2028 forecast · Nebraska · Democratic primary

Nebraska Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 59% of runs

56.2%Harris's projected share

192,273Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	56.2%	108,068	59%	7.4%
Buttigieg	10.8%	20,704	15%	11.9%
Newsom	10.5%	20,263	13%	11.1%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.7%	11,036	7%	10.8%
Ossoff	5.1%	9,827	6%	6.6%
Kelly	0.4%	837	1%	6.5%
Shapiro	0.2%	385	<1%	6.6%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Nebraska votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Nebraska

Progressive42%

Working class and union18%

Institutional16%

Democratic leaning independents10%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 8.1%, Hispanic 4.9%, Asian and other 2.5%, under 30 13%, 65 and up 31.1%, college graduates 46.6%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 164,582 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 192,273 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Douglas County	68,840	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Lancaster County	35,829	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Sarpy County	22,028	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Hall County	4,332	Harris	57.0%	Newsom	10.4%
Buffalo County	4,046	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Dodge County	2,985	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Cass County	2,777	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Scotts Bluff County	2,519	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Lincoln County	2,507	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Adams County	2,481	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Madison County	2,395	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Platte County	2,384	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Saunders County	2,239	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Washington County	2,145	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Gage County	1,852	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Dawson County	1,580	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.2%
Seward County	1,504	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Otoe County	1,429	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Dakota County	1,304	Harris	58.2%	Newsom	10.2%
York County	1,100	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Saline County	1,058	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Hamilton County	806	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Custer County	749	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Box Butte County	734	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Red Willow County	714	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Holt County	687	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Phelps County	669	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Butler County	665	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Wayne County	659	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Cuming County	654	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Colfax County	653	Harris	58.0%	Newsom	10.2%
Cedar County	635	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Dawes County	634	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Cheyenne County	627	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Richardson County	613	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Knox County	606	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Burt County	594	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Keith County	592	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Merrick County	585	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Jefferson County	583	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Nemaha County	565	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Kearney County	540	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Howard County	495	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Pierce County	474	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Clay County	468	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Fillmore County	453	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Dixon County	427	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Thurston County	426	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Stanton County	415	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Antelope County	408	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Thayer County	404	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Boone County	403	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Johnson County	389	Harris	57.5%	Newsom	10.3%
Polk County	387	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Cherry County	377	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sheridan County	325	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Morrill County	322	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Valley County	319	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Furnas County	317	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Nuckolls County	310	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Nance County	259	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Harlan County	240	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Webster County	239	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sherman County	237	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Kimball County	231	Harris	57.3%	Newsom	10.3%
Chase County	230	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Franklin County	207	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Brown County	201	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Pawnee County	197	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Perkins County	179	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Frontier County	177	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Hitchcock County	167	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Greeley County	161	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Gosper County	159	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Garden County	141	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Deuel County	135	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Boyd County	130	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Garfield County	123	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Dundy County	109	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Rock County	97	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Sioux County	80	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Keya Paha County	60	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Wheeler County	60	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Loup County	59	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Hooker County	55	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Thomas County	49	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Hayes County	48	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Logan County	47	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Banner County	46	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Grant County	37	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Blaine County	36	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Arthur County	31	Harris	55.7%	Buttigieg	11.2%
McPherson County	29	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%

NewsomFavorite, wins 29% of runs

26.2%Newsom's projected share