2028 forecast · New Hampshire · President · 4 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry New Hampshire.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +14.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +19.3 and D +8.6. Projected votes: 474,428 Democratic, 357,959 Republican, 10,783 other, 843,170 in all.
>99%Democratic win chance
D +14.02028 margin
D +2.82024 actual
1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | D +2.8 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +12.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.7 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.1 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +14.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 822,153 in 2024, 843,170 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
New Hampshire| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | D +16.3 | >99% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +15.1 | >99% |
| CooperHYP | D +14.9 | >99% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +14.8 | >99% |
| Harris | D +14.6 | >99% |
| Cuban | D +14.4 | >99% |
| BrownHYP | D +14.3 | >99% |
| BookerHYP | D +14.3 | >99% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +14.2 | >99% |
| WalzHYP | D +14.1 | >99% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +14.1 | >99% |
| MurphyHYP | D +14.1 | >99% |
| Generic Democrat | D +14.0 | >99% |
| KhannaHYP | D +14.0 | >99% |
| PolisHYP | D +14.0 | >99% |
| Ossoff | D +13.9 | >99% |
| KellyHYP | D +13.8 | >99% |
| Shapiro | D +13.8 | >99% |
| BeshearHYP | D +13.7 | >99% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +13.6 | >99% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +13.4 | >99% |
| GallegoHYP | D +13.3 | >99% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +13.1 | >99% |
| CrockettHYP | D +13.0 | >99% |
| WarnockHYP | D +13.0 | >99% |
| Newsom | D +12.9 | >99% |
| MooreHYP | D +12.7 | >99% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +12.2 | >99% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +10.4 | 99% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
New Hampshire| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Tim ScottHYP | D +14.7 | >99% |
| CruzHYP | D +14.5 | >99% |
| CottonHYP | D +14.4 | >99% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +14.3 | >99% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +14.1 | >99% |
| Vance | D +14.0 | >99% |
| Rubio | D +14.0 | >99% |
| KempHYP | D +14.0 | >99% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +14.0 | >99% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +13.9 | >99% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +13.8 | >99% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +13.8 | >99% |
| HaleyHYP | D +13.5 | >99% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
10 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough County | D +2.9 | D +15.1 | D +22 to D +9 | 135,315 | 99,720 | 238,167 | R +0.17 | D +0.05 |
| Rockingham County | R +2.5 | D +10.1 | D +17 to D +4 | 112,552 | 91,919 | 206,933 | R +0.32 | D +0.14 |
| Merrimack County | D +5.3 | D +15.7 | D +22 to D +9 | 54,466 | 39,654 | 95,358 | R +0.30 | D +0.09 |
| Strafford County | D +12.2 | D +22.9 | D +29 to D +16 | 49,244 | 30,916 | 81,267 | R +0.15 | D +0.06 |
| Grafton County | D +20.2 | D +29.9 | D +36 to D +23 | 36,714 | 19,803 | 57,342 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Cheshire County | D +9.9 | D +18.4 | D +25 to D +12 | 27,070 | 18,643 | 46,333 | R +0.37 | D +0.07 |
| Belknap County | R +13.2 | R +3.1 | D +3 to R +10 | 19,567 | 20,837 | 40,865 | R +0.43 | D +0.18 |
| Carroll County | R +1.7 | D +7.1 | D +14 to D +1 | 18,477 | 16,025 | 34,886 | R +0.56 | D +0.27 |
| Sullivan County | R +0.7 | D +7.4 | D +14 to D +1 | 13,330 | 11,493 | 25,176 | R +0.44 | D +0.11 |
| Coos County | R +13.9 | R +7.6 | R +1 to R +14 | 7,688 | 8,945 | 16,828 | R +0.49 | D +0.08 |