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2028 forecast · North Carolina · Democratic primary

North Carolina Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 91% of runs
36.8%Harris's projected share
1,470,585Projected primary votes
2Calendar window: votes second, with Super Tuesday

Candidates

4,000 primary runs
CandidateShareVotesWinFull field
Harris36.8%541,83391%24.9%
Buttigieg14.3%210,3021%7.5%
Ossoff11.1%163,5056%10.0%
Newsom10.1%148,9311%7.7%
Ocasio-Cortez9.6%141,468<1%6.5%
Kelly2.9%42,687<1%3.9%
Shapiro2.4%35,536<1%4.0%
Beshear0.8%11,617<1%2.7%
Whitmer0.6%8,043<1%0.7%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before North Carolina votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share
HarrisButtigiegOcasio-Cortez

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in North Carolina
Progressive35%
Institutional19%
Working class and union19%
Democratic leaning independents11%
Civil rights coalition9%
Moderate independents3%

Black 32.7%, Hispanic 4.5%, Asian and other 3%, under 30 13.9%, 65 and up 28.5%, college graduates 46.9%, women 54.8%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 1,332,382 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 1,470,585 votes.

Every county

largest first
CountyVotesLeaderShareSecondShare
Mecklenburg County190,620Harris39.0%Ossoff14.6%
Wake County189,983Harris22.8%Buttigieg20.3%
Guilford County91,679Harris48.0%Ossoff13.5%
Durham County61,483Harris35.8%Ossoff15.0%
Forsyth County60,054Harris40.1%Ossoff13.0%
Cumberland County47,241Harris61.4%Ossoff10.7%
Buncombe County38,674Buttigieg31.6%Ocasio-Cortez17.3%
New Hanover County33,104Buttigieg24.6%Harris18.9%
Cabarrus County31,113Harris35.5%Buttigieg13.1%
Union County30,774Harris24.1%Buttigieg20.6%
Johnston County29,713Harris38.1%Buttigieg12.2%
Gaston County26,820Harris37.5%Buttigieg12.6%
Pitt County26,818Harris50.3%Ossoff12.7%
Orange County24,093Buttigieg28.0%Ocasio-Cortez22.9%
Alamance County23,241Harris40.8%Ossoff12.4%
Iredell County22,587Harris26.2%Buttigieg20.0%
Brunswick County22,108Harris25.7%Buttigieg22.9%
Nash County16,989Harris68.1%Ossoff7.9%
Davidson County16,391Harris30.2%Buttigieg17.1%
Onslow County16,310Harris24.1%Ocasio-Cortez19.3%
Catawba County16,175Harris24.8%Buttigieg20.6%
Rowan County15,638Harris37.9%Buttigieg12.4%
Wayne County15,260Harris59.9%Ossoff9.3%
Harnett County15,219Harris42.7%Ossoff12.7%
Henderson County14,205Buttigieg30.5%Harris16.4%
Chatham County13,394Buttigieg25.5%Harris20.9%
Craven County13,130Harris40.0%Ossoff11.8%
Wilson County12,825Harris66.3%Ossoff8.3%
Moore County12,527Buttigieg24.7%Harris22.3%
Robeson County12,170Harris60.0%Ossoff10.1%
Randolph County11,708Harris26.9%Buttigieg18.5%
Franklin County11,078Harris47.8%Ossoff11.5%
Cleveland County10,838Harris39.9%Buttigieg11.8%
Rockingham County10,439Harris46.4%Ossoff10.3%
Edgecombe County9,508Harris77.1%Ossoff5.2%
Lincoln County9,479Buttigieg23.2%Harris21.6%
Granville County9,191Harris55.6%Ossoff11.3%
Halifax County8,953Harris76.4%Ossoff5.3%
Lenoir County8,579Harris69.9%Ossoff7.1%
Burke County7,965Harris25.3%Buttigieg20.3%
Pender County7,860Harris29.5%Buttigieg17.9%
Carteret County7,853Buttigieg28.4%Harris18.8%
Hoke County7,472Harris63.5%Ossoff9.6%
Lee County7,294Harris41.2%Ossoff11.6%
Watauga County7,209Ocasio-Cortez31.0%Buttigieg27.5%
Vance County7,173Harris73.0%Ossoff6.7%
Sampson County7,145Harris58.4%Ossoff9.4%
Haywood County6,874Buttigieg30.5%Harris15.7%
Caldwell County6,673Harris23.8%Buttigieg21.8%
Columbus County6,345Harris59.4%Ossoff9.2%
Stanly County6,292Harris31.7%Buttigieg15.6%
Beaufort County6,105Harris50.9%Ossoff9.2%
Pasquotank County5,985Harris58.7%Ossoff9.9%
Rutherford County5,865Harris27.3%Buttigieg18.9%
Surry County5,761Buttigieg22.7%Harris21.4%
Duplin County5,707Harris55.9%Ossoff9.3%
Person County5,411Harris52.5%Ossoff10.9%
Richmond County5,236Harris60.0%Ossoff9.2%
Wilkes County5,186Harris23.9%Buttigieg21.0%
Dare County5,030Buttigieg34.8%Harris13.7%
Bladen County4,660Harris63.8%Ossoff8.9%
Scotland County4,486Harris67.3%Ossoff8.2%
Davie County4,457Buttigieg23.4%Harris21.7%
Jackson County4,362Buttigieg28.9%Ocasio-Cortez19.0%
Transylvania County4,203Buttigieg33.5%Harris14.7%
Hertford County3,908Harris77.5%Ossoff5.2%
Stokes County3,845Buttigieg21.9%Harris21.8%
Martin County3,732Harris71.9%Ossoff6.2%
McDowell County3,703Harris22.7%Buttigieg21.6%
Macon County3,693Buttigieg28.5%Harris17.8%
Bertie County3,677Harris79.4%Ossoff4.2%
Warren County3,631Harris74.6%Ossoff6.1%
Anson County3,599Harris73.3%Ossoff7.1%
Northampton County3,482Harris78.1%Ossoff4.7%
Caswell County3,146Harris60.7%Ossoff9.6%
Currituck County3,040Buttigieg24.7%Harris20.5%
Alexander County2,993Harris25.7%Buttigieg19.4%
Yadkin County2,780Buttigieg23.3%Harris20.6%
Montgomery County2,769Harris44.0%Buttigieg10.4%
Ashe County2,578Buttigieg28.6%Harris17.5%
Cherokee County2,523Buttigieg27.1%Harris19.9%
Polk County2,521Buttigieg29.5%Harris18.6%
Madison County2,481Buttigieg30.0%Ocasio-Cortez18.1%
Greene County2,391Harris65.2%Ossoff8.4%
Chowan County2,041Harris61.5%Ossoff8.1%
Washington County2,040Harris75.1%Ossoff5.4%
Yancey County1,920Buttigieg28.0%Harris17.6%
Pamlico County1,720Harris42.6%Buttigieg11.8%
Perquimans County1,634Harris50.7%Buttigieg8.7%
Gates County1,558Harris65.7%Ossoff7.7%
Avery County1,467Buttigieg25.7%Harris19.7%
Jones County1,406Harris60.7%Ossoff8.4%
Swain County1,308Buttigieg24.3%Harris18.7%
Mitchell County1,254Buttigieg27.7%Harris16.5%
Clay County1,197Buttigieg29.9%Harris18.1%
Camden County1,101Harris27.6%Buttigieg18.0%
Alleghany County985Buttigieg26.0%Harris20.2%
Hyde County647Harris62.4%Ossoff7.9%
Graham County611Buttigieg25.5%Harris19.2%
Tyrrell County484Harris70.2%Ossoff5.9%