2028 forecast · Montana · Democratic primary

Montana Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 58% of runs

55.6%Harris's projected share

157,972Projected primary votes

4Calendar window: votes fourth, after mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	55.6%	87,854	58%	5.1%
Buttigieg	11.2%	17,686	15%	17.3%
Newsom	10.6%	16,812	13%	10.8%
Ocasio-Cortez	5.8%	9,177	7%	10.0%
Ossoff	5.1%	8,052	6%	4.6%
Kelly	0.4%	695	1%	7.3%
Shapiro	0.2%	316	<1%	6.8%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Montana votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

Harris

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Montana

Progressive39%

Institutional16%

Democratic leaning independents14%

Working class and union13%

Civil rights coalition7%

Moderate independents3%

Black 0.7%, Hispanic 2.3%, Asian and other 4.3%, under 30 12.3%, 65 and up 33.6%, college graduates 46.4%, women 54.6%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 149,973 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 157,972 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Missoula County	22,823	Harris	55.0%	Buttigieg	11.5%
Gallatin County	21,029	Harris	54.7%	Buttigieg	11.7%
Yellowstone County	20,923	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Flathead County	15,600	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Lewis and Clark County	12,108	Harris	55.4%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Cascade County	9,827	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Ravalli County	6,980	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Silver Bow County	5,334	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Lake County	4,456	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Park County	3,317	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Lincoln County	2,434	Harris	56.8%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Jefferson County	1,996	Harris	55.9%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Carbon County	1,808	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Hill County	1,772	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Sanders County	1,650	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Glacier County	1,471	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Madison County	1,457	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Fergus County	1,416	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Deer Lodge County	1,389	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Beaverhead County	1,351	Harris	55.5%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Custer County	1,265	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Big Horn County	1,239	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Stillwater County	1,179	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Roosevelt County	1,038	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Richland County	974	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Broadwater County	960	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Dawson County	918	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Valley County	870	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Rosebud County	857	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Blaine County	827	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Teton County	798	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Chouteau County	704	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Powell County	684	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Pondera County	640	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Mineral County	614	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Musselshell County	534	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Sweet Grass County	498	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Granite County	496	Harris	55.8%	Buttigieg	11.1%
Sheridan County	433	Harris	56.1%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Toole County	425	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Phillips County	423	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Judith Basin County	278	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Meagher County	250	Harris	56.2%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Fallon County	246	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Wheatland County	214	Harris	56.5%	Buttigieg	10.7%
Liberty County	203	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%
Powder River County	188	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.8%
McCone County	185	Harris	56.4%	Buttigieg	10.8%
Daniels County	180	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Carter County	136	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Prairie County	131	Harris	56.3%	Buttigieg	10.9%
Garfield County	114	Harris	56.6%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Wibaux County	100	Harris	56.7%	Buttigieg	10.6%
Golden Valley County	91	Harris	56.9%	Buttigieg	10.5%
Treasure County	83	Harris	55.6%	Buttigieg	11.2%
Petroleum County	56	Harris	56.0%	Buttigieg	11.0%

NewsomFavorite, wins 28% of runs

26.2%Newsom's projected share