2028 forecast · New Jersey · Democratic primary

New Jersey Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 69% of runs

57.9%Harris's projected share

1,125,430Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	57.9%	651,685	69%	22.4%
Newsom	10.2%	114,746	11%	9.9%
Buttigieg	9.8%	110,191	9%	10.6%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.4%	60,394	5%	4.5%
Ossoff	5.1%	57,547	6%	7.6%
Kelly	0.4%	4,814	<1%	5.0%
Shapiro	0.2%	2,253	<1%	5.0%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Jersey votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New Jersey

Progressive32%

Working class and union24%

Institutional22%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 22.3%, Hispanic 11.9%, Asian and other 6.1%, under 30 12.1%, 65 and up 29.8%, college graduates 52.7%, women 54.1%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 958,202 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,125,430 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Essex County	117,979	Harris	61.1%	Newsom	9.5%
Bergen County	114,651	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Middlesex County	97,325	Harris	57.8%	Newsom	10.2%
Monmouth County	81,078	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Union County	78,540	Harris	59.8%	Newsom	9.8%
Camden County	71,274	Harris	59.1%	Newsom	10.0%
Hudson County	70,438	Harris	57.5%	Newsom	10.3%
Morris County	65,855	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.4%
Burlington County	62,437	Harris	58.5%	Newsom	10.1%
Ocean County	61,811	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Passaic County	55,282	Harris	58.6%	Newsom	10.1%
Mercer County	49,402	Harris	58.8%	Newsom	10.0%
Somerset County	47,224	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Gloucester County	38,794	Harris	57.7%	Newsom	10.2%
Atlantic County	32,775	Harris	58.7%	Newsom	10.1%
Hunterdon County	17,763	Harris	55.2%	Buttigieg	11.6%
Sussex County	16,635	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Cumberland County	15,457	Harris	60.2%	Newsom	9.7%
Warren County	12,675	Harris	57.0%	Buttigieg	10.4%
Cape May County	11,059	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Salem County	6,976	Harris	58.9%	Newsom	10.0%

NewsomFavorite, wins 30% of runs

26.3%Newsom's projected share