieg | 10.7% |
| Nye County | 4,502 | Kelly | 11.6% | Harris | 10.6% |
| Elko County | 3,229 | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% | Buttigieg | 11.8% |
| Churchill County | 2,059 | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.2% | Buttigieg | 10.7% |
| Humboldt County | 1,188 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.0% | Buttigieg | 11.6% |
| White Pine County | 672 | Harris | 14.5% | Kelly | 9.1% |
| Storey County | 523 | Buttigieg | 20.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 11.6% |
| Mineral County | 415 | Harris | 11.5% | Kelly | 10.7% |
| Lander County | 357 | Ocasio-Cortez | 15.5% | Buttigieg | 13.1% |
| Pershing County | 352 | Harris | 13.4% | Kelly | 10.1% |
| Lincoln County | 292 | Buttigieg | 14.8% | Newsom | 9.1% |
| Eureka County | 108 | Buttigieg | 15.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.1% |
| Esmeralda County | 63 | Buttigieg | 15.2% | Kelly | 12.1% |
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocasio-Cortez | 14.3% | 52,681 | 39% | 14.8% |
| Ossoff | 13.0% | 47,846 | 29% | 13.2% |
| Newsom | 10.9% | 40,164 | 18% | 10.9% |
| Buttigieg | 9.7% | 35,581 | 11% | 9.7% |
| Kelly | 6.7% | 24,547 | 2% | 6.6% |
| Shapiro | 5.5% | 20,442 | 1% | 5.5% |
| Beshear | 3.6% | 13,266 | <1% | 3.5% |
| Pritzker | 3.1% | 11,516 | <1% | 3.1% |
| Booker | 2.9% | 10,551 | <1% | 2.8% |
| TalaricoHYP | 2.4% | 8,718 | <1% | 2.3% |
| WalzHYP | 1.6% | 6,031 | <1% | 1.6% |
| CrockettHYP | 1.4% | 5,168 | <1% | 1.4% |
| Whitmer | 1.3% | 4,755 | <1% | 1.3% |
| GallegoHYP | 1.3% | 4,666 | <1% | 1.2% |
| KhannaHYP | 1.2% | 4,475 | <1% | 1.2% |
| WarnockHYP | 1.2% | 4,386 | <1% | 1.2% |
| El-SayedHYP | 1.2% | 4,342 | <1% | 1.1% |
| CubanHYP | 1.1% | 4,218 | <1% | 1.1% |
| MurphyHYP | 1.1% | 4,011 | <1% | 1.1% |
| Rob SandHYP | 1.1% | 3,984 | <1% | 1.0% |
| CooperHYP | 0.9% | 3,272 | <1% | 0.9% |
| BrownHYP | 0.9% | 3,255 | <1% | 0.9% |
| Stephen A. SmithHYP | 0.8% | 2,956 | <1% | 0.8% |
| MooreHYP | 0.7% | 2,595 | <1% | 0.7% |
| KlobucharHYP | 0.7% | 2,532 | <1% | 0.7% |
| PolisHYP | 0.4% | 1,353 | <1% | 0.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nevada votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareWho votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in NevadaBlack 18.5%, Hispanic 16.7%, Asian and other 7%, under 30 12.3%, 65 and up 30.4%, college graduates 38.1%, women 54.8%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 104,883 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a primary, and the contest type changed or the count is missing, so the participation model from our dataset sets the turnout: 368,727 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark County | 276,214 | Ossoff | 15.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 13.1% |
| Washoe County | 60,494 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.5% | Buttigieg | 16.8% |
| Carson City | 6,576 | Buttigieg | 14.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 14.0% |
| Douglas County | 6,285 | Buttigieg | 23.4% | Newsom | 10.7% |
| Lyon County | 5,398 | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.9% | Buttigieg | 11.5% |
| Nye County | 4,502 | Kelly | 13.2% | Buttigieg | 10.8% |
| Elko County | 3,229 | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.8% | Buttigieg | 12.4% |
| Churchill County | 2,059 | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.4% | Buttigieg | 11.4% |
| Humboldt County | 1,188 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.1% | Buttigieg | 12.1% |
| White Pine County | 672 | Kelly | 10.9% | Newsom | 9.5% |
| Storey County | 523 | Buttigieg | 21.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 12.1% |
| Mineral County | 415 | Kelly | 12.3% | Ossoff | 10.0% |
| Lander County | 357 | Ocasio-Cortez | 16.2% | Buttigieg | 13.7% |
| Pershing County | 352 | Kelly | 11.9% | Beshear | 9.6% |
| Lincoln County | 292 | Buttigieg | 16.0% | Newsom | 9.8% |
| Eureka County | 108 | Buttigieg | 15.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 10.6% |
| Esmeralda County | 63 | Buttigieg | 16.4% | Kelly | 13.0% |