2028 forecast · North Dakota · Democratic primary
North Dakota Democratic primary
Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.
Ocasio-CortezFavorite, wins 54% of runs
21.0%Ocasio-Cortez's projected share
19,680Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | 21.2% | 4,171 | 26% | 9.8% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | 21.0% | 4,135 | 54% | 18.1% |
| Harris | 15.0% | 2,959 | 1% | 4.2% |
| Newsom | 14.7% | 2,888 | 13% | 10.0% |
| Ossoff | 8.5% | 1,680 | 1% | 6.7% |
| Kelly | 4.3% | 843 | 3% | 7.1% |
| Shapiro | 3.0% | 596 | 2% | 5.8% |
| Beshear | 0.7% | 143 | <1% | 4.2% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareButtigiegOcasio-CortezHarris
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North DakotaBlack 5.2%, Hispanic 4.2%, Asian and other 5.3%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 32.2%, college graduates 38.8%, women 54.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 14,546 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 19,680 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cass County | 5,835 | Buttigieg | 22.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.5% |
| Burleigh County | 2,698 | Buttigieg | 24.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.7% |
| Grand Forks County | 1,900 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.8% | Buttigieg | 21.5% |
| Ward County | 1,496 | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.2% | Harris | 18.3% |
| Morton County | 818 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.2% | Buttigieg | 20.1% |
| Williams County | 664 | Harris | 19.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.8% |
| Stark County | 658 | Buttigieg | 20.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Stutsman County | 510 | Buttigieg | 19.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.4% |
| Richland County | 428 | Buttigieg | 20.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.2% |
| Barnes County | 279 | Buttigieg | 23.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% |
| Ramsey County | 267 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.9% | Buttigieg | 20.6% |
| Rolette County | 255 | Ocasio-Cortez | 32.3% | Buttigieg | 17.9% |
| McLean County | 238 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.9% | Buttigieg | 21.1% |
| McKenzie County | 235 | Harris | 20.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.1% |
| Walsh County | 226 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.3% | Buttigieg | 18.4% |
| Traill County | 224 | Buttigieg | 22.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.2% |
| Mountrail County | 210 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.8% | Buttigieg | 18.9% |
| Mercer County | 181 | Buttigieg | 21.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.4% |
| Bottineau County | 156 | Buttigieg | 23.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.3% |
| Pembina County | 145 | Buttigieg | 20.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Ransom County | 145 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.0% | Buttigieg | 19.0% |
| McHenry County | 116 | Buttigieg | 19.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.9% |
| Dickey County | 114 | Ocasio-Cortez | 25.5% | Buttigieg | 21.7% |
| Benson County | 112 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.8% | Buttigieg | 20.2% |
| Sargent County | 111 | Harris | 19.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% |
| LaMoure County | 95 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.1% | Buttigieg | 20.9% |
| Nelson County | 95 | Buttigieg | 21.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.9% |
| Wells County | 94 | Buttigieg | 21.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.3% |
| Cavalier County | 93 | Buttigieg | 20.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Dunn County | 90 | Buttigieg | 21.4% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.6% |
| Pierce County | 90 | Buttigieg | 22.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.5% |
| Foster County | 75 | Buttigieg | 22.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.0% |
| Emmons County | 70 | Buttigieg | 21.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.5% |
| Bowman County | 63 | Buttigieg | 22.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.2% |
| Sioux County | 61 | Ocasio-Cortez | 28.2% | Buttigieg | 18.6% |
| Eddy County | 60 | Buttigieg | 22.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% |
| Griggs County | 60 | Buttigieg | 22.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.5% |
| Kidder County | 58 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.7% | Buttigieg | 21.3% |
| McIntosh County | 57 | Buttigieg | 21.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.7% |
| Steele County | 56 | Buttigieg | 22.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% |
| Divide County | 55 | Buttigieg | 21.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.4% |
| Towner County | 55 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.7% | Buttigieg | 19.9% |
| Grant County | 52 | Buttigieg | 21.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.7% |
| Adams County | 51 | Buttigieg | 20.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.2% |
| Hettinger County | 51 | Buttigieg | 22.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.6% |
| Renville County | 48 | Buttigieg | 20.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.4% |
| Oliver County | 43 | Buttigieg | 21.3% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Burke County | 42 | Harris | 18.9% | Buttigieg | 18.8% |
| Logan County | 39 | Buttigieg | 22.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.8% |
| Golden Valley County | 37 | Buttigieg | 22.1% | Ocasio-Cortez | 19.5% |
| Sheridan County | 29 | Buttigieg | 21.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 18.9% |
| Billings County | 26 | Ocasio-Cortez | 25.7% | Buttigieg | 22.8% |
| Slope County | 14 | Buttigieg | 24.2% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.3% |
Ocasio-CortezFavorite, wins 57% of runs
23.2%Ocasio-Cortez's projected share
19,680Projected primary votes
3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March
Candidates
4,000 primary runs| Candidate | Share | Votes | Win | Full field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ocasio-Cortez | 23.2% | 4,564 | 57% | 18.9% |
| Buttigieg | 20.8% | 4,101 | 22% | 10.2% |
| Newsom | 16.9% | 3,323 | 13% | 10.5% |
| Ossoff | 12.6% | 2,482 | 2% | 7.1% |
| Kelly | 7.1% | 1,401 | 4% | 7.5% |
| Shapiro | 4.8% | 955 | 1% | 6.1% |
| Beshear | 1.8% | 361 | <1% | 4.4% |
| Booker | 0.8% | 158 | <1% | 2.1% |
| Whitmer | 0.4% | 84 | <1% | 1.3% |
Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Dakota votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.
County leaders
deeper shade, bigger shareOcasio-CortezButtigieg
Who votes in this primary
our national dataset, placed in North DakotaBlack 5.2%, Hispanic 4.2%, Asian and other 5.3%, under 30 11.6%, 65 and up 32.2%, college graduates 38.8%, women 54.7%.
Turnout
projected 2028 votesThe last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 14,546 votes in a caucus. 2028 is modeled as a caucus, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 19,680 votes.
Every county
largest first| County | Votes | Leader | Share | Second | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cass County | 5,835 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.7% | Buttigieg | 21.6% |
| Burleigh County | 2,698 | Buttigieg | 23.5% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.6% |
| Grand Forks County | 1,900 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.0% | Buttigieg | 21.0% |
| Ward County | 1,496 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.7% | Buttigieg | 18.1% |
| Morton County | 818 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.5% | Buttigieg | 20.0% |
| Williams County | 664 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.4% | Newsom | 18.0% |
| Stark County | 658 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.9% | Buttigieg | 20.0% |
| Stutsman County | 510 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% | Buttigieg | 19.7% |
| Richland County | 428 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.3% | Buttigieg | 19.9% |
| Barnes County | 279 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.6% | Buttigieg | 22.4% |
| Ramsey County | 267 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.9% | Buttigieg | 20.1% |
| Rolette County | 255 | Ocasio-Cortez | 35.5% | Buttigieg | 16.4% |
| McLean County | 238 | Ocasio-Cortez | 27.3% | Buttigieg | 20.2% |
| McKenzie County | 235 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.7% | Newsom | 17.4% |
| Walsh County | 226 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.6% | Buttigieg | 18.0% |
| Traill County | 224 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.2% | Buttigieg | 21.6% |
| Mountrail County | 210 | Ocasio-Cortez | 24.2% | Buttigieg | 18.5% |
| Mercer County | 181 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.2% | Buttigieg | 20.7% |
| Bottineau County | 156 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.1% | Buttigieg | 23.0% |
| Pembina County | 145 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.8% | Buttigieg | 19.9% |
| Ransom County | 145 | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.6% | Buttigieg | 18.4% |
| McHenry County | 116 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.0% | Buttigieg | 19.3% |
| Dickey County | 114 | Ocasio-Cortez | 27.9% | Buttigieg | 20.7% |
| Benson County | 112 | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.2% | Buttigieg | 19.5% |
| Sargent County | 111 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.3% | Buttigieg | 17.5% |
| LaMoure County | 95 | Ocasio-Cortez | 26.5% | Buttigieg | 20.1% |
| Nelson County | 95 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.8% | Buttigieg | 21.3% |
| Wells County | 94 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.1% | Buttigieg | 21.1% |
| Cavalier County | 93 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.7% | Buttigieg | 20.4% |
| Dunn County | 90 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.4% | Buttigieg | 20.9% |
| Pierce County | 90 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.4% | Buttigieg | 22.2% |
| Foster County | 75 | Buttigieg | 22.0% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.8% |
| Emmons County | 70 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.3% | Buttigieg | 21.3% |
| Bowman County | 63 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.1% | Buttigieg | 22.1% |
| Sioux County | 61 | Ocasio-Cortez | 31.0% | Buttigieg | 17.4% |
| Eddy County | 60 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.6% | Buttigieg | 21.8% |
| Griggs County | 60 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.3% | Buttigieg | 22.0% |
| Kidder County | 58 | Ocasio-Cortez | 27.1% | Buttigieg | 20.4% |
| McIntosh County | 57 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% | Buttigieg | 20.7% |
| Steele County | 56 | Ocasio-Cortez | 23.5% | Buttigieg | 22.0% |
| Divide County | 55 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.3% | Buttigieg | 21.3% |
| Towner County | 55 | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.7% | Buttigieg | 19.4% |
| Grant County | 52 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% | Buttigieg | 20.8% |
| Adams County | 51 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.1% | Buttigieg | 20.6% |
| Hettinger County | 51 | Buttigieg | 21.6% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.5% |
| Renville County | 48 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.4% | Buttigieg | 20.4% |
| Oliver County | 43 | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% | Buttigieg | 20.9% |
| Burke County | 42 | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.7% | Buttigieg | 19.1% |
| Logan County | 39 | Buttigieg | 21.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.6% |
| Golden Valley County | 37 | Buttigieg | 21.8% | Ocasio-Cortez | 21.3% |
| Sheridan County | 29 | Buttigieg | 20.9% | Ocasio-Cortez | 20.8% |
| Billings County | 26 | Ocasio-Cortez | 28.0% | Buttigieg | 21.8% |
| Slope County | 14 | Buttigieg | 23.7% | Ocasio-Cortez | 22.0% |