2028 forecast · Montana · President · 4 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Montana.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +3.9 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +2.7 and R +10.7. Projected votes: 299,159 Democratic, 323,635 Republican, 17,246 other, 640,040 in all.
22%Democratic win chance
R +3.92028 margin
R +20.62024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +20.6 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +5.4 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.6 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.7% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.4 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.5 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +3.9 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 602,963 in 2024, 640,040 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Montana| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +1.9 | 36% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +2.5 | 32% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +2.7 | 31% |
| CooperHYP | R +2.8 | 29% |
| BeshearHYP | R +3.2 | 27% |
| WalzHYP | R +3.3 | 26% |
| Cuban | R +3.3 | 26% |
| BrownHYP | R +3.4 | 26% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +3.5 | 25% |
| KellyHYP | R +3.6 | 24% |
| BookerHYP | R +3.7 | 24% |
| KhannaHYP | R +3.9 | 23% |
| Generic Democrat | R +3.9 | 23% |
| MurphyHYP | R +3.9 | 23% |
| Harris | R +4.0 | 22% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| PolisHYP | R +4.0 | 22% |
| Ossoff | R +4.1 | 22% |
| GallegoHYP | R +4.4 | 20% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +4.4 | 20% |
| Shapiro | R +4.5 | 19% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.7 | 18% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +4.8 | 18% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +5.2 | 16% |
| CrockettHYP | R +5.3 | 16% |
| MooreHYP | R +5.4 | 15% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +5.4 | 15% |
| Newsom | R +6.2 | 12% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +8.1 | 6% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Montana| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +2.5 | 32% |
| CottonHYP | R +2.5 | 32% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +2.5 | 31% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +2.6 | 31% |
| Rubio | R +2.8 | 29% |
| CruzHYP | R +2.9 | 29% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +3.0 | 29% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +3.0 | 28% |
| KempHYP | R +3.1 | 28% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +3.3 | 27% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +3.4 | 26% |
| Vance | R +3.9 | 23% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +4.1 | 22% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
56 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellowstone County | R +28.0 | R +11.2 | R +4 to R +19 | 36,899 | 46,248 | 85,450 | R +0.27 | D +0.40 |
| Gallatin County | D +3.3 | D +19.5 | D +27 to D +12 | 45,899 | 30,893 | 79,088 | Even | D +0.23 |
| Missoula County | D +22.2 | D +39.7 | D +47 to D +32 | 53,478 | 23,088 | 78,915 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Flathead County | R +34.7 | R +14.1 | R +6 to R +22 | 28,741 | 38,161 | 68,533 | R +0.33 | D +0.96 |
| Lewis and Clark County | R +5.9 | D +10.8 | D +18 to D +3 | 23,864 | 19,210 | 44,376 | R +0.31 | D +0.29 |
| Cascade County | R +23.0 | R +12.0 | R +4 to R +20 | 16,375 | 20,836 | 38,216 | R +0.28 | D +0.09 |
| Ravalli County | R +41.7 | R +24.5 | R +17 to R +32 | 11,694 | 19,292 | 31,720 | R +0.39 | D +1.07 |
| Silver Bow County | D +7.3 | D +16.2 | D +24 to D +8 | 10,641 | 7,679 | 18,939 | R +0.29 | D +0.08 |
| Lake County | R +20.6 | R +6.0 | D +2 to R +14 | 8,118 | 9,154 | 17,725 | R +0.16 | D +0.56 |
| Lincoln County | R +54.6 | R +39.6 | R +32 to R +48 | 3,722 | 8,602 | 12,579 | R +0.41 | D +1.72 |
| Park County | R +8.0 | D +11.5 | D +19 to D +4 | 6,605 | 5,242 | 12,172 | R +0.40 | D +0.32 |
| Jefferson County | R +37.6 | R +18.8 | R +11 to R +27 | 3,526 | 5,157 | 8,903 | R +0.35 | D +0.99 |
| Sanders County | R +56.6 | R +41.6 | R +34 to R +50 | 2,468 | 5,983 | 8,652 | R +0.39 | D +1.77 |
| Carbon County | R +33.5 | R +14.2 | R +7 to R +22 | 3,208 | 4,271 | 7,680 | R +0.43 | D +0.91 |
| Madison County | R +46.4 | R +27.5 | R +20 to R +35 | 2,519 | 4,431 | 7,104 | R +0.42 | D +1.75 |
| Hill County | R +19.0 | R +8.1 | R +0 to R +16 | 3,076 | 3,615 | 6,932 | R +0.07 | Even |
| Fergus County | R +53.1 | R +39.2 | R +31 to R +47 | 2,020 | 4,628 | 6,834 | R +0.35 | D +0.51 |
| Beaverhead County | R +44.9 | R +29.4 | R +22 to R +37 | 2,148 | 3,936 | 6,255 | R +0.27 | D +0.83 |
| Stillwater County | R +63.3 | R +43.0 | R +35 to R +51 | 1,700 | 4,265 | 6,101 | R +0.29 | D +0.85 |
| Custer County | R +50.5 | R +33.5 | R +26 to R +41 | 1,895 | 3,801 | 5,864 | R +0.30 | D +0.24 |
| Broadwater County | R +62.0 | R +39.4 | R +32 to R +47 | 1,695 | 3,899 | 5,745 | R +0.26 | D +3.00 |
| Richland County | R +69.9 | R +53.6 | R +46 to R +61 | 1,204 | 3,985 | 5,311 | R +0.17 | D +0.07 |
| Glacier County | D +20.4 | D +33.6 | D +42 to D +26 | 3,310 | 1,646 | 5,115 | D +0.60 | Even |
| Deer Lodge County | D +1.0 | D +9.4 | D +17 to D +2 | 2,610 | 2,163 | 4,914 | R +0.45 | D +0.15 |
| Dawson County | R +60.5 | R +48.2 | R +40 to R +56 | 1,157 | 3,313 | 4,570 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Big Horn County | R +1.8 | D +10.9 | D +19 to D +3 | 2,409 | 1,936 | 4,476 | D +0.69 | Even |
| Valley County | R +52.7 | R +40.6 | R +33 to R +48 | 1,141 | 2,703 | 3,947 | R +0.30 | Even |
| Roosevelt County | R +10.0 | D +3.8 | D +12 to R +4 | 1,942 | 1,801 | 3,879 | D +0.57 | Even |
| Teton County | R +46.4 | R +33.1 | R +25 to R +41 | 1,198 | 2,384 | 3,674 | R +0.35 | D +0.57 |
| Rosebud County | R +38.5 | R +26.9 | R +19 to R +35 | 1,297 | 2,252 | 3,652 | D +0.07 | D +0.10 |
| Musselshell County | R +73.1 | R +54.9 | R +47 to R +63 | 741 | 2,545 | 3,350 | R +0.25 | D +2.64 |
| Powell County | R +55.3 | R +37.4 | R +30 to R +45 | 1,017 | 2,234 | 3,342 | R +0.24 | D +0.44 |
| Mineral County | R +49.7 | R +33.3 | R +26 to R +41 | 993 | 1,983 | 3,059 | R +0.43 | D +1.69 |
| Blaine County | R +6.2 | D +6.4 | D +14 to R +1 | 1,542 | 1,356 | 3,003 | D +0.26 | Even |
| Pondera County | R +43.2 | R +32.7 | R +25 to R +41 | 948 | 1,870 | 2,897 | R +0.27 | D +0.37 |
| Chouteau County | R +33.5 | R +22.2 | R +14 to R +30 | 1,092 | 1,715 | 2,893 | R +0.26 | Even |
| Sweet Grass County | R +54.6 | R +38.4 | R +31 to R +46 | 720 | 1,620 | 2,396 | R +0.32 | D +0.37 |
| Granite County | R +45.3 | R +29.2 | R +22 to R +37 | 795 | 1,449 | 2,298 | R +0.40 | D +1.23 |
| Phillips County | R +64.0 | R +47.0 | R +39 to R +55 | 553 | 1,538 | 2,134 | R +0.25 | D +0.09 |
| Toole County | R +58.2 | R +43.6 | R +36 to R +52 | 586 | 1,495 | 2,134 | R +0.18 | D +0.60 |
| Sheridan County | R +44.4 | R +30.0 | R +22 to R +38 | 621 | 1,155 | 1,835 | R +0.34 | D +0.06 |
| Fallon County | R +77.8 | R +68.2 | R +60 to R +76 | 233 | 1,236 | 1,501 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Judith Basin County | R +59.7 | R +42.4 | R +35 to R +50 | 398 | 986 | 1,418 | R +0.30 | D +1.01 |
| Meagher County | R +55.2 | R +40.2 | R +33 to R +48 | 362 | 850 | 1,237 | R +0.44 | D +1.51 |
| Powder River County | R +76.1 | R +59.5 | R +52 to R +67 | 226 | 889 | 1,128 | R +0.22 | D +1.03 |
| Wheatland County | R +60.3 | R +49.0 | R +41 to R +57 | 266 | 780 | 1,073 | R +0.40 | D +0.42 |
| McCone County | R +75.7 | R +59.6 | R +52 to R +68 | 206 | 817 | 1,041 | R +0.24 | D +0.16 |
| Liberty County | R +55.7 | R +39.3 | R +32 to R +47 | 288 | 661 | 967 | R +0.34 | D +0.07 |
| Daniels County | R +67.0 | R +51.4 | R +44 to R +59 | 214 | 667 | 898 | R +0.32 | Even |
| Carter County | R +82.0 | R +68.1 | R +60 to R +76 | 128 | 676 | 819 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Garfield County | R +90.2 | R +71.4 | R +63 to R +79 | 110 | 663 | 779 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Prairie County | R +63.5 | R +54.0 | R +46 to R +62 | 147 | 492 | 654 | R +0.41 | D +0.63 |
| Golden Valley County | R +73.6 | R +58.0 | R +50 to R +66 | 105 | 397 | 510 | R +0.26 | D +0.56 |
| Wibaux County | R +73.4 | R +53.6 | R +46 to R +61 | 116 | 385 | 510 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Treasure County | R +73.1 | R +53.6 | R +46 to R +61 | 94 | 313 | 420 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Petroleum County | R +76.9 | R +56.4 | R +49 to R +64 | 73 | 262 | 339 | R +0.24 | D +1.63 |