2028 forecast · Missouri · President · 10 electoral votes
The Republican is likely to carry Missouri.
A generic Democrat against JD Vance: R +5.1 in the average of 20,000 county simulations, with 80% of runs between D +1.8 and R +12.0. Projected votes: 1,427,496 Democratic, 1,579,977 Republican, 45,254 other, 3,052,727 in all.
17%Democratic win chance
R +5.12028 margin
R +18.72024 actual
<1%Chance it is the tipping point
Every county
simulated marginD +40R +40
20,000 simulated elections
margin, R minus DFrom 2024 to 2028
| 2024 result | R +18.7 | Certified county votes. |
| National environment | R +2.7 | National swing by county elasticity, 2020 to 2024 trend and 2026 shifts. |
| Deaths and aging | 0.4 toward R | Older cohorts leave, every cohort ages four years. |
| New 18 to 21 voters | 0.6 toward D | 5.3% of the 2028 electorate here. |
| Life cycle drift | 0.3 toward R | Voters under 44 drifting a little right as they age. |
| Migration | 0.2 toward D | Movers in and out since 2020, carried to 2028. |
| 2028 model | R +5.1 | Includes Vance's own home and polling effects and the simulation's vote weighting. Votes: 2,993,596 in 2024, 3,052,729 projected. |
Democrats against Vance
Missouri| Democrat | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| Buttigieg | R +4.0 | 23% |
| Rob SandHYP | R +4.0 | 23% |
| TalaricoHYP | R +4.3 | 21% |
| Harris | R +4.3 | 21% |
| CooperHYP | R +4.3 | 21% |
| BeshearHYP | R +4.4 | 21% |
| BookerHYP | R +4.6 | 20% |
| Cuban | R +4.6 | 19% |
| WarnockHYP | R +4.8 | 18% |
| WalzHYP | R +4.9 | 18% |
| BrownHYP | R +4.9 | 18% |
| Ossoff | R +4.9 | 18% |
| WhitmerHYP | R +5.0 | 18% |
| Generic Democrat | R +5.1 | 17% |
| KellyHYP | R +5.2 | 17% |
| CrockettHYP | R +5.2 | 17% |
| EmanuelHYP | R +5.2 | 17% |
| GallegoHYP | R +5.3 | 16% |
| KhannaHYP | R +5.4 | 16% |
| MurphyHYP | R +5.4 | 16% |
| PolisHYP | R +5.4 | 16% |
| PritzkerHYP | R +5.7 | 14% |
| Shapiro | R +5.8 | 14% |
| El-SayedHYP | R +5.9 | 14% |
| KlobucharHYP | R +6.0 | 13% |
| Stephen A. Smith | R +6.1 | 13% |
| MooreHYP | R +6.3 | 12% |
| Newsom | R +7.5 | 8% |
| Ocasio-Cortez | R +9.2 | 4% |
Republicans against a generic Democrat
Missouri| Republican | Margin | D win |
|---|---|---|
| HaleyHYP | R +3.2 | 28% |
| YoungkinHYP | R +3.8 | 24% |
| CottonHYP | R +3.9 | 23% |
| Huckabee SandersHYP | R +4.0 | 23% |
| Rand PaulHYP | R +4.1 | 22% |
| KempHYP | R +4.1 | 22% |
| Rubio | R +4.2 | 22% |
| DeSantisHYP | R +4.3 | 21% |
| DonaldsHYP | R +4.4 | 21% |
| Tim ScottHYP | R +4.4 | 21% |
| CruzHYP | R +4.5 | 20% |
| Vance | R +5.1 | 17% |
| Trump Jr.HYP | R +5.1 | 17% |
HYP marks a candidate with no head to head polling: home state and 2026 midterm effects only.
Projected vote in every county
115 counties, largest first| County | 2024 | 2028 | 80% range | D votes | R votes | Total | Generations | Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis County | D +23.8 | D +45.0 | D +53 to D +37 | 352,844 | 133,948 | 495,184 | D +0.18 | Even |
| Jackson County | D +19.6 | D +36.9 | D +45 to D +29 | 217,367 | 100,093 | 322,835 | D +0.22 | Even |
| St. Charles County | R +17.2 | R +0.3 | D +8 to R +8 | 115,709 | 116,458 | 235,832 | R +0.17 | D +0.32 |
| Greene County | R +21.1 | R +10.1 | R +2 to R +18 | 65,722 | 80,509 | 148,595 | R +0.19 | D +0.24 |
| Clay County | R +5.7 | D +8.4 | D +16 to D +1 | 72,152 | 60,909 | 135,336 | R +0.06 | D +0.21 |
| Jefferson County | R +37.2 | R +24.2 | R +16 to R +32 | 46,040 | 75,430 | 123,258 | R +0.28 | D +0.31 |
| St. Louis County | D +66.0 | D +89.1 | D +98 to D +81 | 100,198 | 5,779 | 107,931 | D +0.27 | R +0.11 |
| Boone County | D +10.0 | D +18.4 | D +26 to D +11 | 53,732 | 37,061 | 92,709 | R +0.05 | D +0.08 |
| Cass County | R +32.5 | R +18.8 | R +11 to R +27 | 25,383 | 37,158 | 63,501 | R +0.17 | D +0.67 |
| Platte County | R +3.2 | D +15.2 | D +23 to D +7 | 34,624 | 25,488 | 61,095 | R +0.06 | D +0.29 |
| Franklin County | R +46.4 | R +32.4 | R +24 to R +41 | 19,142 | 37,521 | 57,439 | R +0.28 | D +0.39 |
| Jasper County | R +47.4 | R +33.6 | R +26 to R +42 | 18,182 | 36,599 | 55,625 | R +0.13 | D +0.42 |
| Christian County | R +52.8 | R +34.8 | R +27 to R +43 | 17,615 | 36,453 | 54,771 | R +0.23 | D +1.05 |
| Cape Girardeau County | R +47.0 | R +36.2 | R +28 to R +44 | 13,034 | 27,841 | 41,413 | R +0.15 | D +0.31 |
| Cole County | R +34.9 | R +23.4 | R +16 to R +31 | 15,295 | 24,641 | 40,553 | R +0.09 | D +0.07 |
| Lincoln County | R +56.5 | R +43.5 | R +35 to R +52 | 9,883 | 25,129 | 35,483 | R +0.22 | D +1.44 |
| Buchanan County | R +28.4 | R +19.4 | R +11 to R +28 | 13,966 | 20,706 | 35,247 | R +0.13 | D +0.07 |
| Newton County | R +59.2 | R +46.6 | R +39 to R +55 | 8,045 | 22,079 | 30,489 | R +0.14 | D +0.74 |
| St. Francois County | R +51.9 | R +45.2 | R +37 to R +54 | 7,896 | 20,910 | 29,155 | R +0.20 | D +0.18 |
| Taney County | R +59.9 | R +49.3 | R +41 to R +57 | 6,873 | 20,222 | 27,405 | R +0.16 | D +0.26 |
| Camden County | R +54.8 | R +41.9 | R +34 to R +50 | 7,582 | 18,500 | 26,367 | R +0.24 | D +0.40 |
| Johnson County | R +40.1 | R +32.8 | R +25 to R +41 | 8,113 | 16,048 | 24,570 | R +0.15 | D +0.47 |
| Callaway County | R +43.9 | R +35.5 | R +27 to R +44 | 7,045 | 14,797 | 22,199 | R +0.20 | D +0.38 |
| Warren County | R +50.0 | R +36.9 | R +29 to R +45 | 6,815 | 14,780 | 21,879 | R +0.22 | D +1.12 |
| Webster County | R +62.8 | R +52.5 | R +44 to R +61 | 5,080 | 16,306 | 21,630 | R +0.20 | D +1.35 |
| Stone County | R +61.8 | R +47.3 | R +39 to R +55 | 5,221 | 14,595 | 20,006 | R +0.21 | D +0.65 |
| Howell County | R +67.3 | R +56.5 | R +48 to R +65 | 4,207 | 15,147 | 19,561 | R +0.18 | D +0.42 |
| Phelps County | R +43.5 | R +35.2 | R +27 to R +43 | 6,185 | 12,916 | 19,398 | R +0.20 | D +0.13 |
| Pettis County | R +49.5 | R +40.5 | R +32 to R +49 | 5,643 | 13,341 | 19,287 | R +0.15 | D +0.29 |
| Lawrence County | R +64.4 | R +53.7 | R +45 to R +62 | 4,385 | 14,557 | 19,160 | R +0.16 | D +0.56 |
| Butler County | R +64.3 | R +56.6 | R +48 to R +65 | 3,857 | 13,919 | 17,962 | R +0.13 | Even |
| Scott County | R +59.3 | R +50.2 | R +42 to R +58 | 4,330 | 13,067 | 17,549 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Laclede County | R +67.4 | R +56.6 | R +48 to R +65 | 3,769 | 13,593 | 17,564 | R +0.18 | D +0.39 |
| Lafayette County | R +49.5 | R +38.0 | R +30 to R +46 | 5,374 | 11,967 | 17,600 | R +0.23 | D +0.21 |
| Barry County | R +64.1 | R +53.1 | R +45 to R +62 | 3,913 | 12,788 | 16,887 | R +0.13 | D +0.67 |
| Polk County | R +62.3 | R +53.9 | R +46 to R +62 | 3,811 | 12,721 | 16,758 | R +0.20 | D +0.89 |
| Pulaski County | R +50.9 | R +40.1 | R +32 to R +48 | 4,660 | 10,895 | 15,789 | D +0.11 | D +0.13 |
| Stoddard County | R +74.3 | R +64.3 | R +56 to R +73 | 2,403 | 11,067 | 13,579 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Miller County | R +67.9 | R +55.1 | R +47 to R +63 | 3,017 | 10,416 | 13,579 | R +0.20 | D +0.66 |
| Marion County | R +53.4 | R +45.7 | R +38 to R +54 | 3,562 | 9,550 | 13,268 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Texas County | R +72.2 | R +63.6 | R +55 to R +72 | 2,206 | 9,904 | 12,222 | R +0.13 | D +0.96 |
| Ray County | R +49.2 | R +41.7 | R +33 to R +50 | 3,414 | 8,301 | 11,878 | R +0.25 | D +0.16 |
| Clinton County | R +48.5 | R +36.0 | R +28 to R +44 | 3,648 | 7,750 | 11,562 | R +0.25 | D +0.31 |
| Benton County | R +59.5 | R +51.9 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,713 | 8,566 | 11,394 | R +0.22 | D +0.80 |
| Henry County | R +53.1 | R +44.9 | R +37 to R +53 | 3,083 | 8,111 | 11,330 | R +0.23 | D +0.44 |
| Randolph County | R +52.8 | R +45.1 | R +37 to R +54 | 2,994 | 7,919 | 11,069 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Crawford County | R +62.7 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +62 | 2,528 | 8,263 | 10,899 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Washington County | R +65.6 | R +60.0 | R +51 to R +69 | 2,065 | 8,268 | 10,426 | R +0.20 | D +0.21 |
| Audrain County | R +48.2 | R +42.5 | R +34 to R +51 | 2,969 | 7,358 | 10,477 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Morgan County | R +60.3 | R +51.4 | R +43 to R +60 | 2,492 | 7,759 | 10,367 | R +0.21 | D +0.91 |
| Adair County | R +34.0 | R +29.4 | R +22 to R +37 | 3,564 | 6,536 | 10,253 | R +0.26 | D +0.14 |
| Andrew County | R +52.4 | R +39.0 | R +31 to R +47 | 3,006 | 6,844 | 9,990 | R +0.24 | D +0.11 |
| Perry County | R +63.9 | R +53.8 | R +46 to R +62 | 2,277 | 7,573 | 9,953 | R +0.22 | D +0.12 |
| Ste. Genevieve County | R +45.6 | R +40.0 | R +32 to R +48 | 2,950 | 6,880 | 9,964 | R +0.27 | D +0.16 |
| Dunklin County | R +62.2 | R +56.0 | R +47 to R +65 | 2,121 | 7,513 | 9,714 | R +0.08 | Even |
| Wright County | R +76.3 | R +67.1 | R +59 to R +76 | 1,573 | 7,998 | 9,665 | R +0.14 | D +1.29 |
| McDonald County | R +69.3 | R +60.3 | R +52 to R +69 | 1,859 | 7,504 | 9,461 | R +0.08 | D +0.29 |
| Nodaway County | R +44.2 | R +38.2 | R +30 to R +46 | 2,843 | 6,359 | 9,323 | R +0.26 | D +0.06 |
| Saline County | R +40.9 | R +34.4 | R +27 to R +43 | 3,002 | 6,157 | 9,284 | Even | D +0.10 |
| Vernon County | R +60.1 | R +51.8 | R +44 to R +60 | 2,171 | 6,838 | 9,115 | R +0.23 | D +0.18 |
| Cooper County | R +46.3 | R +37.9 | R +30 to R +46 | 2,740 | 6,081 | 8,939 | R +0.18 | D +0.06 |
| Dallas County | R +65.1 | R +54.0 | R +46 to R +62 | 2,026 | 6,774 | 8,897 | R +0.19 | D +0.81 |
| Bates County | R +62.2 | R +52.8 | R +44 to R +61 | 2,012 | 6,508 | 8,622 | R +0.20 | D +0.44 |
| Gasconade County | R +60.8 | R +51.9 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,920 | 6,066 | 8,073 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Pike County | R +58.3 | R +53.2 | R +45 to R +61 | 1,864 | 6,094 | 8,038 | R +0.15 | D +0.32 |
| Osage County | R +73.7 | R +61.1 | R +53 to R +69 | 1,535 | 6,356 | 7,968 | R +0.18 | D +0.45 |
| Macon County | R +61.9 | R +51.8 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,884 | 5,941 | 7,902 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Douglas County | R +72.5 | R +61.7 | R +53 to R +70 | 1,467 | 6,199 | 7,737 | R +0.16 | D +1.01 |
| Cedar County | R +70.2 | R +59.0 | R +51 to R +67 | 1,530 | 5,937 | 7,551 | R +0.17 | D +0.77 |
| Moniteau County | R +63.5 | R +52.8 | R +44 to R +61 | 1,704 | 5,521 | 7,316 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Dent County | R +70.9 | R +60.2 | R +52 to R +69 | 1,425 | 5,742 | 7,245 | R +0.17 | D +0.23 |
| Livingston County | R +58.3 | R +50.2 | R +42 to R +59 | 1,720 | 5,191 | 6,983 | R +0.19 | D +0.16 |
| New Madrid County | R +53.8 | R +50.0 | R +42 to R +58 | 1,596 | 4,782 | 6,431 | Even | Even |
| Bollinger County | R +75.3 | R +62.2 | R +54 to R +71 | 1,171 | 5,035 | 6,259 | R +0.16 | D +0.17 |
| Montgomery County | R +60.6 | R +50.0 | R +42 to R +58 | 1,527 | 4,581 | 6,174 | R +0.21 | D +0.37 |
| Barton County | R +72.6 | R +62.7 | R +54 to R +71 | 1,135 | 4,958 | 6,144 | R +0.15 | D +0.26 |
| Ripley County | R +73.5 | R +64.6 | R +56 to R +73 | 1,030 | 4,794 | 5,875 | R +0.17 | D +0.10 |
| Ralls County | R +59.7 | R +51.1 | R +43 to R +60 | 1,423 | 4,397 | 5,879 | R +0.24 | D +0.17 |
| Madison County | R +65.4 | R +57.7 | R +49 to R +66 | 1,226 | 4,577 | 5,864 | R +0.21 | D +0.26 |
| Wayne County | R +73.1 | R +65.7 | R +57 to R +74 | 991 | 4,782 | 5,819 | R +0.16 | Even |
| Linn County | R +57.9 | R +50.0 | R +42 to R +58 | 1,411 | 4,235 | 5,720 | R +0.22 | Even |
| Hickory County | R +61.5 | R +53.0 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,293 | 4,209 | 5,553 | R +0.21 | D +1.22 |
| St. Clair County | R +61.2 | R +53.8 | R +45 to R +62 | 1,218 | 4,052 | 5,329 | R +0.22 | D +0.99 |
| Ozark County | R +70.6 | R +59.4 | R +51 to R +68 | 1,027 | 4,031 | 5,107 | R +0.17 | D +1.08 |
| Pemiscot County | R +49.3 | R +44.8 | R +36 to R +53 | 1,364 | 3,575 | 4,972 | D +0.11 | D +0.05 |
| Howard County | R +45.0 | R +37.7 | R +30 to R +46 | 1,535 | 3,396 | 5,018 | R +0.18 | D +0.07 |
| Caldwell County | R +61.9 | R +51.3 | R +43 to R +60 | 1,160 | 3,608 | 4,825 | R +0.21 | D +0.33 |
| Maries County | R +68.2 | R +59.1 | R +51 to R +68 | 972 | 3,789 | 4,813 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Oregon County | R +69.6 | R +62.4 | R +54 to R +71 | 873 | 3,773 | 4,689 | R +0.17 | D +0.18 |
| Carroll County | R +64.9 | R +56.6 | R +48 to R +65 | 977 | 3,524 | 4,541 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Monroe County | R +60.4 | R +52.2 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,070 | 3,407 | 4,529 | R +0.20 | D +0.47 |
| Iron County | R +63.1 | R +54.9 | R +47 to R +63 | 995 | 3,420 | 4,468 | R +0.20 | Even |
| Lewis County | R +60.7 | R +55.4 | R +47 to R +64 | 983 | 3,428 | 4,465 | R +0.18 | Even |
| Grundy County | R +64.1 | R +56.2 | R +48 to R +65 | 957 | 3,413 | 4,414 | R +0.20 | Even |
| DeKalb County | R +63.4 | R +52.0 | R +44 to R +60 | 1,045 | 3,313 | 4,419 | R +0.12 | Even |
| Mississippi County | R +54.1 | R +48.4 | R +40 to R +57 | 1,108 | 3,190 | 4,334 | D +0.08 | Even |
| Dade County | R +67.7 | R +58.2 | R +50 to R +67 | 895 | 3,394 | 4,332 | R +0.18 | D +0.50 |
| Shannon County | R +68.7 | R +60.6 | R +52 to R +69 | 813 | 3,321 | 4,170 | R +0.17 | D +0.57 |
| Chariton County | R +56.8 | R +48.8 | R +41 to R +57 | 1,039 | 3,018 | 4,099 | R +0.23 | Even |
| Daviess County | R +63.9 | R +57.2 | R +49 to R +66 | 848 | 3,112 | 4,010 | R +0.22 | D +0.24 |
| Harrison County | R +72.1 | R +63.5 | R +55 to R +72 | 710 | 3,183 | 3,923 | R +0.18 | D +0.26 |
| Gentry County | R +62.3 | R +52.8 | R +45 to R +61 | 799 | 2,590 | 3,424 | R +0.21 | D +0.55 |
| Clark County | R +62.0 | R +55.3 | R +47 to R +64 | 729 | 2,536 | 3,299 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Shelby County | R +66.1 | R +58.8 | R +51 to R +67 | 649 | 2,504 | 3,183 | R +0.21 | Even |
| Reynolds County | R +68.9 | R +62.3 | R +54 to R +71 | 569 | 2,447 | 3,046 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Carter County | R +74.5 | R +66.8 | R +58 to R +76 | 491 | 2,471 | 2,982 | R +0.16 | D +0.68 |
| Atchison County | R +60.5 | R +50.8 | R +43 to R +59 | 651 | 1,995 | 2,682 | R +0.25 | Even |
| Sullivan County | R +66.6 | R +56.1 | R +48 to R +65 | 516 | 1,836 | 2,374 | R +0.07 | D +0.12 |
| Holt County | R +69.5 | R +60.7 | R +52 to R +69 | 459 | 1,881 | 2,359 | R +0.19 | Even |
| Putnam County | R +70.7 | R +58.0 | R +50 to R +66 | 489 | 1,843 | 2,348 | R +0.17 | Even |
| Schuyler County | R +65.2 | R +58.8 | R +50 to R +68 | 407 | 1,570 | 2,002 | R +0.24 | D +0.42 |
| Scotland County | R +62.2 | R +55.6 | R +47 to R +64 | 429 | 1,507 | 1,962 | R +0.25 | D +0.29 |
| Knox County | R +65.3 | R +61.3 | R +53 to R +70 | 348 | 1,453 | 1,823 | R +0.24 | Even |
| Mercer County | R +73.6 | R +66.1 | R +58 to R +75 | 292 | 1,432 | 1,738 | R +0.17 | D +0.11 |
| Worth County | R +65.3 | R +56.1 | R +48 to R +65 | 236 | 842 | 1,090 | R +0.24 | Even |