2028 forecast · North Dakota · President · 3 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry North Dakota.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +21.9 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +14.9 and R +28.9. Projected votes: 142,823 Democratic, 222,772 Republican, 7,073 other, 372,668 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +21.92028 margin
R +37.42024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +37.4 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +20.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.5 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.5 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.3 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +21.9 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 365,059 in 2024, 372,669 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
North Dakota| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +20.2 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +20.8 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| BeshearHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +21.2 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +21.4 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +21.4 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +21.6 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +21.9 | <1% |
| Harris | R +21.9 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +22.0 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +22.1 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +22.1 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +22.1 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +22.2 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +22.3 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +22.4 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +22.6 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +22.6 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +22.8 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +23.1 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +23.1 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +23.3 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +23.4 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +24.2 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +26.3 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
North Dakota| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +19.8 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +20.0 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +20.2 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +20.3 | <1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +20.4 | <1% |
| Rubio | R +20.4 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +20.7 | <1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +20.9 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +21.1 | <1% |
| Vance | R +21.9 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +21.9 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
53 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cass County | R +8.6 | D +2.6 | D +10 to R +5 | 48,091 | 45,655 | 95,740 | R +0.20 | D +0.42 |
| Burleigh County | R +44.0 | R +22.7 | R +15 to R +31 | 20,335 | 32,290 | 53,684 | R +0.20 | D +0.47 |
| Grand Forks County | R +18.5 | R +9.3 | R +2 to R +17 | 13,888 | 16,742 | 31,218 | R +0.17 | D +0.10 |
| Ward County | R +48.2 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +42 | 9,075 | 18,236 | 27,849 | R +0.10 | D +0.07 |
| Morton County | R +54.8 | R +33.6 | R +26 to R +42 | 5,704 | 11,465 | 17,515 | R +0.16 | D +0.48 |
| Williams County | R +69.2 | R +49.5 | R +41 to R +58 | 3,780 | 11,194 | 15,235 | Even | D +0.24 |
| Stark County | R +66.6 | R +46.0 | R +38 to R +54 | 4,037 | 10,924 | 15,209 | R +0.13 | D +0.15 |
| Stutsman County | R +45.5 | R +34.4 | R +26 to R +43 | 3,229 | 6,616 | 10,047 | R +0.23 | D +0.05 |
| Richland County | R +38.6 | R +28.6 | R +21 to R +37 | 2,922 | 5,257 | 8,344 | R +0.24 | D +0.14 |
| McKenzie County | R +70.2 | R +51.7 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,350 | 4,244 | 5,661 | Even | D +0.50 |
| McLean County | R +58.9 | R +40.6 | R +33 to R +49 | 1,586 | 3,755 | 5,424 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Ramsey County | R +40.9 | R +30.7 | R +23 to R +39 | 1,769 | 3,337 | 5,202 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Barnes County | R +36.0 | R +24.5 | R +17 to R +33 | 1,913 | 3,152 | 5,172 | R +0.27 | D +0.08 |
| Mercer County | R +69.9 | R +50.8 | R +43 to R +59 | 1,113 | 3,411 | 4,593 | R +0.16 | D +0.16 |
| Walsh County | R +46.2 | R +28.1 | R +20 to R +36 | 1,528 | 2,724 | 4,345 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Traill County | R +32.2 | R +17.2 | R +9 to R +25 | 1,653 | 2,339 | 4,071 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Rolette County | D +28.5 | D +44.5 | D +53 to D +36 | 2,810 | 1,078 | 3,958 | D +0.71 | Even |
| Mountrail County | R +43.8 | R +30.8 | R +23 to R +39 | 1,334 | 2,521 | 3,917 | D +0.25 | D +0.09 |
| Bottineau County | R +56.3 | R +38.5 | R +31 to R +47 | 1,023 | 2,305 | 3,388 | R +0.20 | D +0.07 |
| Pembina County | R +53.9 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 948 | 2,014 | 3,005 | R +0.18 | D +0.05 |
| McHenry County | R +64.5 | R +45.3 | R +37 to R +54 | 718 | 1,909 | 2,668 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Ransom County | R +28.7 | R +17.6 | R +9 to R +26 | 1,051 | 1,499 | 2,606 | R +0.29 | Even |
| Dickey County | R +53.3 | R +39.0 | R +31 to R +47 | 714 | 1,629 | 2,391 | R +0.22 | D +0.10 |
| Dunn County | R +69.9 | R +53.7 | R +46 to R +62 | 503 | 1,673 | 2,202 | R +0.06 | D +0.16 |
| Wells County | R +63.5 | R +49.4 | R +41 to R +58 | 537 | 1,585 | 2,149 | R +0.23 | Even |
| LaMoure County | R +56.2 | R +39.8 | R +32 to R +48 | 632 | 1,469 | 2,142 | R +0.26 | D +0.17 |
| Sargent County | R +33.3 | R +23.5 | R +15 to R +32 | 741 | 1,197 | 1,977 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Benson County | R +18.8 | R +10.9 | R +3 to R +19 | 851 | 1,059 | 1,947 | D +0.51 | Even |
| Pierce County | R +54.6 | R +39.7 | R +32 to R +48 | 566 | 1,314 | 1,908 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Cavalier County | R +49.7 | R +39.6 | R +31 to R +48 | 566 | 1,310 | 1,905 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Emmons County | R +78.4 | R +59.0 | R +51 to R +67 | 384 | 1,491 | 1,898 | R +0.14 | Even |
| Nelson County | R +32.6 | R +15.3 | R +7 to R +23 | 717 | 977 | 1,728 | R +0.28 | D +0.07 |
| Foster County | R +59.7 | R +42.8 | R +35 to R +51 | 454 | 1,134 | 1,618 | R +0.23 | D +0.11 |
| Bowman County | R +74.0 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 338 | 1,163 | 1,522 | R +0.15 | D +0.05 |
| Kidder County | R +65.4 | R +46.2 | R +38 to R +54 | 373 | 1,013 | 1,405 | R +0.22 | D +0.07 |
| McIntosh County | R +66.3 | R +47.3 | R +39 to R +56 | 349 | 975 | 1,346 | R +0.19 | D +0.10 |
| Hettinger County | R +70.0 | R +53.1 | R +45 to R +61 | 302 | 986 | 1,304 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Griggs County | R +52.4 | R +35.3 | R +27 to R +44 | 402 | 842 | 1,267 | R +0.28 | Even |
| Grant County | R +68.0 | R +48.9 | R +41 to R +57 | 316 | 920 | 1,258 | R +0.19 | D +0.14 |
| Eddy County | R +46.3 | R +28.3 | R +20 to R +36 | 422 | 756 | 1,200 | R +0.20 | D +0.05 |
| Adams County | R +63.5 | R +46.6 | R +38 to R +55 | 314 | 862 | 1,193 | R +0.19 | D +0.34 |
| Renville County | R +69.5 | R +49.8 | R +42 to R +58 | 292 | 874 | 1,193 | R +0.21 | D +0.42 |
| Divide County | R +56.6 | R +38.1 | R +30 to R +46 | 353 | 789 | 1,167 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Oliver County | R +70.7 | R +51.4 | R +43 to R +60 | 263 | 822 | 1,104 | R +0.22 | D +0.25 |
| Towner County | R +46.7 | R +28.9 | R +21 to R +37 | 367 | 666 | 1,056 | R +0.09 | D +0.10 |
| Burke County | R +75.0 | R +58.6 | R +51 to R +67 | 211 | 809 | 1,033 | R +0.09 | D +0.05 |
| Logan County | R +76.9 | R +57.6 | R +50 to R +66 | 215 | 799 | 1,030 | R +0.15 | D +0.06 |
| Golden Valley County | R +74.8 | R +54.0 | R +46 to R +62 | 232 | 778 | 1,026 | R +0.17 | D +0.70 |
| Steele County | R +25.8 | R +12.4 | R +5 to R +21 | 435 | 559 | 1,013 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Sioux County | D +39.3 | D +53.5 | D +62 to D +45 | 687 | 208 | 912 | D +0.64 | Even |
| Sheridan County | R +72.9 | R +54.2 | R +46 to R +63 | 174 | 587 | 771 | R +0.20 | D +0.37 |
| Billings County | R +70.8 | R +52.8 | R +45 to R +61 | 167 | 542 | 720 | R +0.14 | D +1.92 |
| Slope County | R +82.8 | R +63.8 | R +56 to R +72 | 64 | 290 | 357 | R +0.10 | Even |