2028 forecast · North Carolina · President · 16 electoral votes
The Democrat is very likely to carry North Carolina.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: D +5.7 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +10.6 and D +0.8. Projected votes: 3,136,496 Democratic, 2,797,542 Republican, 75,166 other, 6,009,204 in all.
93%Democratic win chance
D +5.72028 margin
R +3.32024 actual
18%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +3.3 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | D +7.5 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.3 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.8 toward D | 5.5% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.3 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | D +5.7 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 5,679,647 in 2024, 6,009,205 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
North Carolina| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| CooperHYP | D +10.0 | >99% |
| Harris | D +7.0 | 97% |
| Buttigieg | D +6.8 | 96% |
| BookerHYP | D +6.5 | 96% |
| WarnockHYP | D +6.5 | 95% |
| Rob SandHYP | D +6.4 | 95% |
| BeshearHYP | D +6.2 | 95% |
| Cuban | D +6.2 | 95% |
| TalaricoHYP | D +6.2 | 95% |
| Ossoff | D +6.1 | 95% |
| CrockettHYP | D +6.1 | 94% |
| WalzHYP | D +5.8 | 93% |
| Generic Democrat | D +5.7 | 93% |
| WhitmerHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| MurphyHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| KhannaHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| EmanuelHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| PolisHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| PritzkerHYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| BrownHYP | D +5.5 | 93% |
| KellyHYP | D +5.5 | 92% |
| GallegoHYP | D +5.3 | 92% |
| El-SayedHYP | D +5.1 | 91% |
| KlobucharHYP | D +5.0 | 91% |
| Stephen A. Smith | D +4.9 | 90% |
| MooreHYP | D +4.9 | 90% |
| Shapiro | D +4.8 | 89% |
| Newsom | D +3.4 | 81% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | D +2.1 | 71% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
North Carolina| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | D +6.5 | 96% |
| CottonHYP | D +6.3 | 95% |
| DeSantisHYP | D +6.2 | 95% |
| Rand PaulHYP | D +6.2 | 95% |
| YoungkinHYP | D +6.1 | 94% |
| DonaldsHYP | D +6.0 | 94% |
| KempHYP | D +5.9 | 94% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | D +5.9 | 94% |
| CruzHYP | D +5.9 | 94% |
| Rubio | D +5.7 | 93% |
| Vance | D +5.7 | 93% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | D +5.7 | 93% |
| Tim ScottHYP | D +5.6 | 93% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
100 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | D +26.0 | D +39.6 | D +46 to D +33 | 490,106 | 211,967 | 713,968 | D +0.25 | Even |
| Mecklenburg County | D +33.4 | D +48.5 | D +55 to D +42 | 451,477 | 156,770 | 618,093 | D +0.40 | R +0.13 |
| Guilford County | D +22.1 | D +34.1 | D +41 to D +28 | 195,161 | 95,869 | 295,085 | D +0.40 | Even |
| Forsyth County | D +13.3 | D +22.1 | D +28 to D +16 | 127,979 | 81,675 | 212,446 | D +0.20 | D +0.07 |
| Durham County | D +62.9 | D +78.7 | D +86 to D +72 | 167,688 | 19,971 | 190,511 | D +0.30 | R +0.28 |
| Buncombe County | D +25.1 | D +32.6 | D +39 to D +26 | 106,057 | 53,940 | 162,298 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Union County | R +25.5 | R +15.5 | R +9 to R +22 | 63,946 | 87,428 | 153,207 | Even | D +0.83 |
| New Hanover County | D +0.6 | D +7.0 | D +13 to D +1 | 79,339 | 68,978 | 150,220 | R +0.08 | D +0.31 |
| Cumberland County | D +13.6 | D +25.4 | D +32 to D +19 | 89,757 | 53,356 | 145,005 | D +0.63 | Even |
| Johnston County | R +21.8 | R +11.9 | R +6 to R +18 | 62,480 | 79,382 | 143,616 | D +0.07 | D +1.17 |
| Cabarrus County | R +7.8 | D +3.0 | D +9 to R +3 | 66,176 | 62,269 | 130,229 | D +0.14 | D +0.46 |
| Brunswick County | R +25.0 | R +20.3 | R +14 to R +27 | 50,225 | 75,863 | 127,309 | R +0.47 | D +1.91 |
| Gaston County | R +25.2 | R +19.2 | R +13 to R +26 | 50,334 | 74,215 | 125,888 | R +0.06 | D +0.58 |
| Iredell County | R +32.9 | R +25.0 | R +19 to R +31 | 45,188 | 75,382 | 121,903 | R +0.12 | D +1.10 |
| Davidson County | R +47.6 | R +42.9 | R +36 to R +49 | 27,415 | 68,551 | 97,088 | R +0.20 | D +0.76 |
| Alamance County | R +8.3 | R +1.3 | D +5 to R +8 | 46,679 | 47,940 | 95,780 | D +0.12 | D +0.40 |
| Pitt County | D +6.0 | D +15.8 | D +22 to D +9 | 54,616 | 39,751 | 95,510 | D +0.52 | D +0.16 |
| Orange County | D +51.8 | D +61.5 | D +69 to D +55 | 73,717 | 17,547 | 92,525 | D +0.18 | R +0.08 |
| Onslow County | R +36.3 | R +28.8 | R +23 to R +35 | 32,313 | 58,425 | 91,909 | D +0.20 | D +0.51 |
| Catawba County | R +38.3 | R +34.0 | R +28 to R +40 | 29,505 | 59,923 | 90,374 | R +0.18 | D +0.58 |
| Rowan County | R +36.2 | R +31.6 | R +25 to R +38 | 26,446 | 50,908 | 78,154 | R +0.10 | D +0.52 |
| Randolph County | R +57.6 | R +53.2 | R +47 to R +60 | 17,970 | 58,874 | 77,532 | R +0.19 | D +0.49 |
| Harnett County | R +25.4 | R +18.4 | R +12 to R +25 | 28,409 | 41,257 | 70,526 | D +0.10 | D +0.87 |
| Henderson County | R +14.7 | R +8.9 | R +3 to R +15 | 31,569 | 37,702 | 70,151 | R +0.43 | D +0.35 |
| Moore County | R +29.8 | R +23.9 | R +18 to R +30 | 24,665 | 40,143 | 65,504 | R +0.30 | D +0.93 |
| Lincoln County | R +46.1 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 18,194 | 42,050 | 60,815 | R +0.25 | D +1.42 |
| Craven County | R +20.7 | R +16.4 | R +10 to R +23 | 24,126 | 33,612 | 58,400 | Even | D +0.34 |
| Wayne County | R +16.5 | R +9.4 | R +3 to R +16 | 25,193 | 30,404 | 56,147 | D +0.25 | D +0.23 |
| Chatham County | D +12.6 | D +19.7 | D +26 to D +13 | 32,807 | 21,987 | 55,464 | R +0.20 | D +0.20 |
| Nash County | R +1.8 | D +7.8 | D +15 to D +1 | 28,818 | 24,639 | 53,950 | D +0.32 | D +0.19 |
| Cleveland County | R +35.2 | R +33.0 | R +27 to R +40 | 17,599 | 34,973 | 53,026 | R +0.11 | D +0.39 |
| Rockingham County | R +36.2 | R +33.6 | R +27 to R +40 | 16,471 | 33,106 | 50,034 | R +0.16 | D +0.39 |
| Franklin County | R +13.7 | R +6.8 | R +1 to R +13 | 22,587 | 25,870 | 49,016 | D +0.07 | D +1.03 |
| Robeson County | R +27.9 | R +23.0 | R +16 to R +30 | 18,099 | 28,935 | 47,420 | D +0.72 | D +0.21 |
| Carteret County | R +43.5 | R +39.1 | R +33 to R +45 | 13,852 | 31,609 | 45,919 | R +0.39 | D +0.55 |
| Burke County | R +41.5 | R +39.4 | R +33 to R +46 | 13,639 | 31,347 | 45,405 | R +0.31 | D +0.20 |
| Pender County | R +35.3 | R +28.2 | R +22 to R +34 | 15,823 | 28,251 | 44,539 | R +0.18 | D +1.65 |
| Caldwell County | R +53.0 | R +50.9 | R +44 to R +58 | 10,428 | 32,066 | 42,873 | R +0.32 | D +0.15 |
| Wilson County | D +0.4 | D +9.4 | D +16 to D +3 | 21,968 | 18,187 | 40,528 | D +0.32 | D +0.10 |
| Stanly County | R +51.2 | R +48.3 | R +42 to R +55 | 10,110 | 28,981 | 39,437 | R +0.18 | D +1.16 |
| Haywood County | R +25.4 | R +23.2 | R +17 to R +30 | 14,224 | 22,835 | 37,522 | R +0.49 | D +0.25 |
| Surry County | R +53.7 | R +51.8 | R +45 to R +58 | 8,884 | 27,964 | 37,168 | R +0.29 | D +0.21 |
| Watauga County | D +6.1 | D +13.0 | D +20 to D +7 | 20,137 | 15,504 | 36,191 | R +0.11 | Even |
| Wilkes County | R +60.0 | R +59.2 | R +53 to R +66 | 7,207 | 28,142 | 35,647 | R +0.30 | D +0.16 |
| Rutherford County | R +48.1 | R +46.0 | R +40 to R +53 | 9,268 | 25,054 | 34,622 | R +0.29 | D +0.35 |
| Granville County | R +9.5 | R +4.4 | D +2 to R +11 | 15,204 | 16,592 | 32,134 | D +0.15 | Even |
| Lee County | R +17.6 | R +12.7 | R +7 to R +19 | 13,822 | 17,858 | 32,027 | Even | D +0.64 |
| Sampson County | R +30.0 | R +25.8 | R +19 to R +33 | 10,485 | 17,791 | 28,489 | D +0.14 | D +0.30 |
| Davie County | R +47.0 | R +42.1 | R +36 to R +49 | 7,958 | 19,535 | 27,846 | R +0.30 | D +0.86 |
| Stokes County | R +60.0 | R +57.8 | R +51 to R +65 | 5,728 | 21,442 | 27,422 | R +0.30 | D +0.60 |
| Lenoir County | R +6.8 | D +1.1 | D +8 to R +6 | 13,698 | 13,391 | 27,318 | D +0.21 | D +0.10 |
| Columbus County | R +34.1 | R +32.1 | R +25 to R +39 | 8,803 | 17,142 | 26,111 | D +0.07 | Even |
| Beaufort County | R +31.3 | R +29.0 | R +23 to R +35 | 9,147 | 16,606 | 25,968 | R +0.16 | D +0.11 |
| Dare County | R +19.0 | R +13.4 | R +7 to R +20 | 10,713 | 14,039 | 25,048 | R +0.43 | D +0.27 |
| Hoke County | D +6.0 | D +18.2 | D +25 to D +12 | 14,390 | 9,950 | 24,671 | D +0.55 | D +0.23 |
| Edgecombe County | D +22.9 | D +32.7 | D +40 to D +25 | 15,913 | 8,073 | 24,171 | D +0.43 | Even |
| McDowell County | R +49.5 | R +47.2 | R +41 to R +54 | 6,116 | 17,057 | 23,384 | R +0.32 | D +0.21 |
| Duplin County | R +29.1 | R +24.9 | R +18 to R +32 | 8,605 | 14,302 | 23,070 | D +0.09 | D +0.39 |
| Jackson County | R +9.5 | R +5.5 | D +1 to R +12 | 10,795 | 12,046 | 23,205 | R +0.20 | D +0.24 |
| Halifax County | D +17.8 | D +27.0 | D +34 to D +20 | 14,319 | 8,236 | 22,717 | D +0.38 | Even |
| Person County | R +23.9 | R +20.3 | R +14 to R +27 | 8,832 | 13,333 | 22,388 | Even | D +0.33 |
| Macon County | R +38.4 | R +36.5 | R +30 to R +43 | 6,950 | 14,944 | 22,128 | R +0.48 | D +0.73 |
| Pasquotank County | R +4.9 | D +0.6 | D +7 to R +6 | 10,472 | 10,341 | 21,045 | D +0.23 | D +0.20 |
| Alexander County | R +60.3 | R +57.9 | R +51 to R +65 | 4,302 | 16,149 | 20,645 | R +0.25 | D +0.27 |
| Transylvania County | R +12.3 | R +9.8 | R +4 to R +16 | 9,160 | 11,153 | 20,572 | R +0.53 | D +0.28 |
| Yadkin County | R +62.9 | R +59.3 | R +53 to R +66 | 4,124 | 16,137 | 20,459 | R +0.25 | D +0.44 |
| Currituck County | R +48.4 | R +39.8 | R +33 to R +46 | 6,066 | 14,098 | 20,407 | R +0.25 | D +1.85 |
| Vance County | D +13.5 | D +21.8 | D +29 to D +15 | 11,935 | 7,663 | 19,768 | D +0.42 | Even |
| Richmond County | R +21.0 | R +17.7 | R +11 to R +24 | 7,935 | 11,337 | 19,430 | D +0.10 | Even |
| Cherokee County | R +58.0 | R +56.9 | R +50 to R +63 | 3,819 | 13,924 | 17,941 | R +0.42 | D +1.13 |
| Bladen County | R +20.5 | R +17.3 | R +11 to R +24 | 6,823 | 9,671 | 16,608 | D +0.10 | D +0.15 |
| Ashe County | R +44.8 | R +44.0 | R +38 to R +50 | 4,467 | 11,499 | 16,123 | R +0.45 | D +0.50 |
| Scotland County | R +7.0 | R +0.9 | D +6 to R +8 | 7,000 | 7,128 | 14,242 | D +0.40 | Even |
| Madison County | R +23.8 | R +19.9 | R +14 to R +26 | 5,638 | 8,442 | 14,285 | R +0.40 | D +0.53 |
| Montgomery County | R +38.1 | R +36.8 | R +30 to R +43 | 4,132 | 8,946 | 13,192 | R +0.13 | D +0.33 |
| Polk County | R +25.4 | R +23.7 | R +17 to R +30 | 4,957 | 8,029 | 13,111 | R +0.53 | D +0.62 |
| Caswell County | R +24.7 | R +22.4 | R +16 to R +29 | 4,518 | 7,132 | 11,752 | Even | Even |
| Martin County | R +10.4 | R +4.9 | D +2 to R +12 | 5,454 | 6,020 | 11,557 | D +0.12 | Even |
| Yancey County | R +34.8 | R +33.9 | R +28 to R +40 | 3,670 | 7,435 | 11,225 | R +0.48 | D +0.41 |
| Anson County | R +2.5 | D +5.8 | D +13 to R +2 | 5,579 | 4,970 | 10,636 | D +0.34 | Even |
| Warren County | D +19.3 | D +25.9 | D +33 to D +19 | 6,059 | 3,568 | 9,751 | D +0.24 | Even |
| Avery County | R +52.8 | R +50.7 | R +44 to R +57 | 2,296 | 7,016 | 9,394 | R +0.32 | D +0.25 |
| Hertford County | D +27.0 | D +34.7 | D +42 to D +27 | 5,871 | 2,848 | 8,786 | D +0.56 | Even |
| Mitchell County | R +56.3 | R +55.6 | R +49 to R +62 | 1,917 | 6,719 | 8,710 | R +0.38 | D +0.27 |
| Bertie County | D +15.8 | D +22.8 | D +30 to D +15 | 5,240 | 3,296 | 8,595 | D +0.42 | Even |
| Greene County | R +18.2 | R +12.0 | R +5 to R +19 | 3,728 | 4,747 | 8,528 | D +0.26 | D +0.10 |
| Northampton County | D +14.6 | D +20.6 | D +28 to D +13 | 5,071 | 3,337 | 8,466 | D +0.21 | Even |
| Clay County | R +50.4 | R +49.6 | R +43 to R +56 | 1,995 | 5,927 | 7,990 | R +0.47 | D +1.36 |
| Pamlico County | R +32.3 | R +30.9 | R +25 to R +37 | 2,710 | 5,133 | 7,910 | R +0.32 | D +0.48 |
| Perquimans County | R +39.9 | R +39.6 | R +33 to R +46 | 2,271 | 5,248 | 7,612 | R +0.25 | D +0.56 |
| Chowan County | R +22.6 | R +18.7 | R +12 to R +25 | 2,999 | 4,375 | 7,438 | R +0.10 | D +0.28 |
| Swain County | R +24.0 | R +21.7 | R +15 to R +28 | 2,670 | 4,152 | 6,914 | R +0.07 | D +0.05 |
| Camden County | R +51.2 | R +45.6 | R +39 to R +52 | 1,821 | 4,872 | 6,766 | R +0.14 | D +1.04 |
| Alleghany County | R +52.3 | R +51.8 | R +45 to R +58 | 1,552 | 4,884 | 6,495 | R +0.40 | D +0.83 |
| Gates County | R +21.9 | R +18.7 | R +11 to R +26 | 2,275 | 3,321 | 5,653 | Even | Even |
| Washington County | D +6.3 | D +12.1 | D +19 to D +5 | 3,115 | 2,442 | 5,594 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Jones County | R +25.9 | R +22.5 | R +16 to R +29 | 2,125 | 3,362 | 5,534 | R +0.05 | D +0.42 |
| Graham County | R +64.5 | R +63.1 | R +56 to R +70 | 871 | 3,848 | 4,768 | R +0.29 | D +0.46 |
| Hyde County | R +22.3 | R +16.8 | R +10 to R +24 | 959 | 1,345 | 2,326 | R +0.11 | Even |
| Tyrrell County | R +21.7 | R +17.8 | R +11 to R +25 | 724 | 1,038 | 1,778 | R +0.15 | D +0.73 |