2028 forecast · Mississippi · Democratic primary

Mississippi Democratic primary

Projected shares and votes from county primary electorates built from our national dataset, simulated on the calendar with momentum and dropouts.

HarrisFavorite, wins 99% of runs

64.0%Harris's projected share

322,251Projected primary votes

3Calendar window: votes third, in mid March

Candidates

4,000 primary runs

Candidate	Share	Votes	Win	Full field
Harris	64.0%	206,227	99%	57.2%
Ossoff	7.2%	23,306	1%	4.9%
Newsom	5.8%	18,837	<1%	3.4%
Buttigieg	4.7%	15,262	<1%	1.3%
Ocasio-Cortez	3.4%	10,849	<1%	1.2%
Kelly	1.9%	6,178	<1%	2.6%
Shapiro	1.1%	3,670	<1%	1.8%
Beshear	0.5%	1,512	<1%	2.6%

Share and votes average the simulated races, including dropouts before Mississippi votes. Full field is the share if every candidate were still running. Undecided and minor candidates hold about 11%.

County leaders

deeper shade, bigger share

HarrisButtigieg

Who votes in this primary

our national dataset, placed in Mississippi

Progressive31%

Working class and union21%

Institutional17%

Democratic leaning independents15%

Civil rights coalition8%

Moderate independents3%

Black 53.9%, Hispanic 0.9%, Asian and other 1%, under 30 13.9%, 65 and up 29.4%, college graduates 30%, women 54.4%.

Turnout

projected 2028 votes

The last open Democratic contest, in 2020, cast 274,391 votes in a primary. 2028 is modeled as a primary, blending that count with the participation model and growing it for 2028: 322,251 votes.

Every county

largest first

County	Votes	Leader	Share	Second	Share
Hinds County	37,729	Harris	79.9%	Ossoff	4.5%
DeSoto County	20,227	Harris	61.6%	Ossoff	8.3%
Harrison County	17,036	Harris	51.4%	Newsom	9.6%
Madison County	15,916	Harris	59.9%	Ossoff	8.4%
Rankin County	13,746	Harris	46.7%	Newsom	10.7%
Jackson County	10,506	Harris	45.4%	Newsom	10.7%
Lee County	7,935	Harris	56.2%	Ossoff	8.9%
Lauderdale County	7,626	Harris	70.0%	Ossoff	6.6%
Forrest County	7,529	Harris	57.7%	Ossoff	10.3%
Lowndes County	7,385	Harris	69.5%	Ossoff	7.3%
Washington County	6,223	Harris	81.5%	Ossoff	3.5%
Warren County	5,893	Harris	72.2%	Ossoff	7.2%
Jones County	5,803	Harris	58.7%	Ossoff	8.4%
Lafayette County	5,490	Harris	32.9%	Ocasio-Cortez	13.6%
Lamar County	5,477	Harris	43.9%	Newsom	11.2%
Oktibbeha County	5,368	Harris	44.1%	Ossoff	17.1%
Pike County	5,099	Harris	76.7%	Ossoff	5.2%
Marshall County	4,508	Harris	73.6%	Ossoff	5.9%
Panola County	4,354	Harris	72.8%	Ossoff	7.2%
Adams County	4,258	Harris	77.7%	Ossoff	4.7%
Leflore County	4,150	Harris	81.2%	Ossoff	3.9%
Bolivar County	4,125	Harris	78.4%	Ossoff	4.8%
Copiah County	3,763	Harris	75.6%	Ossoff	5.5%
Monroe County	3,637	Harris	62.1%	Ossoff	8.7%
Pearl River County	3,510	Harris	36.6%	Buttigieg	13.6%
Lincoln County	3,407	Harris	61.4%	Ossoff	8.1%
Sunflower County	3,362	Harris	81.0%	Ossoff	4.0%
Clay County	3,298	Harris	78.6%	Ossoff	4.7%
Hancock County	3,144	Harris	28.0%	Buttigieg	20.1%
Yazoo County	3,119	Harris	78.2%	Ossoff	4.8%
Holmes County	3,116	Harris	82.1%	Ossoff	3.7%
Coahoma County	2,962	Harris	81.5%	Ossoff	3.6%
Grenada County	2,862	Harris	72.1%	Ossoff	6.3%
Tate County	2,758	Harris	56.8%	Ossoff	9.2%
Scott County	2,675	Harris	70.4%	Ossoff	6.7%
Simpson County	2,622	Harris	66.2%	Ossoff	7.3%
Jasper County	2,543	Harris	77.5%	Ossoff	4.7%
Marion County	2,502	Harris	65.5%	Ossoff	7.4%
Winston County	2,456	Harris	72.6%	Ossoff	6.8%
Wayne County	2,316	Harris	68.8%	Ossoff	7.1%
Leake County	2,290	Harris	70.5%	Ossoff	6.8%
Pontotoc County	2,157	Harris	42.7%	Ossoff	10.8%
Chickasaw County	2,153	Harris	74.6%	Ossoff	5.8%
Attala County	2,146	Harris	70.7%	Ossoff	7.5%
Covington County	2,137	Harris	64.9%	Ossoff	7.9%
Alcorn County	2,105	Harris	35.0%	Buttigieg	14.9%
Neshoba County	2,054	Harris	51.8%	Ossoff	10.5%
Newton County	2,054	Harris	59.2%	Ossoff	9.9%
Jefferson Davis County	1,978	Harris	80.5%	Ossoff	3.7%
Noxubee County	1,923	Harris	82.1%	Ossoff	3.4%
Tallahatchie County	1,834	Harris	79.6%	Ossoff	4.3%
Union County	1,789	Harris	38.7%	Buttigieg	12.6%
Amite County	1,755	Harris	74.0%	Ossoff	5.2%
Clarke County	1,750	Harris	64.0%	Ossoff	7.4%
Walthall County	1,736	Harris	72.4%	Ossoff	5.9%
Claiborne County	1,671	Harris	81.5%	Ossoff	4.2%
Humphreys County	1,570	Harris	82.6%	Ossoff	3.2%
Yalobusha County	1,552	Harris	68.9%	Ossoff	6.7%
Prentiss County	1,513	Harris	36.3%	Buttigieg	13.7%
Jefferson County	1,506	Harris	82.4%	Ossoff	3.5%
Kemper County	1,492	Harris	78.0%	Ossoff	4.8%
Tippah County	1,446	Harris	40.8%	Buttigieg	11.3%
Lawrence County	1,382	Harris	64.5%	Ossoff	7.6%
Smith County	1,344	Harris	55.6%	Ossoff	8.2%
George County	1,329	Harris	29.5%	Buttigieg	17.0%
Stone County	1,315	Harris	43.9%	Newsom	10.6%
Montgomery County	1,260	Harris	72.1%	Ossoff	6.8%
Calhoun County	1,246	Harris	62.8%	Ossoff	7.6%
Carroll County	1,205	Harris	69.1%	Ossoff	6.1%
Itawamba County	1,196	Harris	26.3%	Buttigieg	18.8%
Tunica County	1,187	Harris	82.8%	Ossoff	3.0%
Wilkinson County	1,172	Harris	81.5%	Ossoff	3.5%
Quitman County	1,161	Harris	82.0%	Ossoff	3.4%
Tishomingo County	987	Buttigieg	22.6%	Harris	22.5%
Benton County	982	Harris	71.2%	Ossoff	6.2%
Greene County	967	Harris	62.0%	Ossoff	8.0%
Franklin County	951	Harris	66.5%	Ossoff	7.1%
Perry County	895	Harris	47.8%	Newsom	9.7%
Webster County	825	Harris	46.8%	Newsom	9.9%
Choctaw County	801	Harris	61.4%	Ossoff	7.4%
Sharkey County	767	Harris	81.6%	Ossoff	3.7%
Issaquena County	233	Harris	81.4%	Ossoff	3.6%

OssoffFavorite, wins 75% of runs

33.3%Ossoff's projected share