2028 forecast · New Mexico · President · 5 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry New Mexico.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +24.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +31.3 and D +16.5. Projected votes: 561,670 Democratic, 344,303 Republican, 20,940 other, 926,913 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +24.02028 margin
D +6.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +6.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +20.3 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.1 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 1.1 toward D | 5.5% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +24.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 923,403 in 2024, 926,915 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
New Mexico| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Ossoff | D +26.6 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +25.9 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +25.6 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +25.5 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +25.5 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +25.5 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +25.4 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +25.0 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +24.4 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +24.3 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +24.2 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +24.2 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +24.1 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +24.0 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +23.9 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +23.9 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +23.8 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +23.8 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +23.7 | >99% |
| Harris | D +23.5 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +23.3 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +23.1 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +23.1 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +22.9 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +22.9 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +22.5 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +21.1 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
New Mexico| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | D +24.9 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +24.8 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +24.5 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +24.1 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +24.1 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +24.1 | >99% |
| Vance | D +24.0 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +24.0 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +23.9 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +23.9 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +23.7 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +23.3 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +21.9 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
33 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo County | D +21.6 | D +41.2 | D +49 to D +33 | 212,527 | 88,437 | 308,614 | D +0.39 | Even |
| Doña Ana County | D +10.0 | D +29.2 | D +39 to D +20 | 57,217 | 31,384 | 90,577 | D +0.76 | D +0.09 |
| Sandoval County | D +5.9 | D +23.4 | D +31 to D +15 | 50,684 | 31,482 | 84,050 | D +0.30 | D +0.21 |
| Santa Fe County | D +50.0 | D +69.4 | D +78 to D +61 | 68,037 | 12,295 | 82,041 | D +0.06 | R +0.09 |
| San Juan County | R +32.5 | R +18.5 | R +11 to R +27 | 21,118 | 30,704 | 53,022 | D +0.43 | Even |
| Valencia County | R +16.7 | D +4.2 | D +13 to R +5 | 18,010 | 16,554 | 35,272 | D +0.50 | D +0.48 |
| Otero County | R +27.6 | R +15.0 | R +7 to R +23 | 10,341 | 13,992 | 24,883 | D +0.22 | D +0.21 |
| McKinley County | D +25.3 | D +42.3 | D +50 to D +34 | 17,255 | 7,004 | 24,953 | D +0.80 | Even |
| Eddy County | R +56.6 | R +38.7 | R +30 to R +47 | 7,162 | 16,223 | 23,735 | D +0.20 | D +0.12 |
| Chaves County | R +45.6 | R +28.0 | R +19 to R +37 | 7,729 | 13,749 | 21,867 | D +0.29 | D +0.07 |
| Lea County | R +62.4 | R +43.2 | R +35 to R +52 | 5,974 | 15,069 | 21,364 | D +0.32 | D +0.31 |
| Taos County | D +48.8 | D +66.7 | D +75 to D +58 | 12,937 | 2,584 | 15,922 | Even | R +0.07 |
| Rio Arriba County | D +19.9 | D +39.7 | D +50 to D +29 | 10,630 | 4,589 | 15,546 | D +0.66 | Even |
| Curry County | R +43.4 | R +27.3 | R +20 to R +35 | 5,419 | 9,491 | 15,204 | D +0.28 | D +0.08 |
| Grant County | D +5.2 | D +15.8 | D +24 to D +8 | 7,632 | 5,550 | 13,487 | Even | Even |
| Los Alamos County | D +31.2 | D +51.7 | D +60 to D +43 | 8,979 | 2,855 | 12,217 | Even | Even |
| San Miguel County | D +28.5 | D +48.4 | D +60 to D +37 | 7,705 | 2,679 | 10,608 | D +0.58 | Even |
| Lincoln County | R +39.2 | R +25.9 | R +18 to R +34 | 3,486 | 5,926 | 9,589 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Cibola County | D +1.6 | D +15.9 | D +24 to D +8 | 5,004 | 3,634 | 8,848 | D +0.69 | Even |
| Luna County | R +19.3 | R +5.7 | D +4 to R +15 | 3,693 | 4,137 | 7,998 | D +0.46 | D +0.05 |
| Torrance County | R +39.0 | R +23.5 | R +15 to R +32 | 2,823 | 4,556 | 7,546 | D +0.09 | D +0.77 |
| Socorro County | R +3.8 | D +9.1 | D +18 to Even | 3,741 | 3,117 | 7,041 | D +0.63 | Even |
| Roosevelt County | R +44.1 | R +31.8 | R +24 to R +40 | 2,257 | 4,367 | 6,764 | D +0.22 | Even |
| Colfax County | R +14.3 | R +2.1 | D +6 to R +10 | 2,659 | 2,770 | 5,550 | Even | Even |
| Sierra County | R +19.7 | R +13.0 | R +5 to R +21 | 2,356 | 3,058 | 5,545 | R +0.43 | D +0.10 |
| Quay County | R +41.8 | R +30.0 | R +22 to R +38 | 1,204 | 2,238 | 3,515 | Even | Even |
| Mora County | D +17.5 | D +38.3 | D +50 to D +27 | 1,584 | 706 | 2,329 | D +0.46 | Even |
| Catron County | R +50.8 | R +42.0 | R +35 to R +50 | 659 | 1,616 | 2,311 | R +0.42 | D +1.11 |
| Guadalupe County | D +0.7 | D +23.6 | D +35 to D +12 | 1,146 | 708 | 1,891 | D +0.83 | Even |
| Hidalgo County | R +23.6 | R +7.6 | D +1 to R +17 | 796 | 927 | 1,745 | D +0.29 | Even |
| Union County | R +53.5 | R +39.6 | R +32 to R +48 | 463 | 1,070 | 1,566 | R +0.05 | Even |
| De Baca County | R +51.8 | R +35.5 | R +25 to R +46 | 272 | 572 | 862 | D +0.47 | Even |
| Harding County | R +39.8 | R +21.2 | R +13 to R +29 | 156 | 240 | 402 | D +0.22 | Even |