2028 forecast · New Hampshire · Democratic primary

New Hampshire Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

ButtigiegFavorite, wins 81% of runs

25.3%Buttigieg's projected share

290,835Projected primary votes

1Calendar window: votes first, with the early states

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Buttigieg	25.3%	73,648	81%	26.2%
Ocasio-Cortez	13.2%	38,241	14%	13.4%
Newsom	9.4%	27,458	4%	9.3%
Shapiro	6.5%	18,744	1%	6.4%
Kelly	5.6%	16,391	<1%	5.5%
Ossoff	3.8%	11,035	<1%	3.8%
Beshear	3.6%	10,580	<1%	3.6%
Harris	2.8%	8,183	<1%	2.7%
Pritzker	2.4%	6,968	<1%	2.3%
WalzHYP	2.1%	5,991	<1%	2.0%
CubanHYP	1.4%	3,969	<1%	1.3%
Booker	1.2%	3,552	<1%	1.2%
TalaricoHYP	1.2%	3,500	<1%	1.2%
KlobucharHYP	1.2%	3,415	<1%	1.1%
KhannaHYP	1.1%	3,333	<1%	1.1%
MurphyHYP	1.1%	3,117	<1%	1.0%
Whitmer	1.0%	3,019	<1%	1.0%
Rob SandHYP	1.0%	2,866	<1%	0.9%
CooperHYP	0.9%	2,572	<1%	0.9%
BrownHYP	0.8%	2,279	<1%	0.8%
El-SayedHYP	0.7%	2,008	<1%	0.7%
PolisHYP	0.5%	1,425	<1%	0.5%
GallegoHYP	0.5%	1,401	<1%	0.5%
EmanuelHYP	0.5%	1,377	<1%	0.5%
WarnockHYP	0.4%	1,130	<1%	0.4%
MooreHYP	0.3%	971	<1%	0.3%
CrockettHYP	0.3%	864	<1%	0.3%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before New Hampshire votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Buttigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in New Hampshire

Progressive33%

Institutional22%

Working class and union22%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition6%

Moderate independents3%

Black 2.2%, Hispanic 2.2%, Asian and other 2.5%, under 30 10.7%, 65 and up 34.7%, college graduates 49.2%, women 54%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 298,377 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 290,835 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Hillsborough County	84,463	Buttigieg	24.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	13.9%
Rockingham County	70,325	Buttigieg	29.1%	Ocasio-Cortez	11.7%
Merrimack County	32,732	Buttigieg	24.5%	Ocasio-Cortez	13.8%
Strafford County	27,497	Buttigieg	21.6%	Ocasio-Cortez	19.6%
Grafton County	20,614	Buttigieg	28.8%	Ocasio-Cortez	15.2%
Cheshire County	16,014	Buttigieg	23.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	12.7%
Belknap County	13,194	Buttigieg	23.7%	Newsom	9.5%
Carroll County	11,814	Buttigieg	27.9%	Newsom	9.8%
Sullivan County	8,551	Buttigieg	21.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	9.2%
Coos County	5,631	Buttigieg	14.3%	Kelly	10.5%