2028 forecast · New Jersey · President · 14 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry New Jersey.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +20.5 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +27.1 and D +13.9. Projected votes: 2,542,626 Democratic, 1,678,009 Republican, 75,416 other, 4,296,051 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +20.52028 margin
D +6.02024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +6.0 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +17.4 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.9 toward D | 5.2% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +20.5 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 4,272,725 in 2024, 4,296,052 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
New Jersey| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| BookerHYP | D +24.1 | >99% |
| Buttigieg | D +22.2 | >99% |
| Harris | D +22.1 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +21.5 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +21.4 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +21.1 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +21.1 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +21.0 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +20.9 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +20.8 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +20.7 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +20.7 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +20.6 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +20.6 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +20.5 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +20.4 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +20.3 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +20.3 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +20.2 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +20.2 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +20.2 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +20.1 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +20.0 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +19.9 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +19.7 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +19.5 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +19.1 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +18.2 | >99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
New Jersey| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +20.9 | >99% |
| Vance | D +20.5 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +20.1 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +19.9 | >99% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +19.8 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +19.6 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +19.4 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +19.2 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +19.2 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +18.7 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +18.3 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
21 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bergen County | D +3.5 | D +20.3 | D +28 to D +12 | 270,693 | 179,507 | 458,354 | D +0.16 | D +0.05 |
| Middlesex County | D +8.3 | D +25.1 | D +33 to D +17 | 222,712 | 133,203 | 364,436 | D +0.44 | D +0.05 |
| Monmouth County | R +11.6 | D +1.9 | D +10 to R +6 | 180,893 | 174,084 | 360,914 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Ocean County | R +36.5 | R +26.7 | R +19 to R +34 | 125,445 | 216,937 | 346,943 | R +0.34 | D +0.60 |
| Essex County | D +45.6 | D +66.7 | D +75 to D +59 | 256,741 | 51,269 | 312,303 | D +0.54 | R +0.17 |
| Morris County | R +2.8 | D +11.0 | D +19 to D +3 | 156,949 | 125,867 | 288,060 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Camden County | D +27.8 | D +39.6 | D +47 to D +32 | 173,108 | 74,817 | 251,671 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Union County | D +24.6 | D +43.2 | D +51 to D +35 | 169,127 | 67,141 | 240,168 | D +0.45 | Even |
| Burlington County | D +16.9 | D +26.4 | D +34 to D +19 | 146,705 | 85,376 | 235,477 | D +0.05 | Even |
| Hudson County | D +28.9 | D +51.0 | D +59 to D +43 | 167,070 | 54,267 | 226,304 | D +0.60 | R +0.07 |
| Passaic County | R +3.0 | D +15.4 | D +23 to D +7 | 112,063 | 82,120 | 199,061 | D +0.41 | D +0.13 |
| Somerset County | D +14.3 | D +29.7 | D +38 to D +22 | 113,654 | 61,598 | 179,130 | D +0.22 | Even |
| Gloucester County | R +2.9 | D +5.5 | D +13 to R +2 | 88,833 | 79,636 | 171,215 | R +0.07 | D +0.14 |
| Mercer County | D +34.6 | D +49.2 | D +57 to D +42 | 119,951 | 40,810 | 163,832 | D +0.34 | R +0.08 |
| Atlantic County | R +3.1 | D +6.9 | D +15 to R +1 | 68,258 | 59,421 | 129,687 | D +0.08 | D +0.05 |
| Sussex County | R +25.4 | R +13.5 | R +6 to R +21 | 36,629 | 48,103 | 86,266 | R +0.23 | D +0.21 |
| Hunterdon County | R +6.8 | D +4.0 | D +12 to R +4 | 41,633 | 38,404 | 81,565 | R +0.25 | D +0.10 |
| Warren County | R +21.1 | R +11.6 | R +4 to R +19 | 26,467 | 33,415 | 60,955 | R +0.21 | D +0.20 |
| Cumberland County | R +3.8 | D +7.7 | D +16 to R +0 | 29,916 | 25,664 | 56,293 | D +0.29 | D +0.06 |
| Cape May County | R +19.5 | R +14.0 | R +6 to R +22 | 22,045 | 29,246 | 52,032 | R +0.49 | Even |
| Salem County | R +19.5 | R +11.0 | R +3 to R +19 | 13,723 | 17,111 | 31,351 | R +0.15 | D +0.16 |