2028 forecast · Mississippi · President · 6 electoral votes
The Republican is very likely to carry Mississippi.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +16.0 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between R +9.2 and R +22.9. Projected votes: 508,990 Democratic, 702,839 Republican, 14,283 other, 1,226,112 in all.
<1%Democratic win chance
R +16.02028 margin
R +23.12024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +23.1 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +10.3 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.2 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.9 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +16.0 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 1,228,008 in 2024, 1,226,113 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Mississippi| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| BeshearHYP | R +13.9 | <1% |
| WarnockHYP | R +13.9 | <1% |
| Harris | R +14.7 | <1% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +14.9 | <1% |
| BookerHYP | R +14.9 | <1% |
| CrockettHYP | R +15.0 | <1% |
| WalzHYP | R +15.3 | <1% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +15.5 | <1% |
| Cuban | R +15.6 | <1% |
| BrownHYP | R +15.7 | <1% |
| CooperHYP | R +15.8 | <1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +15.8 | <1% |
| Buttigieg | R +15.9 | <1% |
| Generic Democrat | R +16.0 | <1% |
| KellyHYP | R +16.0 | <1% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +16.1 | <1% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +16.2 | <1% |
| Ossoff | R +16.2 | <1% |
| GallegoHYP | R +16.3 | <1% |
| KhannaHYP | R +16.4 | <1% |
| MurphyHYP | R +16.5 | <1% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +16.5 | <1% |
| PolisHYP | R +16.6 | <1% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +16.6 | <1% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +16.8 | <1% |
| MooreHYP | R +16.8 | <1% |
| Shapiro | R +17.3 | <1% |
| Newsom | R +20.0 | <1% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +21.4 | <1% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Mississippi| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +11.6 | 1% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +13.3 | 1% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +13.7 | 1% |
| Rubio | R +13.8 | <1% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +13.9 | <1% |
| KempHYP | R +14.1 | <1% |
| CottonHYP | R +14.2 | <1% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +14.2 | <1% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +14.5 | <1% |
| CruzHYP | R +14.8 | <1% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +15.4 | <1% |
| Vance | R +16.0 | <1% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +16.2 | <1% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
82 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSoto County | R +24.7 | R +17.2 | R +10 to R +25 | 33,970 | 48,097 | 83,825 | D +0.18 | D +0.49 |
| Hinds County | D +46.7 | D +65.6 | D +75 to D +56 | 67,756 | 14,065 | 82,901 | D +0.69 | Even |
| Harrison County | R +29.2 | R +24.9 | R +17 to R +33 | 28,658 | 47,691 | 77,321 | Even | D +0.32 |
| Rankin County | R +47.6 | R +43.5 | R +36 to R +51 | 19,850 | 50,386 | 71,038 | R +0.08 | D +0.38 |
| Madison County | R +17.5 | R +3.5 | D +4 to R +11 | 27,693 | 29,702 | 58,128 | D +0.26 | D +0.35 |
| Jackson County | R +40.3 | R +35.4 | R +28 to R +43 | 16,889 | 35,398 | 52,924 | R +0.10 | D +0.33 |
| Lee County | R +39.3 | R +32.4 | R +25 to R +40 | 11,836 | 23,180 | 35,428 | Even | D +0.07 |
| Forrest County | R +18.2 | R +12.0 | R +4 to R +20 | 12,899 | 16,414 | 29,758 | D +0.41 | D +0.05 |
| Lamar County | R +49.4 | R +43.8 | R +36 to R +51 | 8,144 | 20,864 | 29,396 | R +0.06 | D +0.57 |
| Jones County | R +47.2 | R +44.7 | R +37 to R +53 | 7,514 | 19,647 | 27,408 | Even | Even |
| Lauderdale County | R +21.4 | R +12.1 | R +4 to R +20 | 11,465 | 14,624 | 26,346 | D +0.20 | Even |
| Lafayette County | R +22.1 | R +14.1 | R +6 to R +22 | 11,014 | 14,617 | 26,074 | D +0.26 | D +0.42 |
| Pearl River County | R +67.4 | R +65.1 | R +57 to R +73 | 4,376 | 20,678 | 25,333 | R +0.20 | D +0.90 |
| Lowndes County | R +8.2 | D +2.6 | D +11 to R +5 | 12,190 | 11,575 | 24,026 | D +0.39 | Even |
| Hancock County | R +59.3 | R +55.0 | R +47 to R +63 | 4,636 | 15,973 | 20,857 | R +0.31 | D +0.38 |
| Oktibbeha County | R +0.3 | D +8.5 | D +16 to D +1 | 10,411 | 8,783 | 19,525 | D +0.77 | D +0.07 |
| Warren County | R +4.0 | D +8.7 | D +17 to D +1 | 9,252 | 7,766 | 17,217 | D +0.34 | Even |
| Lincoln County | R +45.7 | R +41.5 | R +34 to R +50 | 4,567 | 11,058 | 15,753 | Even | D +0.09 |
| Monroe County | R +36.2 | R +35.4 | R +27 to R +44 | 4,973 | 10,433 | 15,540 | R +0.06 | Even |
| Marshall County | R +7.3 | D +1.7 | D +10 to R +7 | 7,692 | 7,434 | 15,267 | D +0.33 | D +0.17 |
| Pike County | R +3.5 | D +8.5 | D +17 to R +0 | 8,074 | 6,806 | 15,031 | D +0.49 | Even |
| Alcorn County | R +68.9 | R +67.4 | R +60 to R +75 | 2,377 | 12,219 | 14,738 | R +0.19 | D +0.11 |
| Pontotoc County | R +68.3 | R +65.4 | R +58 to R +73 | 2,457 | 11,760 | 14,357 | R +0.09 | D +0.39 |
| Panola County | R +15.0 | R +3.7 | D +5 to R +12 | 6,801 | 7,323 | 14,277 | D +0.35 | Even |
| Washington County | D +35.4 | D +51.6 | D +61 to D +42 | 10,029 | 3,201 | 13,372 | D +0.64 | Even |
| Tate County | R +44.2 | R +39.1 | R +31 to R +47 | 4,008 | 9,144 | 13,291 | D +0.06 | D +0.30 |
| Union County | R +70.8 | R +67.6 | R +60 to R +75 | 2,042 | 10,568 | 12,738 | R +0.12 | D +0.42 |
| George County | R +79.3 | R +75.6 | R +68 to R +84 | 1,427 | 10,277 | 11,801 | R +0.11 | D +1.27 |
| Copiah County | R +6.1 | D +5.7 | D +14 to R +3 | 5,892 | 5,261 | 11,262 | D +0.47 | D +0.05 |
| Adams County | D +14.1 | D +27.6 | D +36 to D +19 | 7,067 | 4,013 | 11,185 | D +0.49 | D +0.05 |
| Marion County | R +42.0 | R +40.5 | R +32 to R +49 | 3,231 | 7,622 | 10,958 | Even | Even |
| Simpson County | R +36.9 | R +33.2 | R +25 to R +41 | 3,605 | 7,189 | 10,876 | D +0.05 | Even |
| Itawamba County | R +80.5 | R +76.1 | R +68 to R +84 | 1,283 | 9,437 | 10,809 | R +0.13 | D +0.30 |
| Neshoba County | R +51.3 | R +47.2 | R +39 to R +55 | 2,801 | 7,812 | 10,709 | Even | Even |
| Prentiss County | R +66.5 | R +63.2 | R +55 to R +71 | 1,913 | 8,476 | 10,479 | R +0.15 | D +0.23 |
| Bolivar County | D +23.9 | D +39.8 | D +49 to D +31 | 6,772 | 2,912 | 9,767 | D +0.70 | Even |
| Scott County | R +24.1 | R +16.6 | R +8 to R +25 | 4,026 | 5,628 | 9,732 | D +0.27 | D +0.12 |
| Grenada County | R +16.4 | R +8.4 | R +0 to R +17 | 4,302 | 5,090 | 9,461 | D +0.30 | Even |
| Tippah County | R +67.5 | R +64.8 | R +57 to R +73 | 1,640 | 7,677 | 9,392 | R +0.12 | D +0.08 |
| Newton County | R +43.7 | R +41.9 | R +34 to R +50 | 2,672 | 6,521 | 9,279 | D +0.12 | Even |
| Wayne County | R +33.0 | R +29.3 | R +21 to R +38 | 3,187 | 5,825 | 9,097 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Clay County | D +10.5 | D +25.0 | D +34 to D +16 | 5,548 | 3,326 | 8,962 | D +0.60 | Even |
| Leflore County | D +38.8 | D +56.3 | D +66 to D +47 | 6,832 | 1,908 | 8,828 | D +0.75 | Even |
| Tishomingo County | R +79.5 | R +77.2 | R +69 to R +85 | 988 | 7,698 | 8,768 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Covington County | R +33.5 | R +31.3 | R +23 to R +39 | 2,970 | 5,673 | 8,720 | D +0.13 | Even |
| Stone County | R +58.6 | R +53.6 | R +46 to R +62 | 1,935 | 6,412 | 8,445 | R +0.09 | D +0.96 |
| Leake County | R +23.6 | R +17.6 | R +9 to R +26 | 3,411 | 4,864 | 8,340 | D +0.29 | D +0.12 |
| Winston County | R +18.4 | R +9.7 | R +1 to R +18 | 3,677 | 4,464 | 8,215 | D +0.23 | Even |
| Yazoo County | R +2.4 | D +14.1 | D +23 to D +5 | 4,490 | 3,381 | 7,941 | D +0.55 | Even |
| Jasper County | R +5.1 | D +4.5 | D +13 to R +4 | 3,925 | 3,585 | 7,569 | D +0.32 | Even |
| Smith County | R +61.1 | R +59.8 | R +52 to R +68 | 1,493 | 5,935 | 7,482 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Attala County | R +23.4 | R +15.9 | R +8 to R +24 | 3,089 | 4,256 | 7,406 | D +0.22 | Even |
| Clarke County | R +35.4 | R +35.6 | R +28 to R +44 | 2,327 | 4,901 | 7,285 | Even | Even |
| Sunflower County | D +35.7 | D +52.7 | D +62 to D +43 | 5,481 | 1,700 | 7,237 | D +0.77 | Even |
| Chickasaw County | R +13.8 | R +5.5 | D +3 to R +14 | 3,325 | 3,710 | 7,108 | D +0.32 | Even |
| Amite County | R +33.3 | R +30.8 | R +22 to R +39 | 2,232 | 4,221 | 6,528 | Even | Even |
| Walthall County | R +27.2 | R +23.4 | R +15 to R +32 | 2,449 | 3,944 | 6,454 | D +0.14 | D +0.11 |
| Holmes County | D +62.7 | D +81.5 | D +92 to D +71 | 5,732 | 584 | 6,383 | D +0.53 | Even |
| Coahoma County | D +40.2 | D +57.1 | D +67 to D +48 | 4,884 | 1,332 | 6,282 | D +0.70 | R +0.07 |
| Lawrence County | R +36.8 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 1,885 | 4,006 | 5,939 | Even | Even |
| Yalobusha County | R +21.2 | R +18.6 | R +10 to R +27 | 2,316 | 3,374 | 5,759 | D +0.07 | Even |
| Calhoun County | R +48.3 | R +48.1 | R +40 to R +56 | 1,469 | 4,197 | 5,714 | R +0.05 | Even |
| Greene County | R +70.2 | R +67.0 | R +59 to R +75 | 934 | 4,729 | 5,707 | Even | D +0.21 |
| Perry County | R +60.8 | R +56.7 | R +48 to R +65 | 1,179 | 4,272 | 5,494 | R +0.16 | D +0.19 |
| Webster County | R +65.6 | R +64.1 | R +56 to R +72 | 924 | 4,219 | 5,181 | R +0.12 | D +0.42 |
| Jefferson Davis County | D +13.8 | D +26.9 | D +36 to D +18 | 3,243 | 1,870 | 5,154 | D +0.48 | Even |
| Carroll County | R +44.5 | R +40.3 | R +32 to R +48 | 1,401 | 3,296 | 4,733 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Tallahatchie County | D +6.0 | D +20.2 | D +29 to D +11 | 2,635 | 1,748 | 4,429 | D +0.65 | Even |
| Noxubee County | D +47.9 | D +63.0 | D +73 to D +53 | 3,465 | 785 | 4,284 | D +0.56 | Even |
| Montgomery County | R +21.0 | R +15.2 | R +7 to R +23 | 1,761 | 2,395 | 4,188 | D +0.17 | Even |
| Kemper County | D +16.9 | D +31.6 | D +40 to D +23 | 2,606 | 1,355 | 3,985 | D +0.70 | Even |
| Franklin County | R +40.0 | R +38.1 | R +30 to R +46 | 1,212 | 2,704 | 3,946 | Even | Even |
| Choctaw County | R +49.8 | R +49.2 | R +41 to R +57 | 940 | 2,760 | 3,740 | R +0.10 | Even |
| Benton County | R +31.6 | R +26.6 | R +18 to R +35 | 1,357 | 2,340 | 3,727 | Even | Even |
| Claiborne County | D +68.2 | D +86.2 | D +97 to D +76 | 3,068 | 227 | 3,328 | D +0.59 | Even |
| Humphreys County | D +42.3 | D +58.3 | D +68 to D +49 | 2,492 | 656 | 3,180 | D +0.59 | Even |
| Jefferson County | D +66.9 | D +83.0 | D +93 to D +73 | 2,873 | 267 | 3,171 | D +0.43 | Even |
| Wilkinson County | D +25.7 | D +39.7 | D +49 to D +30 | 1,829 | 789 | 2,650 | D +0.63 | Even |
| Tunica County | D +39.4 | D +57.1 | D +67 to D +47 | 1,923 | 525 | 2,477 | D +0.63 | Even |
| Quitman County | D +31.3 | D +46.6 | D +56 to D +37 | 1,736 | 631 | 2,405 | D +0.70 | Even |
| Sharkey County | D +37.1 | D +53.5 | D +63 to D +44 | 1,202 | 363 | 1,579 | D +0.75 | Even |
| Issaquena County | R +1.5 | D +12.7 | D +22 to D +3 | 323 | 250 | 596 | D +0.67 | Even |