2028 forecast · New Mexico · Democratic primary

New Mexico Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 62% of runs

56.8%Harris's projected share

271,977Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	56.8%	154,395	62%	12.1%
Newsom	10.5%	28,676	13%	13.3%
Buttigieg	10.3%	27,966	12%	7.5%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.6%	15,345	7%	9.1%
Ossoff	5.1%	13,940	6%	9.1%
Kelly	0.4%	1,191	1%	9.9%
Shapiro	0.2%	544	<1%	4.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Mexico votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New Mexico

Progressive39%

Institutional20%

Working class and union16%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition9%

Moderate independents2%

Black 4%, Hispanic 36.3%, Asian and other 7.2%, under 30 12.5%, 65 and up 33.8%, college graduates 45.2%, women 54.4%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 247,880 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 271,977 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Bernalillo County	100,035	Harris	56.6%	Newsom	10.6%
Doña Ana County	28,235	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.5%
Santa Fe County	28,008	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Sandoval County	23,316	Harris	56.8%	Newsom	10.5%
San Juan County	11,170	Harris	56.8%	Newsom	10.4%
Valencia County	9,407	Harris	57.6%	Newsom	10.4%
McKinley County	6,435	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Otero County	5,857	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.4%
Rio Arriba County	5,586	Harris	57.6%	Newsom	10.4%
Taos County	5,558	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Chaves County	4,964	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.4%
Eddy County	4,720	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.4%
Lea County	4,314	Harris	57.9%	Newsom	10.3%
San Miguel County	4,254	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.4%
Grant County	4,125	Harris	56.9%	Newsom	10.5%
Los Alamos County	3,618	Harris	54.5%	Buttigieg	11.9%
Curry County	3,535	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Cibola County	2,492	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.4%
Lincoln County	2,208	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Luna County	2,197	Harris	58.0%	Newsom	10.3%
Socorro County	2,071	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.4%
Torrance County	1,596	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.3%
Colfax County	1,536	Harris	57.1%	Newsom	10.5%
Roosevelt County	1,385	Harris	56.6%	Newsom	10.5%
Sierra County	1,365	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.4%
Mora County	938	Harris	57.5%	Newsom	10.5%
Quay County	811	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.4%
Guadalupe County	682	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.3%
Hidalgo County	485	Harris	57.4%	Newsom	10.4%
Catron County	455	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Union County	329	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.4%
De Baca County	189	Harris	57.9%	Newsom	10.3%
Harding County	101	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.5%

NewsomFavorite, wins 31% of runs

26.4%Newsom's projected share