2028 forecast · Nebraska · President · 2 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Nebraska.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +9.3 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +4.1 and R +14.6. Projected votes: 433,395 Democratic, 522,208 Republican, 15,007 other, 970,610 in all.
1%Democratic win chance
R +9.32028 margin
R +20.82024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +20.8 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +8.8 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.6% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +9.3 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 947,159 in 2024, 970,610 projected. |
Congressional district electoral votes
built from counties| District | Margin | D win | D votes | R votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-2 | D +19.1 | >99% | 205,971 | 139,809 |
Nebraska 2 is Douglas County and the western part of Sarpy County. Nebraska 1 and 3 are not shown; both lean Republican.
Democrats against Vance
Nebraska| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +7.5 | 3% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +8.0 | 2% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +8.2 | 2% |
| CooperHYP | R +8.3 | 2% |
| Cuban | R +8.7 | 2% |
| BeshearHYP | R +8.8 | 2% |
| WalzHYP | R +8.9 | 1% |
| Harris | R +8.9 | 1% |
| BookerHYP | R +8.9 | 1% |
| BrownHYP | R +9.0 | 1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +9.0 | 1% |
| KellyHYP | R +9.1 | 1% |
| Ossoff | R +9.2 | 1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +9.3 | 1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +9.3 | 1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +9.3 | 1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +9.3 | 1% |
| PolisHYP | R +9.4 | 1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +9.6 | 1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +9.8 | 1% |
| Shapiro | R +9.9 | 1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +9.9 | 1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +10.1 | 1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +10.1 | 1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +10.2 | 1% |
| MooreHYP | R +10.6 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +10.7 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +11.3 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +13.1 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Nebraska| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CottonHYP | R +8.2 | 2% |
| HaleyHYP | R +8.3 | 2% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +8.4 | 2% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +8.4 | 2% |
| CruzHYP | R +8.6 | 2% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +8.7 | 2% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +8.7 | 2% |
| KempHYP | R +8.7 | 2% |
| Rubio | R +8.7 | 2% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +8.8 | 2% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +8.9 | 1% |
| Vance | R +9.3 | 1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +9.4 | 1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
93 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas County | D +10.3 | D +23.2 | D +30 to D +17 | 171,735 | 107,018 | 283,228 | Even | D +0.05 |
| Lancaster County | D +4.4 | D +13.1 | D +20 to D +7 | 92,480 | 71,019 | 166,419 | R +0.08 | D +0.07 |
| Sarpy County | R +11.8 | D +2.2 | D +9 to R +4 | 55,219 | 52,888 | 109,916 | R +0.10 | D +0.46 |
| Buffalo County | R +45.5 | R +36.2 | R +30 to R +43 | 7,782 | 16,599 | 24,777 | R +0.22 | D +0.26 |
| Hall County | R +38.2 | R +26.8 | R +20 to R +33 | 8,002 | 13,866 | 22,190 | R +0.16 | D +0.29 |
| Dodge County | R +33.0 | R +24.7 | R +18 to R +31 | 6,091 | 10,080 | 16,418 | R +0.35 | D +0.20 |
| Cass County | R +37.8 | R +27.0 | R +20 to R +34 | 5,812 | 10,106 | 16,199 | R +0.34 | D +0.42 |
| Madison County | R +56.7 | R +46.5 | R +40 to R +53 | 4,138 | 11,344 | 15,708 | R +0.22 | D +0.15 |
| Lincoln County | R +55.9 | R +45.7 | R +39 to R +52 | 4,188 | 11,242 | 15,657 | R +0.33 | Even |
| Platte County | R +58.9 | R +47.3 | R +41 to R +54 | 4,045 | 11,317 | 15,541 | R +0.22 | D +0.38 |
| Scotts Bluff County | R +48.2 | R +37.3 | R +31 to R +44 | 4,512 | 9,882 | 14,588 | R +0.30 | D +0.05 |
| Adams County | R +42.2 | R +32.7 | R +26 to R +39 | 4,733 | 9,332 | 14,280 | R +0.31 | D +0.06 |
| Saunders County | R +46.9 | R +35.7 | R +29 to R +42 | 4,497 | 9,487 | 14,187 | R +0.33 | D +0.74 |
| Washington County | R +42.9 | R +31.0 | R +25 to R +37 | 4,309 | 8,179 | 12,676 | R +0.36 | D +0.27 |
| Gage County | R +39.8 | R +35.2 | R +28 to R +42 | 3,416 | 7,126 | 10,713 | R +0.45 | D +0.11 |
| Seward County | R +47.3 | R +39.8 | R +33 to R +46 | 2,826 | 6,563 | 9,542 | R +0.31 | D +0.33 |
| Dawson County | R +50.1 | R +38.4 | R +32 to R +45 | 2,502 | 5,616 | 8,218 | R +0.06 | D +0.38 |
| Otoe County | R +39.3 | R +31.5 | R +25 to R +38 | 2,780 | 5,338 | 8,230 | R +0.39 | D +0.39 |
| York County | R +52.1 | R +43.5 | R +37 to R +50 | 1,984 | 5,041 | 7,143 | R +0.32 | D +0.46 |
| Dakota County | R +30.2 | R +21.1 | R +14 to R +28 | 2,358 | 3,622 | 6,067 | D +0.10 | D +0.17 |
| Custer County | R +73.0 | R +64.1 | R +57 to R +71 | 1,022 | 4,674 | 5,767 | R +0.25 | D +0.09 |
| Saline County | R +33.6 | R +26.5 | R +20 to R +33 | 2,043 | 3,519 | 5,646 | R +0.15 | D +0.17 |
| Hamilton County | R +61.1 | R +51.5 | R +45 to R +58 | 1,347 | 4,203 | 5,629 | R +0.29 | D +0.47 |
| Holt County | R +74.7 | R +65.2 | R +59 to R +72 | 906 | 4,298 | 5,265 | R +0.25 | D +0.11 |
| Red Willow County | R +69.1 | R +59.0 | R +52 to R +66 | 1,034 | 4,018 | 5,115 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Phelps County | R +69.2 | R +58.2 | R +52 to R +65 | 1,023 | 3,866 | 4,951 | R +0.24 | D +0.16 |
| Cedar County | R +71.0 | R +62.7 | R +56 to R +70 | 890 | 3,890 | 4,856 | R +0.26 | D +0.13 |
| Box Butte County | R +57.2 | R +50.3 | R +43 to R +57 | 1,143 | 3,455 | 4,667 | R +0.30 | D +0.07 |
| Butler County | R +60.2 | R +51.0 | R +44 to R +58 | 1,115 | 3,436 | 4,604 | R +0.30 | D +0.33 |
| Cheyenne County | R +64.9 | R +55.4 | R +49 to R +62 | 981 | 3,417 | 4,459 | R +0.29 | D +0.21 |
| Merrick County | R +65.9 | R +56.2 | R +49 to R +63 | 947 | 3,381 | 4,397 | R +0.28 | D +0.56 |
| Wayne County | R +49.9 | R +42.3 | R +36 to R +49 | 1,244 | 3,071 | 4,387 | R +0.20 | D +0.38 |
| Knox County | R +64.1 | R +58.9 | R +52 to R +66 | 875 | 3,384 | 4,318 | R +0.30 | D +0.13 |
| Cuming County | R +60.6 | R +52.6 | R +46 to R +59 | 1,004 | 3,236 | 4,291 | R +0.31 | Even |
| Keith County | R +64.7 | R +55.4 | R +49 to R +62 | 862 | 3,009 | 3,924 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Pierce County | R +76.9 | R +67.9 | R +61 to R +75 | 613 | 3,208 | 3,862 | R +0.20 | D +0.21 |
| Dawes County | R +47.8 | R +40.2 | R +34 to R +47 | 1,140 | 2,671 | 3,881 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Richardson County | R +52.1 | R +46.4 | R +40 to R +53 | 979 | 2,675 | 3,703 | R +0.41 | Even |
| Kearney County | R +58.7 | R +48.4 | R +42 to R +55 | 912 | 2,625 | 3,587 | R +0.33 | D +0.29 |
| Burt County | R +45.6 | R +40.1 | R +34 to R +47 | 1,048 | 2,451 | 3,550 | R +0.43 | D +0.06 |
| Howard County | R +63.4 | R +55.5 | R +49 to R +62 | 769 | 2,685 | 3,500 | R +0.34 | D +0.30 |
| Jefferson County | R +46.0 | R +40.8 | R +34 to R +48 | 1,002 | 2,384 | 3,440 | R +0.45 | D +0.09 |
| Nemaha County | R +45.5 | R +40.7 | R +34 to R +47 | 1,004 | 2,381 | 3,448 | R +0.33 | D +0.15 |
| Antelope County | R +76.9 | R +70.4 | R +64 to R +77 | 498 | 2,865 | 3,391 | R +0.25 | D +0.37 |
| Colfax County | R +51.5 | R +38.3 | R +31 to R +45 | 1,036 | 2,321 | 3,399 | Even | D +0.54 |
| Clay County | R +64.5 | R +54.9 | R +48 to R +62 | 734 | 2,522 | 3,312 | R +0.25 | D +0.22 |
| Cherry County | R +77.0 | R +67.4 | R +61 to R +74 | 490 | 2,521 | 3,049 | R +0.18 | D +0.39 |
| Stanton County | R +67.5 | R +58.7 | R +52 to R +65 | 609 | 2,340 | 2,991 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Boone County | R +66.9 | R +59.1 | R +52 to R +66 | 595 | 2,314 | 2,950 | R +0.30 | D +0.09 |
| Fillmore County | R +55.5 | R +48.8 | R +42 to R +56 | 732 | 2,129 | 2,904 | R +0.39 | Even |
| Polk County | R +64.2 | R +56.1 | R +49 to R +63 | 603 | 2,141 | 2,774 | R +0.31 | D +0.25 |
| Dixon County | R +59.7 | R +51.8 | R +45 to R +58 | 657 | 2,070 | 2,778 | R +0.29 | D +0.30 |
| Thayer County | R +61.4 | R +55.1 | R +48 to R +62 | 599 | 2,067 | 2,700 | R +0.36 | Even |
| Morrill County | R +69.4 | R +59.7 | R +53 to R +66 | 462 | 1,831 | 2,328 | R +0.21 | D +0.10 |
| Furnas County | R +70.2 | R +62.7 | R +56 to R +69 | 425 | 1,855 | 2,299 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Sheridan County | R +70.6 | R +63.8 | R +57 to R +71 | 406 | 1,841 | 2,271 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Valley County | R +64.6 | R +56.5 | R +50 to R +63 | 485 | 1,746 | 2,257 | R +0.34 | D +0.31 |
| Nuckolls County | R +64.3 | R +57.5 | R +51 to R +64 | 453 | 1,683 | 2,162 | R +0.38 | D +0.28 |
| Thurston County | R +7.0 | D +0.6 | D +7 to R +6 | 1,074 | 1,061 | 2,163 | D +0.34 | Even |
| Johnson County | R +41.1 | R +35.1 | R +28 to R +42 | 672 | 1,400 | 2,107 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Nance County | R +61.2 | R +53.4 | R +47 to R +60 | 407 | 1,341 | 1,772 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Chase County | R +78.0 | R +66.6 | R +60 to R +73 | 285 | 1,424 | 1,726 | R +0.20 | D +0.11 |
| Harlan County | R +68.6 | R +60.9 | R +54 to R +68 | 330 | 1,361 | 1,710 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Webster County | R +66.1 | R +60.9 | R +54 to R +68 | 328 | 1,353 | 1,701 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Kimball County | R +67.9 | R +62.6 | R +56 to R +70 | 301 | 1,306 | 1,632 | R +0.30 | D +0.10 |
| Sherman County | R +60.8 | R +57.7 | R +51 to R +65 | 337 | 1,258 | 1,614 | R +0.40 | D +0.07 |
| Brown County | R +75.3 | R +67.6 | R +61 to R +74 | 249 | 1,289 | 1,553 | R +0.25 | D +0.14 |
| Franklin County | R +70.3 | R +63.6 | R +57 to R +70 | 271 | 1,219 | 1,504 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Frontier County | R +73.5 | R +66.6 | R +60 to R +73 | 237 | 1,184 | 1,436 | R +0.26 | D +0.95 |
| Perkins County | R +73.5 | R +64.1 | R +57 to R +71 | 242 | 1,107 | 1,365 | R +0.28 | D +0.17 |
| Hitchcock County | R +78.6 | R +71.2 | R +64 to R +78 | 188 | 1,118 | 1,321 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Pawnee County | R +58.5 | R +54.5 | R +48 to R +61 | 296 | 1,004 | 1,314 | R +0.44 | D +0.07 |
| Greeley County | R +68.6 | R +63.4 | R +57 to R +70 | 215 | 962 | 1,191 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Garden County | R +70.8 | R +66.2 | R +59 to R +73 | 176 | 866 | 1,051 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Gosper County | R +63.4 | R +54.6 | R +48 to R +61 | 235 | 801 | 1,046 | R +0.34 | Even |
| Deuel County | R +69.6 | R +60.6 | R +54 to R +67 | 189 | 774 | 980 | R +0.31 | D +0.43 |
| Boyd County | R +75.3 | R +68.3 | R +61 to R +75 | 150 | 797 | 954 | R +0.29 | D +0.06 |
| Garfield County | R +77.0 | R +72.6 | R +66 to R +79 | 128 | 808 | 943 | R +0.27 | Even |
| Dundy County | R +79.2 | R +71.6 | R +65 to R +78 | 123 | 745 | 874 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Rock County | R +79.5 | R +71.4 | R +65 to R +78 | 115 | 688 | 810 | R +0.24 | D +0.20 |
| Sioux County | R +77.2 | R +72.4 | R +66 to R +79 | 88 | 551 | 645 | R +0.25 | D +0.81 |
| Keya Paha County | R +83.8 | R +74.3 | R +67 to R +81 | 69 | 469 | 540 | R +0.17 | D +0.71 |
| Hayes County | R +92.3 | R +82.3 | R +75 to R +89 | 40 | 415 | 458 | R +0.09 | D +0.19 |
| Wheeler County | R +76.3 | R +69.1 | R +63 to R +76 | 70 | 384 | 459 | R +0.30 | D +0.46 |
| Hooker County | R +74.1 | R +64.9 | R +58 to R +72 | 73 | 345 | 422 | R +0.15 | Even |
| Loup County | R +65.8 | R +53.8 | R +47 to R +60 | 92 | 308 | 402 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Logan County | R +88.5 | R +78.8 | R +72 to R +86 | 41 | 351 | 397 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Thomas County | R +77.6 | R +69.2 | R +63 to R +76 | 56 | 309 | 367 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Banner County | R +82.2 | R +70.9 | R +64 to R +77 | 52 | 306 | 362 | R +0.20 | D +0.37 |
| Grant County | R +91.8 | R +82.1 | R +76 to R +89 | 30 | 306 | 337 | R +0.09 | Even |
| Blaine County | R +74.2 | R +66.1 | R +59 to R +73 | 48 | 237 | 288 | R +0.34 | D +1.31 |
| McPherson County | R +91.4 | R +81.8 | R +75 to R +89 | 24 | 240 | 268 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Arthur County | R +87.9 | R +77.8 | R +71 to R +84 | 28 | 224 | 253 | R +0.13 | Even |